 resident
Bush and President Vladimir Putin have looked into each other's soul,
and admired what they have seen there. A love-in is replacing the
more usual formalities of high diplomacy. A seismic event like September
11 can bring about unforeseeable consequences of this kind, and that
is altogether to the good. But both presidents are very level-headed,
and behind the lovey rhetoric is a community of interest. Islamic
extremism in the Caucasus threatens the unity of the Russian Federation.
Terrorists, presumed to be Chechens, have bombed apartment buildings
in Moscow and elsewhere, with huge loss of life. Al Qaeda and other
networks spill across the borders to destabilize the Central Asian
republics. When Putin says that he wants to see terrorism "destroyed,
uprooted, liquidated," the verbs may sound Soviet, but they are
to the point.
The former
Russian president, Boris Yeltsin, believed that he could play Europe
off against the United States. To that end, he kicked up a huge
fuss about the admission to NATO of eastern European countries once
in the Soviet empire and, prospectively, of the Baltic republics.
Putin has been quick to perceive that the Europeans are absorbed
in games of hide-and-seek in Brussels and have little or nothing
to offer Russia. NATO has verbalized about Islamic terror, but has
no effective role in Afghanistan. With the exception of Britain,
the Europeans are happy to posture, and Putin is leaving them to
it. Better, more productive, for him to turn to the United States,
to declare a cost-free willingness to consider Russian membership
in NATO and to negotiate new terms for nuclear-arms control and
to allow for a missile defense that is going to be put in place
anyhow.
Russia is not
going to enjoy democracy and capitalism for years to come. But again
unlike Yeltsin, Putin is laying proper foundations for a future
of freedom and prosperity. He has neutered the rump of the Communist
party that until recently obstructed the Duma (the parliament).
He has brought to heel some of the more abusive oligarchs and provincial
governors. He has cut taxes. Economic growth is impressive, and
Putin is proposing the country's oil and natural-gas resources as
a secure alternative to Middle Eastern sources. All that is required
in order to cement a brilliant new partnership, he likes to say,
is that the United States shed its past fears. At face value, this
is what a complete political somersault looks like.
When the death
of a rival statesman was announced, the great Prince Metternich,
then the Austrian chancellor, asked, "I wonder what he means
by that." We may wonder quite what Putin means with the obituary
of yesterday's Russia that he is proclaiming. Russia has always
been a master of grand strategy, highly skilled at gathering and
projecting power even in disadvantageous circumstances, as today.
Actions are what counts. Russia is selling nuclear technology to
Iran and arms to Iraq, and further arguing that sanctions ought
to be lifted. These sales are depicted as legitimate business. Both
cases have the potential for a future crisis on a far larger scale
than the crackdown on the Taliban and al Qaeda.
Having said
that, and keeping fingers crossed, it is a relief as novel as it
is extraordinary to be worrying about the possible perils of close
Russian friendship rather than the certainties of arms-length Russian
hostility.
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