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Obama’s New Start
Republicans no longer have the wind at their backs.

By Charles Krauthammer


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Riding the lamest of ducks, President Obama just won the Triple Crown. He fulfilled (1) his most important economic priority, passage of Stimulus II, a.k.a. the tax-cut deal (the perfect pre-reelection fiscal sugar high — the piper gets paid in 2013 and beyond); (2) his most important social-policy objective, repeal of “don’t ask, don’t tell”; and (3) his most cherished (achievable) foreign-policy goal, ratification of the New START treaty with Russia.

Politically, these are all synergistic. The bipartisan nature of the tax deal instantly repositioned Obama back to the center. And just when conventional wisdom decided the deal had caused irreparable alienation from his liberal base, Obama almost immediately won it back — by delivering one of the gay-rights movement’s most elusive and coveted breakthroughs.

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The symbolism of the “don’t ask, don’t tell” repeal cannot be underestimated. It’s not just that for the civil-rights community, it represents a long-awaited extension of the historic arc — first blacks, then women, now gays. It was also Obama decisively transcending the triangulated trimming of Bill Clinton, who instituted “don’t ask, don’t tell” in the first place. Even more subtly and understatedly, the repeal represents the taming of the most conservative of the nation’s institutions, the military, by a movement historically among the most avant-garde. Whatever your views, that is a cultural landmark.

Then came START, which was important for Obama not just because of the dearth of foreign-policy achievements in these last two years but because treaties, especially grand-sounding treaties on strategic arms, carry the aura of presidential authority and diplomatic mastery.

No matter how useless they are, or even how damaging. New START was significantly, if subtly, damaging, which made the rear-guard Republican opposition it engendered so salutary. The debate it sparked garnered the treaty more attention than it would have gotten otherwise and thus gave Obama a larger PR victory. But that debate also amplified the major flaw in the treaty — the gratuitous re-establishment of the link between offensive and defensive weaponry.

One of the great achievements of the last decade was the Bush administration’s severing of that link — first by its withdrawal from the ABM Treaty, which had expressly prevented major advances in missile defense, and then with the 2002 Treaty of Moscow, which regulated offensive weapons but ostentatiously contained not a single word about any connection to missile defense. Why is this important? Because missile defense is essential for protecting ourselves from the most menacing threat of the coming century — nuclear hyper-proliferation.

The relinking that we acquiesced to in the preamble to New START is a major reversal of that achievement. Sure, Obama sought to reassure critics with his letter to the Senate promising unimpeded development of our European missile-defense system. But the Russians have already watched this president cancel our painstakingly planned Polish and Czech missile defenses in response to Russian protests and threats. That’s why they insisted we formally acknowledge an “interrelationship” between offense and defense. They know that their threat to withdraw from START, if the U.S. were to build defenses that displease them, will inevitably color — and restrain — future U.S. missile-defense advances and deployments.

The difficulty Obama had overcoming the missile-defense objection will serve to temper the rest of his nuclear agenda, including U.S. entry into the test-ban treaty, and place Obama’s ultimate goal of total nuclear disarmament blessedly out of reach. Conservatives can thus take solace that their vigorous opposition to START will likely prevent further disarmament mischief down the road. But what they cannot deny is the political boost the treaty’s ratification gives Obama today, a mere seven weeks after his Election Day debacle.

The great liberal ascendancy of 2008, destined to last 40 years (predicted James Carville), lasted less than two. Yet, the great Republican ascendancy of 2010 lasted less than two months. Republicans will enter the 112th Congress with larger numbers but no longer with the wind — the overwhelming Nov. 2 repudiation of Obama’s social-democratic agenda — at their backs.

“Harry Reid has eaten our lunch,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, lamenting his side’s “capitulation” in the lame-duck session. Yes, but it was less Harry than Barry. Obama came back with a vengeance. His string of lame-duck successes is a singular political achievement. Because of it, the epic battles of the 112th Congress begin on what would have seemed impossible just one month ago — a level playing field.

— Charles Krauthammer is a nationally syndicated columnist. © 2010 The Washington Post Writers Group.

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COMMENTS   6

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 Tom
   12/26/10 08:28

Chuck,
Step back from the ledge. Get a grip. The dynamic changes when the new Congress is seated. What is unprecedented is the ramming through of substanial legislation during a lame duck session. Maybe, just maybe, Obama has found new skills that will help him peel of Republicans to help with his agenda. But how do you reconcile all this with the defeat of the omnibus spending bill?
Tom

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JT
   12/26/10 19:40

Charles-

You are correct that the President is still the President and has lots of political acumen.

However ramming through a bunch of pet favorites because you have 59 in the senate and a huge edge in the house isn't all that impressive. Remember President Bush was required to immidiately work with the new leadership...the media demanded it. President Obama had the leeway for the media to cheer the last moves of an all democratic congress.

Wait until he needs the house to start a bill (Aka the budget) and the senate to finish. He won't have home field in the house anymore and the GOP won't have to rely on Collins and snowe any more. Different ball game.

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   12/27/10 09:58

"the great Republican ascendancy of 2010" has fallen before any newly elected representative was even sworn in? WOW.
That Obama, with the exception of the "ObamaCare" legislation, had to wait until a lame-duck session to ram through major legislation using the huge majorities he enjoyed for two full years - has thwarted a Conservative victory in November? WOW.
Let us give our new leaders the opportunity to fail before we cast them as Socialist RINOs. The fact that Leftist Legislation could not pass until many Dems discovered they would not be serving in the 112th Congress is the story you should be writing.
Does that change the fact the legislation was passed? No.
Does that change the fact that Americans voted against the Obama agenda? No.
Does that change the fact that reporters are exposing the blatant disregard for the American public by elitists in Wasington? Apparently so.

We voters did our part in November. In January, it will be up to those we elected. NOW is the time for our news services to continue to beat the drums for our Conservative cause - as they so successfully did leading into November of 2010.

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   12/27/10 10:23

I disagree with Dr. Krauthammer.

I think Congress should not have enacted a repeal of DADT because it is bad for military morale. I also think enacting a repeal of DADT was important politically for President Obama and it will pay political dividends for the Democrats for years as wealthy gays give money to the DNC and individual Democratic candidates. However, the damage to our nation's military will probably be minimal and can be contained over the long run if this situation is handled correctly. I very much doubt that the military will become like the clergy whereby it becomes populated primarily by gay and female non-believers.

As for the START treaty, I am still at a loss to figure out what the Republican senators were thinking. This treaty was rammed through the U.S. Senate for the explicit purpose of preventing newly elected senators from considering it. I do not know whether it is a good treaty or a bad one. However, I do know that this is an important treaty that should have been considered using the ordinary procedures that enable full reflection upon the benefits and obligations of this agreement. I now question Richard Lugar's judgment and think he is not the foreign policy expert that he fancies himself to be.

At the end of the day, President Obama will be re-elected if the economy significantly improves between now and the Summer of 2012. Otherwise, he probably will not be re-elected. Everything else is too inside-the-beltway for ordinary voters. I think Dr. Krauthammer cannot see the forest for the trees because he is mired so deeply within inside circles in Washington, D.C.

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 JPK
   12/27/10 11:02

If anything, the President and his party have shown that they are ruthless in getting thier agenda passed. I think Mr Krauthammer is a bit mistaken if he thinks this was a great political accomplishment. The President and his party's strength for the 111th Congress was in thier numbers. And it was only these numbers that allowed him "his comeback". Even the predicted "cave-in" by GOP Senators would not have been made possible if it wasn't for the weak hand McConnel had to play. Getting these pet pieces of legislation through is akin to the New England Patriots playing Slippery Rock.

I think we should all wait 1 year before he begin singing praises to the Anointed One. The Dems had a great run. They took the ball and ran with it. And the GOP Senate may just yet be the President's best friend. But let's at least wait and see how 2012 pans out for him and our nation.

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noahp
   12/27/10 12:07

The LSM/dems would be screaming "abuse of power" if the situation in the lame duck were reversed. But we knew that.

But I fail to see how Obama advances his agenda in the next two years. Is there to be a coalition of Republican squishes and Dems on the budget? I doubt it but the R's historically do not inspire confidence. The next few months will tell the tale. Hang on to your hats gang.

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