Who among us can contain their excitement? The GOP presidential-primary season has begun!
By my count, there are 24 people who are beneficiaries of nontrivial presidential buzz: Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, John Thune, Tim Pawlenty, Mitch Daniels, Mike Pence, Rick Santorum, Haley Barbour, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, Paul Ryan, David Petraeus, Ron Paul, Jeb Bush, John Bolton, Bob McDonnell, Jim DeMint, Chris Christie, Herman Cain, Gary Johnson, Judd Gregg, Marco Rubio, and Rick Perry.
With a heavy heart, I take it upon myself to winnow the field down for you.
Half of these people are almost surely not running.
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Earlier this year, there was a lot of talk about Petraeus running. But then the Army general gave a lot of dull, substantive speeches in which he didn’t say anything about ethanol or the Hawkeye State’s divine right to hold the first-in-the-nation contest. Seems like he prefers Kandahar to Ames.
Rubio, Ryan, and Jindal, respectively the incoming junior senator from Florida, the incoming chairman of the House Budget Committee, and the governor of Louisiana, are all wisely sitting out the presidential contest to concentrate on their to-do lists, though the three golden boys of the GOP are ripe vice-presidential picks.
Former Florida governor Jeb Bush and the current governors of New Jersey, Virginia, and Texas — Christie, McDonnell, and Perry — probably aren’t running, though they all enjoy deep reservoirs of admiration on the right, particularly Christie, whose YouTube videos are passed around like samizdat. Also, there’s growing buzz that Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and a fierce defender of his top-tier contender status, may not run because he’s got a big new contract with Fox News in the works.
DeMint, the South Carolina senator and the Tea Party’s man on the inside, has said he’s not running but acts as if he might be. Meanwhile, Gregg, New Hampshire’s retiring senator, acts likes he’s not running but hasn’t ruled it out. (If he did run as New Hampshire’s favorite son, it would complicate things for Romney.) Pence, the Indiana representative, definitely wants to run but now may switch to the Indiana governorship instead.
Barbour, perhaps the sharpest political operator with a natural Southern constituency in a Southern-dominated party, could be a front-runner (and a hilarious and adept debate opponent for Obama), but his plans remain murky.
That leaves eleven who are probably, but not definitely, running: Romney, Gingrich, Palin, Pawlenty, Santorum, Bolton, Daniels, Cain, Johnson, Paul, and Thune.
Five of are unlikely to last long as serious contenders, not least because talk-show and grass-roots popularity doesn’t necessarily win in the “money primary.”
Paul’s issues — gutting the Federal Reserve, shrinking government, foreign-policy noninterventionism, drug legalization — are the ripest they’ve ever been in the GOP. But, at 75, that’s just about the only way “ripe” and “Ron Paul” can be used together in a sentence.
Thune will probably discover early that his Senate colleagues’ telling him to run isn’t necessarily a compliment. In many respects, Thune is the GOP version of John Kerry: a candidate with very presidential hair who seems “electable” despite not having done much of anything.
Bolton, the famously mustachioed and gruff former U.N. ambassador (like Gingrich, a colleague of mine at the American Enterprise Institute, where I’m a visiting fellow), is a tireless and brilliant guy, but he’s never run for federal office. Presumably he wants to highlight national-security issues and, I hope, duke it out with Ron Paul.
This is about as good a breakdown of the 2012 field as I've seen. I have a list of 11 I've been watching as likely to run that is similar to Jonah's, though I include DeMint, Barbour, and Huckabee and leave out Paul (too old), Johnson (will be a non-factor) and Cain (never heard of him).
I figure that 11 breaks out into three mini-primaries: Insider Favs (Barbour, Daniels, Thune, Bolton), Tea Party backed (Palin, DeMint), and Vanity exercises (Romney, Pawlenty, Gingrich, Huckabee, Santorum). My bet is that Daniels, Palin, and Romney consolidate support among those groups and end up the last one's standing. I sure hope Daniels pulls away from there. It's gonna be interesting.
The economy will not be humming. Mitch Daniels is a formidable opponent because no one knows him and therefore he's the "Generic Republican" who beats Obama in the polls.
Clinton himself only got 49% of the vote with a "humming" economy.
I'd personally rather see Pence than Daniels, simply because I believe Pence would be a more compelling vessel for the same sound Conservative policies. Of course he's never run a campaign beyond his district, so there's a serious question whether he's got the political chops to win.
Did you edit out a few paragraphs. Not that I am a Huckafan, but why is he not in the final tier candidates? I am guessing you wrote something about it but I did not see it.
I like Mitch Daniels because he seems to be a smart guy who gets fiscal conservatism. But I cannot believe our choices are so limited. I am not a DC wonk, however.
A number of things intrigue me about the five that you pick. First, can anyone remember a field that is this bunched together, especially in the top three? For the first time in my life (I believe), there isn't a clear front-runner for the nomination just 12-months before the first primary. That's unusual.
Is 2012 going to be the first GOP presidential primary cycle in generations that might actually see a brokered convention? Do the mechanics of the modern-day primaries allow any chance of that happening?
Romney & Palin seem destined to duke it out - Romney because of his enormous access to spending money, and Palin because of her wealth of support amongst the Tea Partiers. Is your five person field really a two person field, as a practical reality. I don't know.
I'm a Hoosier, I can't get excited about Daniels. He's kept the budget in order, but he's not serious about cutting anything, taxes or government. He raised our sales tax and my property taxes went up significantly. Most recently he said he'd sign a Nanny Bloomberg style smoking ban if it passed (Democrat sponsored BTW):
Palin is completely unelectable, and the conservative movement needs to have a serious discussion about that without getting shouted down.
How many more polls do we need to see to know that she'll lose? She has universal name recognition, unemployment is near 10%, and Obama has a 40% approval rating, yet every poll Obama beats Palin by double digits.
You can see Liberals salivating at the idea of saving their failed messiah Obama.
I'm hoping a Paul Ryan or Marco Rubio step up to the plate.
Why does this sound depressingly like an "Obama in '12" prediction?
Romney - GWB's 3rd term, without the conservative judge appointments. Color me unimpressed.
Gingrich - Sure, if this were 1994. The Newt Gingrich of 2010 (and one assumes 2012) is so far removed from 1994 that he would be a 3rd GWB term with the conservative judges.
Palin - The media has convinced the sheeple that she is unfit for anthing. The things said about her by otherwise intelligent people convince me that she doesn't stand a chance.
Pawlenty and Daniels (one and the same to most people) - Since only republicans can be too inexperienced for office, this narrative will stick to these two like glue, and will be applied by people who WERE to inexperienced and have PROVEN to be unqualified for the office they now hold.
John Thune - all face and no substance
Mike Pence - if he's feeling froggy, should jump now
Rick Santorum - see Howard Dean
Haley Barbour - can already see the Boss Hogg ads
Mike Huckabee - smug populism won't hold up in reruns
Bobby Jindal - more administrator than leader
Paul Ryan - not approachable or humorous enough
David Petraeus - wrong battle field
Ron Paul - see Ralph Nader
Jeb Bush - brings The Demon Bush into play
John Bolton - unappreciated, unknown by masses
Bob McDonnell - nationwide anonymity could be a plus
Jim DeMint - see Barry Goldwater
Chris Christie - bully rep won't help
Herman Cain - too gimmicky
Gary Johnson - who? and website sucks
Judd Gregg - see John McCain
Marco Rubio - 2020
Rick Perry - too much baggage
Sarah Palin - see Dan Quayle
Mitt Romney - healthcare albatross
Newt Gingrich - too Gingrich-ey
Tim Pawlenty - what do nice guys do?
Mitch Daniels - see Tim Pawlenty
Best chance of winning from this list?
Mike Pence, Paul Ryan, Bob McDonnell
I would add Pawlenty and Daniels to the best chance list, but they better dial it up a notch and get some tea party type love.
Romney - RomneyCare stops him
Palin - Definitely the front runner but her ceiling may be too low
Gingrich - His time has past
Pawlenty - Dark Horse
Daniels - Too unknown
Rubio and Christie are the only ones who could win against a recovering Obama. It's a lost cause I'm afraid. Does anyone really get excited about Romney or Gingrich? Really? Look deep in your hearts and answer that one.
Lets skip the Presidential election and thus depress democratic turnout and spend wildly on building a solid congressional majority instead.
Of all those on the list, I like Mike Pence the most (true conservative credentials, incredibly intelligent) but it's been a long LONG time since anyone form the House has ever made it to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave (see James Garfield).
Sarah Palin is a populist with way too much baggage. She could conceivably win the GOP Primary but she'd be crushed in the general election unless some serious political changes occur (like liberals and moderates forgetting which day is election day...).
Haley Barbour is actually a very astute politician and could conceivably give The One a good run for the money BUT the social/political optics are really bad - old chubby white guy from the deep south with a nice southern drawl running against the first black President...we're not talking "race card" here, we're talking the ENTIRE deck of race cards...
Daniels - I like, but there's a lot of road out there to cover and the Harley just ain't gonna get you to every corner of the country...
My favorite is Romney, but he's admittedly got some warts. None of the frontrunners is without warts, IMO.
His burning desire for a Free & Strong America will show much better this election as he makes his case for POTUS. He's more relaxed now and won't be overselling himself (which many people agree he did in 2007/2008). I think voters will be drawn in as long as they're willing to listen to the case he'll make.
I caution against the whole horse race psychology that infests election analysis before and during campaigns. Find the candidate who would serve best as President and back him/her with money and effort.
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