What might happen in the upcoming year? We asked a few of National Review Online’s sages to prophesy the events of 2011.
JOHN DERBYSHIRE
Domestic affairs: 2011 will be the year that the full scale of our fiscal crisis becomes clear, even to politicians. They will likely be able to postpone the inevitable for another year or so, though. (The inevitable being real, massive reductions in federal and state spending, entitlements cut to the bone, major public-sector layoffs, etc.) Start practicing the term “QE3.” Of course, the longer the politicians postpone it, the worse the crash will be: but politicians always think the horse may sing.
Federal bailouts of states and cities whose finances have collapsed will become a major issue. Citizens of better-managed jurisdictions, and Tea Partiers everywhere, will object mightily, and the rest of us will watch in horror as the deficit doubles, but the bailouts will happen anyway for fear of a devastating crisis in the bond markets.
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Numerology: People will make a great fuss about 11/11/11.
Vocabulary: The word “austerity” will be heard a lot.
The culture: Obsessive texting on tiny communication gadgets will become so widespread that at some moment in some daylight hour of 2011, nobody in the U.S.A. will be speaking to anyone else.
Foreign affairs: One country will leave the euro, probably Germany.
China will begin visibly to turn the corner from Wirtschaftswunder to 東亞病夫 (Sick Man of Asia) as all the rising graphs start to flatten out. Environmental degradation, class resentments, demographic cratering, corruption, and fiscal reality will gain ground over resource development, embourgeoisement, entrepreneurial energy, Party authority, and grandiose government projects. Just a beginning, nothing very dramatic: a big-city demonstration out of control here, a local food or water crisis there, some high-profile corruption trials, continuing intractable price inflation …
Math: Some generous publisher will offer me a handsome advance to write a book on the Banach-Tarski Paradox.
Leadership: Barack Obama will turn 50, the age at which Confucius said he knew the will of Heaven.
— John Derbyshire is a contributor editor of National Review.
JONAH GOLDBERG
My predictions for 2011 will be 12.7 percent more accurate than my 2010 elections were, which is to say not very accurate at all.
By the end of the year, WikiLeaks will be recognized as the “Napster” of data-dump sites and Julian Assange as the Shawn Fanning of a phenomenon that totally eclipses his importance.
The mainstream media will, by the end of the year, start to rekindle its love for Obama after a few months of bickering and sniping over his alleged move to the center.
Obama will face another moment arguably similar to the Iranian Green revolution, only this time in North Korea. He will opt for stability over freedom, again.
There will be a large number of very successful symbolic cuts to the budget and too few substantive ones.
Newt Gingrich will do much better than expected in the pre-primary debates, garnering support from both anti-establishment conservatives who don’t think Sarah Palin is electable and from mainstream conservatives who don’t think Romney is conservative enough.
The total number of “serious” candidates seeking the Republican nomination will be over twelve. The number of “serious” candidates running after the South Carolina primary will be less than six.
Guantanamo Bay prison will not be closed.
Fidel Castro will die.
Europe’s financial crisis will get far worse. At least one country will actively try to leave the Euro, causing a major political crisis.
China will experience a major economic correction, causing global concern over Chinese political stability.
A rise in global food prices will create an international crisis.
By the end of the year, no one will think the Newsweek–Daily Beast merger was a good idea.
There will be no major international global-warming agreements.
My predictions for 2012 will have a lot more jokes.
— Jonah Goldberg is an editor-at-large of National Review Online.
I loved that two of you predicted that Fidel Castro would die but is anyone willing to predict a free Cuba?
I loved that one of you thinks the Phillies will get it this year and who could disagree, now that we finally have that great pitcher lineup? But aren't the Eagles giving Philadelphia some excitement?
After wrapping up state legislative session in June, Texas Governor Rick Perry will "reluctantly" announce he is running for President - not because he wants to be President, but because the People of Texas NEED him to be President in order to undo all the damage the federal gummint has done to his beloved sovereign Republic.
Sarah Palin will immediately endorse him, and pretty much every other candidate will drop out before the Iowa Caucus.
Interesting predictions all. Also many of them are in good humor. Unfortunately I didn't see any sign that we would be spending less by the end of 2011. Let's hope that happens.
I also I agree with Derbyshire about China they are in for a rough time soon. That will mean that Friedman might run out of things to write about.
If Castro dies to face judgment than at least we will have one victory for freedom to celebrate.
Census 2010 redistricting shenanigans by both Republicans and Democrats will be picked up as a significant issue by the Tea Party which will result in constitutional amendments in several states putting redistricting in the hands of the people by combining elements of Ohio's competition, the Iowa Plan and Illinois Fair Map in time for Census 2020.
The US will continue to be embarrassed by the Taliban. The incomes of the top 1% will grow. The incomes of the bottom 99% will not. Sarah Palin will run as a third party candidate, if necessary. The defense department's budget, bailouts for ceo bonuses, and aid to Israel will grow. Territory we control in Afghanistan, domestic spending on the middle class, the average life expectancy, and our influence in the global economy will shrink. Airports will probe all passengers who don't confess faith in christ. Terrorists will blow up a plane anyway. The stock market will rise. Consumer demand will fall. The poor and powerless, along with the potheads and gays, will be blamed. Faux News will lie. Glenn Greenwald will tell the truth. Everyone will believe Faux News. Glenn Greenwald and Julian Assange will be crucified without being charged. Dick Cheney will have the heart of a healthy 16 year old removed to replace his heart.
1) Sarah Palin, Mitch Daniels and Mike Pence will each opt not to run for President. Pence will run for Governor of Indiana, and Sarah Palin will dominate the coverage of the primary she's not in.
2) The organized left-wing campaign to refer to Fox News as "Faux News" adds an additional 5 million viewers to Fox's evening lineup, further depleting MSNBC's almost-nonexistent audience.
3) In game 7 of the World Series, Cliff Lee gives up the game-winning home run in the bottom of the 9th. The AL team will be batting in the bottom frame because the AL will have won the All-Star game.
4) The Philadelphia Eagles football club will select Patrick Peterson, a cornerback out of LSU, with their 1st round pick in the 2011 NFL Player Selection Meeting, otherwise known as the "Draft", after trading up.
5) Don Mattingly will have a successful 1st season as the LA Dodgers' MLB manager.
6) A protracted military conflict between North and South Korea, with Kim Jong Il's son leading the North, consumes the attention of the Obama administration and the world. Obama names retired Senator George Mitchell as Special Envoy to the Korean Peninsula. His position is that S. Korea should remain free, if possible.
