Republican circles, the common rationale for nominating George W. Bush for president is, "We have to win" -- an understandable sentiment. After eight years of Clinton-Gore, there is a palpable yearning among GOP activists for a Republican in the White House.
In purely electoral terms, the case for Bush's candidacy is formidable. He is the first governor of Texas this century to be elected to consecutive terms. In 1998, on his way to a landslide reelection, he won an estimated 49 percent of the Hispanic vote, 27 percent of the black vote, and 66 percent of the women's vote. His charisma is Reaganesque, and his stump skills are already legendary.
Bush's lead over Al Gore in recent national polls ranges from about 17 to 25 points. He beats Gore even among women and independents, and he is out front in every state except Hawaii, New York, and the vice president's own Tennessee. This margin will no doubt tighten, but a much larger percentage of Bush supporters than Gore supporters say they are certain to vote for their man. Also, Bush will have the funds to win. He is expected to shatter the record for fundraising when he files his latest finance report on June 30, banking over $18 million -- more than twice the amount likely to be raised by his nearest GOP challenger.
Yet for all this overwhelming sense of inevitability, the strongest case for Bush is based on his conservatism, not his viability. He is, in fact, the most electable conservative presidential candidate in a generation. More conservative than his father, George W. has a proven record of conservative accomplishment that the media have largely ignored. A Bush victory in November 2000 would be a conservative triumph, not a moderate one.
Many conservatives are understandably wary of another Bush in the White House. But while Gov. Bush is apparently a loyal son, he has blazed his own trail and has his own ideas. When asked what he thinks of his father's 1990 tax hike, he replies, "It was a big mistake by a good guy."
His conservative preferences are reflected in the advisors he has chosen. Nowhere to be seen are the likes of Richard Darman, President Bush's budget director and a conservative bogeyman. Instead, George W. has tapped Larry Lindsey, a Reaganite and supply-sider, as his top economic advisor. Another advisor is Indianapolis mayor Steve Goldsmith, a celebrated tax-cutter and supporter of faith-based alternatives to welfare. Bush has also consulted Marvin Olasky, whose book The Tragedy of American Compassion provided the intellectual framework for conservative welfare reform.
Bush's beliefs are clearly rooted in his Christian faith. After giving up drinking at age 40, Bush had a conversation with Billy Graham that caused him, in his words, to "search my heart and recommit my life to Jesus Christ." It led him to begin reading the Bible and praying daily. He recently told the members of a Baptist church in Houston, "I firmly believe in the power of intercessory prayer, and I know I could not do my job without it." Among his strongest supporters are conservative evangelical leaders. Jerry Falwell is a good friend, though he has yet to issue a public endorsement.
Bush's faith is responsible for his emphasis on "compassionate conservatism." He obviously believes that we should care for the less fortunate and "leave no one behind." When pressed, though, he never advocates government as the source of compassion. He emphasizes cutting taxes, reforming welfare, strengthening the family, and unleashing faith-based and charitable "armies of compassion."
The conservative agenda, let's admit, could use a friendlier face. Republican setbacks on Capitol Hill have made clear that conservatives cannot govern the country from Congress. Bush fashions himself a conciliator and has demonstrated an ability to govern effectively with a Republican senate and a Democratic house in Texas. With a GOP Congress, he would be even better positioned to lead.
As president, Bush would prod Congress to move on his priorities: cutting taxes, modernizing entitlements, and restoring values. As governor, he signed the largest tax cut in state history in 1997, a $1 billion property-tax rollback. In 1999, he pushed through the state legislature an even larger tax cut of nearly $2 billion, a parental-notification bill on abortion, and a bill ending "social promotion" in the schools. He also championed a $25 million initiative that included funds for an abstinence campaign -- a program he believes will not only dramatically reduce teen pregnancy and abortions, but usher in "a new era of responsibility."
As to abortion, Bush's views have been consistently pro-life. He favors, again, parental-consent laws, a ban on partial-birth abortion, and ultimately a constitutional amendment. He supports the pro-life plank in the Republican platform as a laudable statement of the party's principles. He recently recorded a videotaped statement to this effect that satisfied officials of the National Right to Life Committee. Small wonder he has attracted the support of some of the most respected pro-life leaders in the party, including Rep. Chris Smith of New Jersey.
Bush recently took hits from the right for refusing to promise that he would require his Supreme Court nominees to commit to overturning Roe v. Wade. But no Republican presidential nominee has ever made such a pledge. Instead, Bush says he will appoint judges who reflect his conservative views -- solid constructionists who will "strictly interpret the Constitution, as opposed to using the bench to legislate." According to judicial ethics, judges who promised in advance to vote against Roe would be required to recuse themselves from any decision, defeating the whole purpose of the pledge. Indeed, Clarence Thomas -- who said in testimony under oath before the Senate Judiciary Committee that he did not know how he would rule on Roe -- never met this requirement and could not have been confirmed if he had.
On gun control, Bush favors instant criminal background checks but opposes mandatory trigger locks or other attempts to eviscerate the Second Amendment. In the aftermath of the Littleton tragedy, he instinctively gave sound answers, asserting that the most effective gun control is locking up violent criminals who commit crimes with guns. He has vowed to Americans for Tax Reform that he would not raise taxes. He supports a missile-defense system and has boasted that he doesn't believe in "the new world anything" (a reference to the "new world order" associated with his father).
And most refreshingly, Bush has shown a willingness to engage his liberal foes. In 1998, he filed a brief to deny a group of trial lawyers a multibillion-dollar payoff as part of the state's tobacco settlement. He made tort reform a central issue in his first campaign for governor in 1994, and it appears likely he will do so in his presidential campaign. He has been highly critical of Bill Clinton's tendency to "subcontract out public policy to the trial lawyers." This aggressiveness, as much as his stands on the issues, is vital to the future of conservatism.
Even where Bush occasionally disappoints some conservatives, such as on racial preferences, the distance is bridgeable. He maintains that his vision for racial harmony is based on privately led "affirmative access," not government-mandated "affirmative action." At the University of Texas, Bush-appointed trustees phased out quotas but saw the number of minority applicants rise with energetic recruiting efforts.
Critics argue that Bush is running a campaign of platitudes, not specifics. In fact, he has indicated precisely where he stands on taxes, abortion, gun control, and Kosovo. A presidential campaign is like an Apollo rocket launch: It arcs across the sky in booster-like stages. Bush has passed through the exploratory and announcement stages, and will flesh out his positions with ten-point plans and the like in a series of major speeches this fall. No presidential candidate releases his budget plan in his announcement speech; he must first establish broad themes and introduce himself to the electorate.
Bush understands the Republican nomination must be earned and not inherited. And he is prepared to earn it by making clear that, in his words, "I won't use my office as a mirror to reflect public opinion. And I'll be guided by conservative principles." National Review's William Rusher once observed that Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan believed the same things-only Goldwater said them with a frown, while Reagan said them with a smile. Bush believes what conservatives believe, and he will give conservatism a smile again. That will make all the difference.
