Both Doku Umarov and al-Qaeda’s central leadership view the Caucasus as a significant front in a conflict that goes far beyond Russia. IEC’s activities provide propaganda material that the broader al-Qaeda network can leverage in its recruiting and fundraising network. The North Caucasus conflict also facilitates the training and flow of personnel. Chechen militants have been seen traveling alongside Arab and Uzbek fighters in Pakistan’s North Waziristan region as recently as April 21, and several Chechens were reportedly killed in a March operation in Pakistan’s Bajaur agency. In past years, Arab fighters have played a role in the Caucasus insurgency, specifically through the Shamil Basayev–led Islamic International Peacekeeping Brigade. The IEC’s active assistance to the AQAM network, along with their shared global ideology, threatens American interests and should qualify the group as a candidate for an FTO listing.
Al-Qaeda returned the rhetorical favor in April 2008 when Ayman al-Zawahiri, who was detained briefly in the Caucasus in the 1990s, identified the Caucasus as one of the three primary fronts of al-Qaeda’s international campaign against the West. This followed a December 2007 message from the al-Qaeda-linked al-Fajr Media Center that called Doku Umarov an “Emir of the Believers.” Signifying Umarov’s importance within the al-Qaeda network, the message also used that title for the Taliban’s Mullah Omar and al-Qaeda in Iraq’s late Omar al-Baghdadi, two individuals revered within the AQAM network.
Another failure to strictly apply the FTO criteria came to light in January, when the State Department finally placed al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) on the list — almost a full month after the Christmas Day attack by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab for which the group claimed responsibility, and almost a year after its formation. The delayed decision to designate AQAP as an FTO suggests that the administration did not consider AQAP’s rhetoric threatening to American interests until the Christmas Day attack. Yet in November 2009 the leader of AQAP, Nassir al-Wahayshi, called on his followers to attack airports and trains in the West using homemade bombs. A Saudi commander of the group told AQAP militants that same month, “Your first enemy is the Crusaders, among them America and NATO.”
In fact, though, AQAP’s rhetoric should have been irrelevant to its designation as an FTO, since AQAP is an official al-Qaeda franchise. Thus every condition and measure that applied to FTO-listed al-Qaeda should have automatically applied to AQAP. As for the IEC, it does not have official franchise status, but its leaders and the leaders of al-Qaeda have identified it as part of the global militant Islamist movement led by al-Qaeda, which qualifies it for the FTO list.
The IEC and AQAP cases reveal a gap in understanding AQAM, as the does the continuing absence of the AQAM-linked Taliban from the FTO list. Franchises and affiliates often use local grievances to garner popular support and attract recruits, making them seem remote from U.S. concerns, but they adhere to a global ideology and actively assist one another in an overall campaign against American interests. Regardless of whether they directly target Americans in their operations, AQAM-affiliated groups are members of a broader network that threatens U.S. interests and security, and they should be recognized and treated as such by the State Department.
– Charlie Szrom is senior analyst and program manager for AEI’s Critical Threats Project. Chris Harnisch is an analyst and Gulf of Aden team lead for the Critical Threats Project.