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Predicting Tonight
Hope and change.


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Who will it be? Or, perhaps, how bad will it be? Will it be a night of surprises? As the fateful hour approaches, National Review Online has gathered fearless Election Day predictions.

Kenneth Blackwell 
 The latest FOX News/Rasmussen Reports battleground poll presents a plausible scenario for a narrow John McCain victory. While most pundits have written McCain’s political obituary, he is extremely competitive in Florida (McCain leads 50 percent to 49 percent), North Carolina (McCain leads 50 percent to 49 percent), Missouri (tied at 49 percent) and Ohio (tied at 49 percent). Factor in Monday’s Mason-Dixon Virginia numbers (Obama leads 47 percent to 44 percent) and this election is far from over.  
 

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The other wild card is the upset brewing in Pennsylvania. The McCain campaign actually thinks it will win that state, giving them a lifesaving electoral firewall.  

Looking at the battleground states a day before the election, I see McCain winning Florida, North, Carolina, Missouri, Ohio, and Pennsylvania; and losing Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. If that happens, McCain will squeak out 273 electoral votes and win. 

 — Ken Blackwell, a former Ohio secretary of state, is a senior fellow at the American Civil Rights Union.  He has also served as an undersecretary at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. 
 

Alex Castellanos 
The Swami opens the envelope and predicts a big democratic year but Barack Obama underperforms.   Why? Obama is seen as the most inexperienced Democratic candidate at the most uncertain moment in world history. Also, 60 percent of Americans say Obama is left of center but only 20 percent say they are. Congress has the mommy bear job in government, “spreading the wealth around.” The presidency is a daddy-bear job, however, and Obama is not seen as strong enough. The youth vote is huge, black Americans show up in large numbers — but so does everybody else. So Obama’s turnout operation is less of factor than Democrats had hoped. 
 
Pro-McCain voters have less intensity than pro-Obama voters but anti-Obama voters are fired up and ready to go. There just aren’t enough of them in a big Democratic year. The Silent Majority becomes the Silent Minority. 
 
Obama carries Virginia but not North Carolina. He carries Pennsylvania but not Ohio or Michigan or Indiana. Obama carries Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, and Florida. McCain gets one vote out of Maine. Obama gets 318 electoral votes. Obama 50.5 to McCain 48.5.   
 
The Democrats reach 58 in the Senate because Republicans win Coleman, lose Georgia in a stunning upset, but win Louisiana in a shocker. House Democrats go +31. 
 
— Alex Castellanos is a Republican media consultant residing in Alexandria, Virginia.
 

Elizabeth Crum
Like everyone who is willing to be honest about it, I have no earthly idea what is going to happen today in the presidential election so I’m going with the most interesting, historically significant (and actually plausible) outcome I can imagine:   

Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, and Pennysylvania go to The One; New Hampshire, Indiana, Ohio, Missouri, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida go to McCain; and the electoral college is tied at 269. Ten thousand attorneys descend upon these eleven toss up states like one of the great plagues of Egypt. Obama wins because he has more money and more lawyers to defend the fraudulent votes cast by dead people and out-of-staters. 

In Nevada, Democrat Dina Titus will beat John Porter in our Distict 3 congressional race. Many feel that Porter deserves his loss: He has not been a reliable conservative in D.C. and ran a terrible campaign.   

The most interesting and controversial Nevada initiative – to raise our room tax by as much as three percent to fund public education – will pass, even though economic analysts have warned this will harm our already struggling tourism industry. And our educational system will no doubt continue to be ranked among the worst in the nation due to our Board of Education’s general hostility to fiscal responsibility, reform, and charter schools. 

Elizabeth Crum is a freelance blogger in Nevada. 


Kathryn Jean Lopez
Predictions? What are they good for?

Reading material on E-(or D!) Day, of course!

So here are mine: John Sununu wins. I don’t know if that’s true but it is should be. We’ll need someone smart in Washington who is on our side.

Coleman wins. Al Franken cannot be a senator. This “anyone can be president (etc.)” Was not meant to be made a joke of. I mean, we’re free to make a joke of it all — the Constitution and all, which Joe Biden might be on board for — but … let’s not, Minnesota.

Murtha loses. It’s the right thing. And if anyone can do it, it is the bitter clingers.

I do hold out some hope on the presidential. There is no reason to not keep hope alive. Just vote. Ignore the talking heads prematurely celebrating and ignore the exit polls.

See you tonight.

 – Kathryn Jean Lopez is the editor of
National Review Online.

 
Rob Long
To be succinct, I would say this about the election: Build an ark.

– Rob Long’s column, The Long View, appears in National Review.


John J. Miller
 
Barack Obama will win the presidential election. He will carry all of the 2004 blue states, including Pennsylvania, and also flip Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, and Virginia. This would give Obama 286 electoral votes, to 252 for John McCain. 



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