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An Opening Volley against the Deficit

By The Editors


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We are both pleasantly surprised and modestly encouraged by the program outlined by Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, the co-chairmen of the president’s deficit-reduction task force. There’s no VAT in sight, nor is there unrealistic happy-talk about balancing the budget through a federal Taylorism campaign or symbolic assaults on the unholy trinity of waste, fraud, and abuse. Instead, there is a serious series of concrete proposals for constraining entitlement costs, simplifying the tax code, and putting a leash on future federal expenditures. Whereas the Obama-Reid-Pelosi triumvirate had put the country on the road toward a national debt topping 200 percent of GDP — with $1 trillion a year in interest payments alone — the Bowles-Simpson program would stabilize the debt and begin reducing it. The program would keep the debt to 40 percent of GDP in 2037 and would bring annual deficits down to a more manageable 2.2 percent of GDP by 2015, and 1 percent in the following years.

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The plan has serious defects, the main one being that it establishes a historically high level of federal claims on the economy — with government revenue equal to 21 percent of GDP — as the new normal. But it is a good start, and it represents the sort of bipartisan starting point that even the most Tea Party–steeped Republican insurgents could begin with while remaining true to their core conservative values. That is not something we’d expected to write about a proposal produced by a go-along-get-along Republican retiree and Bill Clinton’s old chief of staff.

There is no getting around the fact that the plan contains a very large tax hike in the form of abolishing such familiar and cherished exemptions as the mortgage-interest deduction. Mr. Bowles estimates that the program is three-quarters spending cuts and one-quarter tax hikes. But in giving up the complex menu of special-interest tax write-offs, the Bowles-Simpson proposal greatly simplifies the tax code and enables an across-the-board reduction of tax rates — leaving three tax brackets at 8 percent, 14 percent, and 23 percent — with additional savings accruing to taxpayers in the form of lower IRS-compliance costs. We would have preferred two brackets, more generous tax treatment of investments (including investments in children), and deeper reductions in, if not the abolition of, the U.S. corporate-income tax as well — American companies pay the world’s second-highest rate — which could contribute significantly to growth in both employment and economic output. And while the mortgage-interest deduction should indeed be phased out, that is a policy that should be implemented with the utmost care: It will likely further reduce housing prices, a necessary development that should happen — but happen slowly, lest we set off a new round of crises in the securities markets.

The proposals for entitlement reform are likewise painful but necessary: raising the age of eligibility for Social Security and reducing future benefits payments under that program and Medicare. A steeper and more straightforward means-testing approach would be welcome, as would the addition of voluntary Social Security add-on accounts that would give retirees more control over their own futures.

There is an ideological oddity in the proposal’s treatment of discretionary-spending cuts in that it creates two arbitrary categories, defense and non-defense, and insists on separate cuts to each. Specific defense programs may be ripe for reductions or reform, but Pentagon spending is not at historically high levels — or even at historically high peacetime levels — unlike much of the rest of the federal government. It would be more sensible to establish a single target for reductions in all discretionary spending and then to proceed as our national priorities dictate, since there is no reason to presume that the Pentagon must be the target of specific directed cuts when Washington offers such a target-rich environment. If abolishing the Small Business Administration saves a brigade or two, that may very well be a trade worth making, and national defense remains one of the few core federal priorities in which policy cannot be subordinated to strictly budgetary concerns. If federal departments are to be singled out for cuts, we recommend the Departments of Energy, Labor, and Education. (The USDA’s byzantine agribusiness-welfare program already is in the crosshairs.)

Mr. Simpson says too much when he claims that he and his co-chairman “have harpooned every whale in the ocean and some of the minnows.” There are plenty of fat fish in the federal sea, and at least one Kraken: The Bowles-Simpson proposal studiously avoids mention of Obamacare, which, most budget realists appreciate, promises to add trillions of dollars to the national debt over the years, particularly if, as expected, its spending targets are exceeded while other fiscal mechanisms — specifically, cutting doctors’ Medicare payments by 21 percent or more (as promised by separate legislation) and imposing the “Cadillac” tax on expensive health-care plans such as those enjoyed by President Obama’s union constituents — are put off. The law of the land has for years called for precisely the same Medicare cuts that the new legislation alleges to require, and each year Congress has declined to administer that bitter pill to America’s physicians. Sensible health-care reform — and Obamacare is not it — will be necessary to ensure the long-term solvency of American government. Which is to say, Republicans should regard this as a starting point, not as the finish line. But Mr. Bowles and Mr. Simpson have performed a public service by beginning the conversation on mature and realistic footing.

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COMMENTS   11

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   11/11/10 09:18

There is nothing in the Debt Commission proposal to be either pleasantly surprised or moderately encouraged about.

It is all about tax hikes and nothing about reducing expenditures. If this commission had been serious about their task they would have offered up Obamacare in its entirety.

Not addressing a VAT was simply throwing a bone to the crowd.

People who took out a 30 year mortgage did so based on the expectation that the mortgage deduction would enable them to make their house payments for the duration of the mortgage. Eliminating the mortgage deduction, or modifying it, will have terrible consequences.

Repealing the state and local tax deductions, coupled with the mortgage deduction proposal, will do nothing less than screw we average Joes out here in the heartland. It is a tax hike that defies description.

All of these tax hikes and not addressing Obamacare is akin to your local retailer who raises his prices two weeks before he announces a huge sale.

This proposal is pathetic.

Simpson and Bowles should be ashamed of themselves. Classic Beltway stuff. Give me a break.

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   11/11/10 13:11

I don't know what you people like about this pitiful proposal that puts the responsibility for paying down the debt on middle class taxpayers and retirees. How about a 10% across the board pay cut (like the one I took this year) for all Federal employees including the executive branch and the congress and while we're at it include a 25% reduction of the whole federal labor force? How about a 50% reduction of staff for members of congress? How about a freeze on all congressional overseas travel...why do US members of congress need to go overseas anyway? How about a freeze on all foreign aid? What about the $150 million taxpayer dollars they sent to the Palestinian criminals this week?
By the way, NRO's support of this nightmare has eliminated any possibility of any contribution I would have considered sending. You all have apparently been infiltrated by the Obama administration goons. I'll not be looking here again.
Bye.

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 JPK
   11/11/10 13:33

The first of many traps are being sprung on the GOP. This is just one of them. Thus far, it looks like the Commission hasn't a problem with the size and scope of the federal government; it is focused soley on the defecit. Mistake number one (and it's a big one). The US government now spends upwards of $4 trillion a year. And this commission essientially keeps in stone most of the spending.

I can still remember the 1991 battles of taxes and spending. Bush41 gave in; he took the blame for raising taxes, while the promised spending cuts never materialized. Best to reject most of the commission's findings. We pay both Congress and the Exective to craft budgets and to live with the results. It's time they do just that.

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   11/11/10 13:33

I am of two minds on the mortgage deduction. On one hand, it was a stupid idea to begin with. Its long term impact would only inure to the benefit of those who had already bought a home, as the tax benefit has been reflected in the cost of housing for years.

On the other hand, eliminating it now would leave existing homeowners stranded with upside down mortgages. This essentially represents a HUGE tax increase for the middle class.

To which, I think Republicans should use this to make the case that we cannot afford Obamacare. Repeal Obamacare, or repeal the mortgage deduction. Let's see which the voters prefer.

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   11/11/10 13:45

Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson both need to be FIRED IMMEDIATELY. Their early onset of senility about reality with their so-called'proposals' is a joke and the joke is on the voters in this country. IF these are the only solutions to the dems running up the largest deficit in the history of OUR country, we are in deep dodo.Which rock did these out of touch whackos crawl out from under?? Please, somebody, show them the way back to their lair, for the good of the good ole USA.Maybe they can take Nancy Pelosi with them.

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   11/11/10 14:33

You are falling for a trap if you agree to reducing annual budget deficits instead of reducing the size of government itself.

Are we for fiscal responsibility only, or are we for fiscal responsibility and smaller government.

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 Fred
   11/11/10 15:20

What part of not one more dime for government do these people not understand?

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   11/11/10 15:43

So they want a new norm of higher spending levels and they want to remove my mortgage interest deduction. What could go wrong with that??? I think I will just stop making my mortgage payment. It will take them a year or two to get my house and I won't have to worry about losing the deduction....

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   11/11/10 16:28

The 'fat fish in the federal sea' sentence was stupendous. Alliterative and illustrative of the point! Is there a word for a sentence that looks like what it describes?

If not, there should be!

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   11/11/10 20:02

Until the big three debt bombs (Social Security, Medicare, and Obamacare) are contained or eliminated, it will matter little about cutting other things. In fact eliminating other things will likely lead to MORE spending on these three.

We need a constitutional amendment prohibiting spending of any money on non-defense or not in the constitution spending (though the post office should still go, even though its in the constitution). Period.

Because the minute big spenders are elected or the economy picks up again, all is well and huge spending comes back. It has to be impossible for them to spend money!

Then we need to go after most departments of the federal government for complete elimination. They have to be completely killed so they don't grow back. The federal government is doing so many things it shouldn't be doing and are unconstitutional to boot.

We need to change the idea that the federal government is there to solve problems, because it really can't. It doesn't matter that people think that it can, it just can't.

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   11/13/10 12:44

I am terribly disappointed in the editors. Must we always play Charlie Brown to the liberals' Lucy? How many times must we be promised spending cuts in exchange for tax increases before we learn the latter always happen and the former never do?

And even if Lucy finally leaves the ball on the ground this time, so what? Whether Americans are taxed too lightly is no longer on the table for discussion.

It is disconcerting that, less than two weeks after the Tea Party movement powered the Republicans to a significant victory, the conservative magazine of record would agree that we are not taxed enough. Have we so soon forgotten that the "Tea" in "Tea Party" is an acronym for "Taxed Enough Already"?

The commission proposes no reduction in the size or scope of the federal government. Instead, it normalizes its present size and cost. Which guarantees government will continue growing, perhaps more slowly, yet still will it grow.

You say that even the most Tea Party-steeped Republican could get behind this as a starting point. You misjudge. Tea Party-steeped Republicans who accept this as a legitimate opening salvo will have a very short Congressional tenure.

I had expected more from my beloved National Review. I'd best have an extra Scotch tonight.

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