I don’t find Michael Gerson’s arguments concerning the Dream Act very persuasive:
Critics counter that the law would be a reward for illegal behavior and an incentive for future lawbreaking. But these immigrants, categorized as illegal, have done nothing illegal. They are condemned to a shadow existence entirely by the actions of their parents. And the Dream Act is not an open invitation for future illegal immigrants to bring their minors to America. Only applicants who have lived in America continuously for five years before enactment of the law would qualify.
But what of the billions of children condemned to relative poverty because their parents chose not to become unauthorized immigrants? According to Michael Clemens and Lant Pritchett, migration is a highly effective means of achieving poverty reduction. An extraordinary 26 percent of people born in Haiti who live beyond the two-dollar-a-day standard live in the United States.
As I understand it, the DREAM Act implicitly tells us that I should value the children of unauthorized immigrants more than the children of other people living in impoverished countries. If we assume that all human beings merit equal concern, this is obviously nonsensical. Indeed, all controls on migration are suspect under that assumption.
Even so, there is a broad consensus that the United States has a right to control its borders, and that the American polity can decide who will be allowed to settle in the United States. Or to put this another way, we’ve collectively decided that the right to live and work in the U.S. will be treated as a scarce good, just as we treat the right to access the spectrum as a scarce good. (Briefly, I think the case for treating the spectrum as a scarce good is much weaker than the case for treating the right to live and work in the U.S. that way, but that’s a separate issue.)
This means that we are departing the terrain of moralistic theorizing and entering the terrain of deciding what is best for U.S. citizens and, perhaps, lawful permanent residents. Gerson writes:
Opponents cite the cost of the Dream Act. The Congressional Budget Office estimates it would reduce the deficit by $1.4 billion over the next 10 years due to increased tax revenue – then increase the deficit once a variety of federal benefits kick in. One group opposed to the law claims it will require $6.2 billion in education subsidies. A UCLA study counters that Dream Act beneficiaries would generate $1.4 trillion to $3.6 trillion in income during their working lives.
After perusing the study in question, I was impressed by the heroic assumptions made regarding the labor market prospects of potential Dream Act beneficiaries, particularly for those with no more than a high school diploma or a GED certificate. (Note: Beneficiaries with a high school diploma would have a ten-year-period during which they must complete two years of military service or two years of higher education. I’d be interested to know the costs associated with administering this program, and also if there will be an appeals process. How will we react to the spectacle of women and men in their late 20s being expelled from the country after spending most of their lives here? My guess is that this will lead to no small amount of moral outrage. Indeed, some will say that the DREAM Act implicitly promised these young people that they’d have a shot at living in the U.S. permanently, and the vagaries of life prevented them from fulfilling the obligations created under the legislation.)
One assumes that the beneficiaries will eventually age, and draw on Social Security and Medicare, leaving aside other social services. Once we factor in real-world estimates of these and other costs, including the costs associated with the children of Dream Act beneficiaries, I assume that we’ll be left with a positive net number.
Yet would we yield a higher net number if rather than legalize 825,000 or 2.1 million Dream Act beneficiaries, we instead welcomed 825,000 or 2.1 million workers with some combination of high levels of English-language proficiency, start-up capital, college and post-graduate degrees, and other markers of bright labor market prospects?
Perhaps Michael Gerson will consider me morally reprehensible for asking this question. But if that’s true, surely it is also true that we are wrong to value American or Mexican lives over Togolese or Tajik or Pashtun lives. Gerson writes:
The outcome of this dispute depends on a more basic economic determination: Would this category of hardworking immigrants ultimately be an advantage to America or a drain? It is a principle of democratic capitalism and non-Malthusian economics that ambitious human beings are not just mouths but hands and brains. They are a resource – the main source of future wealth.
Again, it’s not obvious that Dream Act beneficiaries are the only ambitious human beings with hands and brains. By my rough calculation, there are roughly 6 billion of them, give or take a few billion scofflaws. There are hundreds of thousands of such ambitious human beings who apply for the diversity visa lottery in countries across the world. I imagine that many of their children are great people too.
Once we enter the realm of justifying the Dream Act on grounds of the supposed economic impact, it seems fairly clear that there are alternatives that will prove more advantageous to the U.S.
I can imagine a decent argument for the Dream Act, e.g., it is a wedge strategy designed to begin the process of earned legalization for the large population of unauthorized immigrants currently living in the United States, and we don’t have the will or the resources for a serious campaign of attrition or repatriation. That’s fair. But it’s not the kind of moral argument that Gerson is making.
P.S. A colleague raised a good question, and it has been echoed by others:
But the DREAM Act beneficiaries are children. Surely they shouldn’t be punished for the actions of their parents.
I agree. Again, there are young girls in East Africa who will be subject to ritual mutilation because their parents were not able to settle in the United States, and there are young girls in South Asia who will become the victims of disfiguring acid attacks for the same reason. Many of these children might have flourished in the United States. But we have collectively decided that the U.S. can’t welcome all of the people who would choose to live in this country.
But it’s wrong to send children who’ve known no other home back to “native countries,” particularly when they can’t speak the language of that country.
I absolutely think that it is reasonable and humane to offer assistance of some kind to the governments in question to aid these children and young adults to facilitate repatriation. That said, I do think it’s worth noting that there are palpable advantages to having lived in the U.S. for a long period of time that can translate in other environments. Our schools are far from perfect, but even the lowest-performing U.S. public schools perform well relative to K-12 schools in many middle-income countries, let alone truly poor countries.
The U.S. is creating a class of stateless children by virtue of a policy of benign neglect that implicitly welcomed unauthorized immigrants.
This is a reasonable point. But one could easily characterize this as a strong case for clarity: unauthorized immigration will be taken seriously, and unauthorized immigrants need to understand that they are making a decision that will impact the lives of their children. As someone who has known many unauthorized immigrants, and more than a few people who’ve been deported or who’ve left the country rather than face the risk and the indignity of deportation, I don’t take this lightly. I just don’t think public policy should be organized around my sentiments. Rather, it should be based on a rigorous, unsentimental assessment of the options we have at hand. And it is my strong view that residents of HIPC deserve more priority than the children of unauthorized immigrants.
So do people from HIPC deserve the right to live and work in the U.S. more than native-born Americans like yourself?
Quite possibly. This, however, would require a radical revision of our constitutional order. Consider the sharp reaction to proposals to strip naturalized U.S. citizens of their citizenship if they were found to be affiliated with terrorist organizations that have wage war on the United States. Choosing to prioritize residents of HIPCs over unauthorized immigrants and their children would not require a radical revision of our constitutional order.
Reihan, I generally agree with you that there's no reason to privilege Mexican immigrants over others simply because of geography. But supposing the DREAM act fails, I don't see the US allowing in a comparable number of more deserving immigrants from other countries. There's no opportunity-cost here-we could pass the DREAM act and allow in other immigrants.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseNor do I understand why this is an affirmative argument against passing the DREAM act. Just because there are more effective poverty reduction immigration alternatives, should we reject the DREAM act because it's not optimal? I don't think you'd apply that standard to the Bowles-Simpson or Ryan-Rivlin budget plans.
Hi Jamie:
Here is my concern -- people are using a heartstring-pulling argument to justify a policy that is more than what it appears to be. As Gerson suggests, the DREAM Act is about the idea of "earned legalization." And I think of earned legalization is a strategy for entrenching the immigration status quo, i.e., maintaining an implicit immigration policy built around the interests of labor- and water-intensive agriculture in semi-arid regions of the country and a number of other large and influential pressure groups, including organizations that see themselves of champions of the interests of Americans with their roots in Mexico, Central America, and other countries that have both sent a large number of unauthorized migrants to the U.S. and that have amassed a fair amount of political influence. (Ireland might fall in this category as well.) The former group doesn't strike me as a strong claimant. The latter group has a somewhat stronger claim, yet that claim ought to be balanced against the interests of other groups. There isn't a large Nepalese lobby, for example.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseIf I read you right, abandoning the DREAM Act will allow the better alternative immigration law, which you favor, to replace it. Amirite? Because there's a better proposal that allows for increased legal immigration, and doesn't favor entrenched immigration patterns, which are bad for some reason. And this proposal is one that conservatives will certainly favor?
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseThe proposed Dream Act needs to be considered realistically. This is massive Amnesty for every illegal alien who can claim,
even fraudulently, that they entered before the age of 16 and have lived in the U.S. for at least 5 years. The proponents
assert that the illegals must serve in the military or attend college. This is not true for several reasons.
The key reason is that any "qualifying" illegal gets 10 years of legal status simply by applying. Of course, in theory
applications can be denied. However, past experience shows that blatantly fraudulent applications will be received in massive
numbers and readily accepted. Note that the Dream Act specifically forbids the use of any information received in an
application for any immigration enforcement purpose. Apparently, the Dream Act imposes no penalties for fraud no matter how
blatant. Of course, it is very unlikely that the Obama administration is going to apply a fine tooth comb to any applicant,
particularly when they have millions of forms to consider.
The age 16 cutoff is quite significant in this context. Aside from the fact that an illegal who entered the U.S. at age 15
really did grow up in Mexico (or anywhere else), the 16 year threshold makes fraud detection rather difficult. If the cutoff
was 10 or 12 the Federal government could reasonably insist that each applicant produce school records to show what age they
snuck over the border. By contrast a fraudulent applicant can simply claim that they entered at age 15 and went to work shortly
thereafter. Of course, they may have really been 25, but who is to say otherwise?
Once they apply every illegal gets 10 years of legal residence in the U.S. In theory to stay on after 10 years, they have to
join the Army or go to college. However, the Dream Act has a "hardship" exemption that anyone can claim. Since even a denied
"hardship" claim can be litigated forever, this amounts to "no illegal left behind". The government doesn't have the resources
to reject even obviously bogus "hardship" claims given the de fact rule of immigration law ("it ain't over until the illegal
wins").
However, the truth is worse. Even illegals who never lift a pencil or a rifle will engage in activities tying them to America
over a ten year period. Some will marry. Others will have children in and out of wedlock (very likely the latter). The notion
that Congress, the courts, and Federal bureaucracy are going to remove this illegals after a 10 year hiatus is dubious at best.
The bottom line is that this a ten year down payment on permanent Amnesty for every illegal who applies with essentially any
convenient fictions on his or her form.
The next question is what is likely to be the impact of these illegals on our nation. This topic has been extensively
researched and the results are highly negative. A number of references make this point all to clearly.
1. The 1997 National Academy of Sciences study found that each low-skilled immigrant costs $89,000 over the course of his/her
lifetime. See External Link
"The NRC estimates indicated that the average immigrant without a high school education imposes a net fiscal burden on public
coffers of $89,000 during the course of his or her lifetime. The average immigrant with only a high school education creates a
lifetime fiscal burden of $31,000."
2. There is little evidence that the children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren of illegals will do much better. Samuel
Huntington looked at this subject in his book, "Who Are We". See Table 9.1 on page 234 or External Link
. The bottom line
is that educational attainment rises from the first to the second generation and then plateaus at levels far below the national
average. For example, even by the fourth generation only 9.6% of Mexican-Americans have a post-high school degree.
3. The Heritage foundation found that low-skill immigrant households impose huge tax costs on Americans. See "The Fiscal Cost
of Low-Skill Immigrants to the U.S. Taxpayer" (External Link
). The summary is
"In FY 2004, low-skill immigrant households received $30,160 per household in immediate benefits and services (direct benefits,
means-tested benefits, education, and population-based services). In general, low-skill immigrant households received about
$10,000 more in government benefits than did the average U.S. household, largely
because of the higher level of means-tested welfare benefits received by low-skill immigrant households. In contrast, low-skill
immigrant households pay less in taxes than do other households. On average, low-skill immigrant households paid only $10,573
in taxes in FY 2004. Thus, low-skill immigrant households received nearly three dollars in immediate benefits and services for
each dollar in taxes paid. A household’s net fiscal deficit equals the cost of benefits and services received minus taxes paid.
When the costs
of direct and means-tested benefits, education, and population-based services are counted, the average low-skill household had
a fiscal deficit of $19,588 (expenditures of $30,160 minus $10,573 in taxes)."
4. Heather MacDonald has written extensively on the bleak realities of mass unskilled immigration. I recommend "Seeing Today’s
Immigrants Straight" (External Link
). Key quote
"If someone proposed a program to boost the number of Americans who lack a high school diploma, have children out of wedlock,
sell drugs, steal, or use welfare, he’d be deemed mad. Yet liberalized immigration rules would do just that. The illegitimacy
rate among Hispanics is high and rising faster than that of other ethnic groups; their dropout rate is the highest in the
country; Hispanic children are joining gangs at younger and younger ages. Academic achievement is abysmal."
5. Edward P. Lazear's (CEA / Harvard Economics) paper “Mexican Assimilation in the United States” has a wealth of statistics
showing the raw deal from south of the border. Summary quote.
“By almost any measure, immigrants from Mexico have performed worse and become
assimilated more slowly than immigrants from other countries. Still, Mexico is a huge country, with many high ability people
who could fare very well in the United States. Why have Mexicans done so badly? The answer is primarily immigration policy.”
See also "Lazear on Immigration" (External Link
). Money quote
"Immigrants from Mexico do far worse when they migrate to the United States than do immigrants from other countries. Those
difficulties are more a reflection of U.S. immigration policy than they are of underlying cultural differences. The following
facts from the 2000 U.S. Census reveal that Mexican immigrants do not move into mainstream American society as rapidly as do
other immigrants."
You can read the rest over at the Borjas blog.
Reply to this commentLinkReport AbuseI'm not sure it's a fair comparison to say you're valuing them higher because they're here vs. another country. We're talking about sending people back to a country they have no ties to whatsoever. At least the children in impoverished countries have been there their entire lives and know their way to the well pump and whatnot.
Reply to this commentLinkReport Abuse