With every recent Supreme Court nomination, senators and commentators have debated whether it is appropriate for senators to filibuster nominees. With a dreary predictability, Democratic senators argue in favor of the appropriateness of filibusters only when Republicans nominate justices and Republican senators argue in their favor only when Democratic presidents nominate justices. In Washington, constitutional provisions and desirable procedures often mysteriously change their meaning with every election, as each party molds rules to its partisan interest.
But such partisan posturing does not answer the more important question of whether filibustering a nominee — for instance, Sonia Sotomayor — will advance the interests of republican government. One needs, rather, to look at the confirmation process under a veil of ignorance as to the partisan identity of the president and the Senate. Viewing the issue from this objective perspective, we believe that the routine use of the filibuster rule will obtain better justices, where better is defined as justices who have better qualifications and whose jurisprudential positions are more broadly supported than they would be in a world without the filibuster rule. In fact, the filibuster rule will temper the counter-majoritarian difficulty — a central problem created for constitutionalism when an unelected judiciary invalidates the decisions of the popularly elected legislature.
The benefits of the filibuster stem from three political truths that define the confirmation process. First, senators and presidents evaluate Supreme Court candidates based largely on their ideological assessment of candidates’ likely votes. For instance, left-wing Democrats were the most likely to vote against the Supreme Court nominees of George W. Bush, a conservative Republican. Second, the president is likely to occupy a more extreme ideological position concerning the issue of judicial review than the median senator (i.e., the senator who is in the middle of the Senate ideologically). A president must win nomination from a primary electorate that is composed largely of members of his own party, and primary voters tend to be more ideologically extreme than voters in general. Consequently, rather than reflecting the views of the median voter of the electorate, presidents are more likely to reflect the views of the median voter of their party, or even to be more extreme. Political scientists confirm that the seven most recently elected presidents have reflected the median view of their party more than the median view of the electorate.
Third, by contrast, senators span a wider ideological space, because of variations in the composition of state voters. New England Republicans are more liberal than most Republicans, and thus Republican senators elected from those states will be more centrist. Similarly, southern Democrats are more conservative than most Democrats, and thus more moderate Democrats are elected. Consequently, a range of senators from the president’s party will have more moderate views than the president.
One can think of senators arrayed along a continuum, with the most left-wing at 1 and the most right-wing at 100. A Democratic president is likely to be at the left of center with a position of 25 and a Republican president at the right of center with a position of 75. Given these political realities, it is relatively easy to see how the filibuster rule will lead to the appointment of more moderate justices. Without the filibuster rule, the president would simply have to obtain the vote of the median senator to get a simple majority. For example, for a Democratic president, the nominee might represent a compromise between a president at 25 with a senator at 50. By contrast, under the filibuster the median senator at 50 is no longer decisive. Instead the pivotal senator is the one who would break the filibuster. For a Democratic president, that would require the president, at 25, to secure the vote of a senator at 60, rather than at 50. As a result, the president, whether Democrat or Republican, would have to nominate a more moderate candidate to obtain confirmation. The paradox is that, in the context of judicial nominations, a supermajority rule like the filibuster rule will likely help promote the preferences of the majority of the Senate.
By promoting the confirmation of moderate justices, the filibuster rule tempers the counter-majoritarian difficulty we mentioned above. The problem has become particularly acute in modern times, when justices rarely decide cases based on the original meaning of the Constitution and tend to inject their own values into constitutional interpretation. The views of the median senator are generally more representative of the views of the median voter in the electorate than of those of the president. Consequently, a supermajority rule helps to promote the appointment of justices who hold views on the Constitution that accord with the median voter and therefore with those of a majority of the public.