Conservative insiders were not surprised by Indiana Republican Mike Pence’s decision not to run for president in 2012, but all agree his bowing out leaves the GOP nomination — in the phrase used again and again — “wide open.”
One source familiar with the effort to recruit Pence tells National Review Online that while Pence “could have united the conservative movement,” his departure leaves a Republican field that “is never going to be as wide-open again.”
Advertisement
“In six years or ten years it’s going to be an incredibly full field: The 2012 field is the Washington Nationals. Subsequent fields will be the 1927 New York Yankees,” the source says.
“The question is: Does this cause people to rethink? Does this make Jim DeMint rethink? Does anyone who feels disappointed in the current field rethink? It’s never been easier or cheaper to communicate with millions of people.”
While ruling himself out, Sen. Jim DeMint (R., S.C.) agreed, telling NRO that with the congressman gone as a paragon of “pro-growth, limited-government” conservatism, “there will be a lot of surprises” in terms of who jumps into the race.
According to sources close to Pence with knowledge of Indiana politics, a number of factors influenced the congressman’s decision to forgo a presidential run and instead turn his attention toward a possible gubernatorial run.
One source who met with Pence several times over the last few months tells NRO the conservative Hoosier “was extremely torn while he deliberated.” Another who met with Pence feels his heart was never completely in a bid for president.
Someone close to Pence explains that “the people closest to him, the friends and people he knew best from Indiana, wanted to see him come back to Indiana.” By contrast, “the support for him to run nationally was in large part from leaders of the national conservative movement” — who perhaps didn’t have the same sway as his longtime supporters.
Pence’s young family — he has three school-aged children — were also a factor in his decision, according to this source.
Then there was the difficult timing and the uncertainty of a presidential run. Because of his relatively low name recognition, the window for Pence to begin a blitz on early battleground states was closing rapidly. He would have had to kick into high campaign gear quickly — and without knowing whether Sarah Palin or other conservatives might jump into the race and overshadow him in his quest for the Tea Party vote.
Compared with all that, a run for governor seems simple. With the announcements that neither former senator Evan Bayh (D.) nor current lieutenant governor Becky Skillman (R.) would run to succeed Mitch Daniels, Pence, 51, became easily the most well-known, and well-liked, of potential candidates.
Indeed, the Republican Governors Association has been aggressively recruiting Pence to hold the Indiana executive mansion. RGA head Gov. Rick Perry of Texas and vice chairman Gov. Bob McDonnell of Virginia both put in calls to Pence urging a run.
Pence is unlikely to officially announce a gubernatorial bid anytime soon, since declared candidates aren’t allowed to raise money until April 30 (whereas Pence can continue to raise money as a member of Congress).
But Indiana senator Dan Coats tells NRO that if and when Pence does announce, he will enter the governor’s race as the frontrunner.
“He is clearly someone who could carry on the remarkable success of Mitch Daniels,” Coats says. “I am going to strongly encourage him to run. I know he’s going to take a little time to assess it, but I hope he’s our next governor.”
He should be a great replacement for Mitch Daniels in 2012. Indiana has done pretty well (at least compared with the states around it) with Daniels in charge, Pence could take it to the next level.
I'm getting rather tired of some folks saying that the future (2016 and beyond) is bright and what we've got now as possibilities for POTUS 2012 stink.
Every candidate has warts. There is no "perfect POTUS candidate" out there and it's defeatist to talk down our current crop.
I find it interesting that some think that Mike Pence, with all his positive attributes, had "closed" the field to begin with. He's about as obscure an individual as can be - outside Indiana and a few conservative think tanks.
I agree with Mr. Jenkins' comment above. I mean no disrespect to Pence, and perhaps he might have turned out to be the long-shot dark horse that would have won the POTUS race; and he may well now be the front-runner in the Indiana gubernatorial race. But he's "bowing out" (a strange locution; when was he ever "in"?) before having ever convinced me, at least, that he was a serious contender, or even a semi-serious contender, for POTUS.
It may ill serve the interests of conservatism to say this, but I applaud Mr. Pence for making the decision he made and for the grounds on which he made it. Having just recently finished a biography of Henry Clay, and comparing the intrusiveness of public life as experienced today from what it was in his day, I'm left with the somber reflection that our society has created a monster. Mr. Pence can be Governor of Indiana, and still have a life. He does not have that option as a President. As a devotee of the law of unintended consequences, I offer the thought that this reality is going to limit the caliber and the character - and at a minimum the variety - of people willing to make the sacrifice necessary to campaign for the presidency.
With Palin, Pence would have had nothing to worry about. Had Pence entered the race, it was 100% certain that Palin would not only not run herself, but would have been among the first, if not the very first, to give a full-throated endorsement for Pence.
There would have been no name recognition issue, either. That would have been solved within two weeks of his announcement to seek the presidency, as strong, unwavering endorsements from all ends of the national conservative network would have coalesced around his candidacy very quickly. The US population would have known his entire biography before springtime.
The only thing that could possibly have derailed his almost-certain glide path to the endorsement would have been a revelation of moral turpitude larger in scope than the run-of-the-mill youthful indiscretion.
It is very interesting to hear many notable talking heads question the prospects for a member of the House of Rep. to earn a presidential nomination, and then in another breath state that Pence's decision not to seek that endorsement makes the GOP field thoroughly "wide open."
He had zero chance, say the experts, but good thing for everyone else he isn't running.
Ranger Rick is exactly right. I fear the problem is far more dire than he expressed, however.
As it stands now, our federal government operates well nigh beyond its express, constituted authority. So, an awful lot of what it does is thoroughly illegitimate.
A governmental authority of that size and illegitimate nature attracts a certain type of character to administer the enforcement division of that government - the executive branch.
It requires a certain level of disrespect and disinterest in our nation's fundamental charter to desire to enforce or even marshal into policy governmental prerogatives that exceed the limitations on such authority.
Only the raving power-mad need apply.
And that is why Mike Pence would have had to expend considerable negative energy for me to support ANYONE ELSE but him for President.
I'll say it for the third time at this site: His speech to Hillsdale College regarding the constitutional parameters of the office of the President and the proper functioning of it is nothing short of a masterpiece expose on Article II of our US Constitution.
No one, including Reagan, in my lifetime has ever espoused on the office of the President with such fidelity to the express language of that charter, or with such eloquence.
Madisonian, you are so right. I agree with every word.
I do believe that Jim DeMint or Paul Ryan could come close to delivering what we could have had with Pence. But I don't think they will run. I hope I'm wrong.
Republican unity will once again be missing in action if we have to choose from the seven dwarfs that are being recycled from the 2008 field.While America hears the caterwauling left as it ties the Conservatism bogey-man tin can to the nominees tail we will in reality have a choice between candidates who WE HOPE ensues Conservative ideals once elected or practices re-thinking government not shrinking the size of government.If we can not persuade people like Pence,Ryan,DeMint or others who would adhere to the Constitution to run we will continue to have a President who subordinates the Constitution to his own ideological beliefs.
I would so like to see General Paul Vallely run for President. He has all qualifications and is a true patriot. Check out SUA blog (Stand up America) and verify his qualifications.
Follow
