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Jobs Tepid, Dems Out, Stocks Up?
That’s the increasingly clear logic.


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Larry Kudlow

Friday’s unemployment report for September, the last before the election, brought more bad news for the Obama Democrats.

Noteworthy is the fact that stocks rallied a bit on the lackluster and tepid jobs numbers, pushing through the 11,000 mark. But more and more, it seems bad economic news illustrating the failure of Obamanomics becomes good news for stocks on the expectation of a GOP tsunami in November.

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The unemployment rate itself held at 9.6 percent. It’s been over 9.5 percent for 14 straight months. Meanwhile, the marginally unemployed — or the so-called impairment rate (U-6) — jumped to 17.1 percent from 16.7 percent.

These headlines are political poison for Democrats. Voters are going to keep asking, What exactly did we get for a $1 trillion stimulus-spending package that puts us deeper in hock?

Overall, nonfarm payrolls fell 95,000 for September, largely from a drop in census workers and state and local government employees. Private payrolls increased 64,000, only a third of what’s necessary to sustainably reduce unemployment.

Average hourly wages were flat, as was the workweek.

Looking back, the jobs story was much stronger in the first four months of the year through April. But job creation has slowed markedly since then, along with the overall economy.

The household survey, which picks up small businesses, is the better story. This report has grown by 1.6 million jobs year-to-date (adjusted for census workers), or 178,000 per month. And in the payroll survey, corporate jobs have increased 863,000 in the private sector, coming to 96,000 per month. Yet both surveys most grow over 200,000 per month in order to truly dent stubbornly high unemployment.

There is no double-dip recession here. The recovery is probably advancing at about a 2 to 3 percent rate. But that’s a sluggish pace at best. We should be growing at least twice as fast.

Precisely because of the obvious failure of the Obama stimulus-spending program to adequately create jobs, the Federal Reserve is moving toward re-priming the pump. It’s the addition of yet another bad policy of dollar destruction to the first mistake of massive spending.



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