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The Agenda

NRO’s domestic-policy blog, by Reihan Salam.

Guide to the 2014 Senate Midterms



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There’s a lot of speculation about the chances of Republicans taking the Senate in the November 4 midterm elections. In The New Yorker, John Cassidy recently lamented:

Just in case you haven’t you haven’t had enough bad news, here’s a bit more from the domestic-politics desk. With less than a hundred days until the midterm elections, the Republicans now have a very realistic chance of retaking the Senate, which would leave them in over-all control of Capitol Hill for the next two years.

Forecasts indicate that that Cassidy may have good reason to worry – The Upshot puts the chance of a Republican takeover at 64 percent:

The Washington Post echoes this prediction, reporting a 63 percent chance that the Republicans will be in the majority after the November elections.

The GOP needs six seats to win the Senate, and there are seven currently Democratic seats up for grabs in states that Romney won in 2012. Historically, midterms go poorly for the incumbent party, and President Obama’s rock bottom approval ratings certainly aren’t helping the Democrats. Even so, there are quite a few races that are shaping up to be close.

Over the next several days, The Agenda will provide information and analysis on the candidates and key issues as well as recent polling data for these close races. 

 



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