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Ten Mysteries of 2010
Why was the GOP aced out in Massachusetts and Connecticut? How did Blago’s right-hand man win in Illinois? And eight other unanswered questions.

Impromptus by Jim Geraghty


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With only a handful of House races still being sorted out, the 2010 midterm elections are now almost entirely settled. And yet, despite all the vote totals, exit polls, and other data we have received, we’re left with some results that are almost maddening.

1. The New England doldrums: New Hampshire is back to being a GOP-leaning state, with Kelly Ayotte taking the Senate race and Republicans winning back both House seats, which they had lost in 2006. And Maine’s governor-elect, Paul LePage, is one of the cycle’s least-expected winners. But beyond that, few Republicans even came close in the New England states, despite a big surge in enthusiasm and various indicators of good news. In late polls, both House seats in Maine appeared competitive, but Republicans lost both by double digits. Connecticut’s 4th and 5th Congressional Districts had a similar story: Surveys showed GOP challengers coming on strong at the end, only to finish six and eight percentage points behind, respectively.

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And then there’s Massachusetts. Perhaps defeating Barney Frank was a dream, but Jeff Perry finished an agonizing 4.5 percentage points short in an open-seat House race in the most GOP-friendly district in the state. Needless to say, the rest of Massachusetts was even worse for the party. In almost every state, conservatives had something to cheer about on November 3, but in Massachusetts they could only stare in disbelief as voters reelected almost every incumbent in a year that was heavily anti-incumbent nationwide.

Ten months after Scott Brown, in a region with high unemployment, Republicans fell short in race after race. If the GOP can’t win in New England in a year like this, will they ever?

2. New York’s top-of-the-ticket boomerang: All year long, I lamented that a slew of promising candidates for the House were getting no help from the top of the ticket in the Empire State, where the governor’s race and both Senate races (the second was a special election in which the incumbent, Kirsten Gillibrand, had been appointed to fill Hillary Clinton’s seat) were set to be Democratic landslides. At least four and perhaps six Republican House challengers proved they didn’t need top-of-the-ticket help. In retrospect, Democrats are probably wondering whether competitive races might have helped drive turnout on their side.

In 2012, Obama will probably increase turnout among blacks and young voters. Can Republicans keep the seats they just won narrowly, and could they grab a few that they narrowly missed this time, like Maurice Hinchey’s in the 22nd district and Bill Owens’s in the 23rd?

3. The wave that skipped the House races in North Carolina: How did Republicans win only one of four competitive House races — Renee Ellmers still has to survive a recount effort from the trailing Democratic incumbent, Bob Etheridge — while Richard Burr won the Senate race by twelve points and Republicans won sweeping gains in both the state house and the state senate? What put voters in a distinctly pro-Republican mood, but let them decide to keep Democratic incumbents Mike McIntyre, Larry Kissell, and Heath Shuler in office for another term? Above all, how did these Democrats hang on in districts that are R+5, R+2, and R+6?

4. The reverse Blago effect: Illinois is another state that offered some counterintuitive results. In the first major general election since the Rod Blagojevich scandal, one expected the voters of Illinois, beleaguered and fed up, to take out their frustration on Blago’s right-hand man, Pat Quinn, the lieutenant governor who was sworn in as governor after his chief was convicted. If Republicans would underperform in any races, it would be the U.S. House and Senate races, right?

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COMMENTS   13

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   11/10/10 09:07

"If Texas is the new Wyoming, I don’t know what Wyoming is now."

Easy: it's "Galt's Gulch"

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   11/10/10 10:49

Some answers to a few of your mysteries.....

#2) The GOP's ability to keep the gains in NYS will depend on how redistricting goes. And this will depend on if the GOP manages to win the recounts in 2 of the 3 too close to call state senate elections. If the GOP re-takes the NYS Senate than they will get a say in how the districts are drawn. If not look out for a very pro Democrat gerrymander and for the GOP to lose some seats in 2012.

#3) The answer to this mystery is gerrymandering! The Democrats drew the district lines 10 years ago to squeeze as many Democrat districts as they could out of NC. Look for the new GOP majorities in the state legislature here to draw at least 2 of these 3 Democrat congressman out in 2012.

#4) I think the answer here lies in Illinois upstate vs. downstate divide. As we know the Chicago area doesn't give a rip about corruption. They vote strongly straight Dem no matter what. Downstate and in the suburbs is where the GOP make their gains. The answer to the Kirk/Brady disparity lies in the suburbs. Kirk ran better than the downstate more socially conservative Brady did in the suburban swing districts outside Chicago. Kirk won because he was able to perform better in places like IL-10 (his old district) than Brady.

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   11/10/10 10:49

#5) I think very low off year election Hispanic turnout played a role in the GOP winning these Hispanic majority-minority districts. While these VRA districts might be heavily majority Hispanic in terms of residents, the reality is that in terms of actual voters they are more evenly split.

Also note 2 or the 3 Republicans who knocked off Democrat incumbents where Hispanic. Maybe more GOP outreach to the Latino community and more recruitment of Latino GOP candidates could help solidify the GOP control of Texas.

Finally the goal of the GOP in redistricting Texas really has to be on keeping their gains rather than expanding the field.

#8) Yes they can! At least in NY. On election day it looked like Democrat incumbents would win NY-25 & NY-1. In "overtime" it seems the GOP will win. But I really think a lot of this has more to do with incompetence of election officials in various states than some nefarious plot.

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   11/10/10 10:50

10) If you think 358,276 votes for Alvin Greene in SC is bad what about the 40,900 votes for the Rent is Too Darn High guy in NY or the 22,931 votes for Elliot Spitzer's madam? You got to figure at least some of the 358,276 votes Alvin Greene got are his friends and relatives. The rest are Yellow Dog Democrats. For the GOP it should be heartening to know that there are only 350,000 Yellow Dogs left in SC.

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   11/10/10 11:17

With two new great black congressmen set to join the Congressional Black Caucus, things should get interesting. Let those guys be vocal and show the blacks what a thoughtful black man sounds like. We should be able to get a few of those black votes away from Obama in 2012.
What our side has to do is get even more people out to vote in '12 than the left will. The margins of wins have to be bigger or we will be plagued with recounts again.

All that said, I predict Obama will not run in 2012. What more can he do to destroy us? His work is done. Now he'll rest on his laurels and make a fortune and pave the way for Hillary.

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   11/10/10 11:29

Sad to say, I think the problem in New England may have been in part Christine O'Connell. She got a lot of coverage and (fairly and unfairly) the media was able to make her the "face" of the GOP in that part of the country. It probably hurt Toomey as well. If we had had a Scott Brown in Delaware, things may have been different in MA and CT.

In Illinois, Quinn was never "Blago's right-hand man." He was seen as personally honest (by local standards) and something of a reformer, if not exactly a powerhouse. And Brady was too "out there" for the suburbs. I think Quinn only carried three counties, incidentally: Chicago, E. St. Louis and Cairo. Shows you what the machine can do.

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   11/10/10 15:03

#3) For McIntyre & Shuler, they are both very good, pro-life candidates who run in Republican-leaning, but not overwhelmingly GOP districts. As for Kissell, he's much less impressive & I think we can attribute his survival in part to a failure of the NRCC to focus enough resources on him.

#5) In terms of Texas' redistricting, it looks like either Cuellar's or Hinojosa's districts could be made competitive at the expense of the other. Another possibility would be to break up Lyle Doggett's Austin-based district. I could see a 29-7 congressional delegation coming out of Texas.

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   11/10/10 15:07

One quick typo correction: The TX House is now 99-51, not 91-51.

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   11/10/10 16:05

gabrielthursday hit the nail right on the nose, Shuler and McIntyre are sensible Democrats -- I'm glad they were reelected we need more like them.

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   11/10/10 16:15

bravo to izengabe! The 358,276 votes for Alvin Greene came from democrats that would rather elect uncle pervy than a republican. Just shows you how pathetic the dems are.

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   11/10/10 16:50

1) New England - "In a region with high unemployment" - Only one New England state (RI) has an above-average unemployment rate; NH and VT have the fourth and fifth lowest, respectively.

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   11/10/10 19:08

I live in Heath Shuler's district. He has the people here fooled. Most of those who live here are not overtly political and have a tendency to keep voting for the same people until they mess up in a big way. Heath hid under his desk while the Obamacare August recess meetings were happening around the country. Unfortunately, most people didn't notice and the newspapers here don't do a great job of reporting on politics. Jeff Miller was not really well known around here, unfortunately. It's like the people in SC voting for Alvin Green - what are they thinking? They aren't!

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   11/11/10 20:25

Jim's #8 is so spot-on and something no one talks about! Democrats take ALL the contested races. Of course it is because they cheat. And Republicans emit total silence. Why by now haven't Republicans figured out a way to combat this? Republicans even manage to lose races they WIN... Can you say Senator Franken? I grit my teeth when I receive Republican fund raising e-mails asking for help contesting close races. What will a donation go for? One more butter knife the Republicans can bring to the gun fight?

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