For a week, people have been asking, “Why won’t the president release Osama bin Laden’s photo?” That’s the wrong question. We should be asking, “Why was Barack Obama in such a hurry to tell us bin Laden was dead?”
The White House says the information in bin Laden’s compound is the equivalent of a “small college library,” potentially containing incalculably valuable and unique data on al-Qaeda operations, personnel, and methods.
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“It’s going to be great even if only 10 percent of it is actionable,” a government official told Politico’s Mike Allen.
I’m no expert on such matters — though I’ve talked to several about this — but even a casual World War II buff can understand that the shelf life of actionable intelligence would be extended if we hadn’t told the whole world, and al-Qaeda in particular, that we had it.
It’s a bit like racing to the microphones to announce you’ve stolen the other team’s playbook before you’ve had a chance to use the information in the big game.
But that’s exactly what President Obama did. He raced to spill the beans. The man couldn’t even wait until morning. At just after 9:45 p.m., the White House communications director, Dan Pfeiffer, informed the media: “POTUS to address the nation tonight at 10:30 p.m. Eastern Time.”
The announcement came less than three hours after Obama had been informed that there was a “high probability” that bin Laden was dead and that the Navy SEAL helicopters had returned to Afghanistan.
In other words, it seems that the White House planned to crow as soon as possible. Why? Nobody I’ve talked to can think of a reason that doesn’t have to do with politics or hubris.
Yes, killing Osama bin Laden would have been a big secret that would have been hard to keep for long. Certainly, Pakistan would grow agitated if we simply said nothing about the incursion, though sweating the Janus-faced Pakistanis with silence for a couple of days might yield its own intelligence rewards. In other words, even waiting 24 hours might generate some interesting “chatter.” The Pakistanis working with al-Qaeda certainly would have been the first to spread the news that bin Laden was dead or captured.
But the real treasure trove is that “college library” of intelligence.
And while reports are pouring out from a gloating White House that’s leaking like the Titanic in its final hours, one can only assume our analysts have barely begun to exploit the data. Couldn’t they have at least tried to give the CIA a week, a day, even a few more hours to look at it all before letting Ayman al-Zawahiri and the rest of al-Qaeda know about it? Why give him the slightest head start to go even further underground?
Operation Neptune Spear was the culmination of years of patient intelligence-gathering. The CIA identified bin Laden’s compound nearly ten months ago, in August 2010, and monitored it by satellite and from a secret safe house in Abbottabad at a cost of tens of millions of dollars.
And even that was breakneck speed compared with the years our government spent hunting bin Laden. In 2002, the CIA heard about a possible courier codenamed Abu Ahmed al-Kuwaiti. In 2004, it learned that he might have worked closely with bin Laden. It wasn’t until 2007 that it got al-Kuwaiti’s real name. It took two more years to track him down to a specific region.
That, of course, barely skims the surface of American patience and sacrifice. We’ve spent billions of dollars and lost numerous American and allied lives trying to defeat al-Qaeda. Those efforts have ripped apart our politics, from the debates over waterboarding and what some claim is torture to extraordinary rendition, black sites, and Guantanamo Bay. Some of those techniques and decisions seem to have led us to bin Laden’s door.
Surely one more week of harmlessly searching hard drives while the public was kept in the dark wouldn’t have been too great an additional burden. The White House would have still gotten their moment to preen and to ride their bump in the polls as far as they could. All they had to do is hold their tongues for a little while longer.
Obama says he won’t release bin Laden’s death photo for fear that American triumphalism might hurt American interests. Would that he had the same concern when it came to White House triumphalism.
— Jonah Goldberg is editor-at-large of National Review Online and a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. You can write to him by e-mail at JonahsColumn@aol.com, or via Twitter @JonahNRO.
I guess donning a flight suit costume in mockery of real soldiers would be more appropriate. White House triumpalism? You are sick. Kill bin laden and endless criticism from the right. Bush turns his back on bin laden, starts two wars and let's nearly 8 years of al queda to develop and you abuse the guy who got him. my god
As if this could have been kept secret. It was a raid in the middle of a nominally friendly country full of people who hate America, good luck keeping things quiet in Pakistan. And DC keeps secrets about as well as 12 year old girls at slumber parties.
Listen, if there is a movement to bash the President on policy or ideology, I'll either start it or be at the front of the line to join in. But sometimes, somethings really are not political outside the beltway.
Hard to believe, I know, as politicians and their croanies spin everything as a political win or loss, and fervent citizens are pressed to fall into one camp or the other.
Lost is the traditional behavior of each party serving the National interests of America and her citizens. Today, the National interests of America and her citizens must be manipulated to serve a Party.
Sometimes the right thing can be done for the wrong reason. When the opportunity presented, bringing about the death of bin Laden was the right thing.
Ah, the loony left is a bit upset with Jonah's article. What a shock.
Answer me this Statists: Outside of seeking political gain on the homefront, someone please explain to me what the advantage was for the administration to brag about the intel found at OBL's compound? Why not keep it quiet and keep the enemy guessing?
I don't think anyone begrudges the President a little bit of celebration. After-all, he did campaign on Afghanistan being the "good war", the necessary and just war.
The question is, "Now what?" Almost 1000 servicemen have died in Afghanistan since Obama was inaugerated; much of the country is controlled by either the Taliban or Al Qaida; opium is the nation's only legitimate industry, and who knows where much of the UN/US aid money is ending up.
Proponents of "staying the course", argue that the instability of Afghanistan alone will only get worse if we leave. Drug lords will get richer and finance operations that will end up killing Americans in the long run; more of the nation will fall under control of the narco-terrorists, and foreign troublemakers could begin again to make trouble.
I understand those arguments. But, if one is fair, one can say that describes Northern Mexico to a T. The areas bodering the US are controlled by narco-terrorists, large cadres of illegals (of what nationality we haven't a clue) are smuggled in daily; and certain areas of our border are now under effective control of the narco-terrorists when night falls. And these "capos" are not some rag tag peasants with Uzis. They are well trained and are armed with sophisticated weapons. Some places in Arizona and Texas are virtual No-Go zones. Yet, we have 100,000 of our finest soldiers playing whack-a-mole in Afghanistan.
"In other words, it seems that the White House planned to crow as soon as possible. Why? Nobody I’ve talked to can think of a reason that doesn’t have to do with politics or hubris."
Have you forgotten that the mission secrecy was breached when we left behind the remains of a stealth helo? What was the administration to do? Along with the remains of a secret U.S. helo, we left several dead bodies and Bin Laden's wife. The administration likely had to change plans when the helicopter crashed. There was no denying what occured.
oh gee, you people really are perplexed with how to deal with the fact that the President did in 2 years what Bush "I'm not that concerned with [Bin Laden]" couldn't do in 8--despite the torture, despite invading and occupying a country that had nothing to do with 9/11, etc. It's so fun watching you twist in the wind and grasp at straws. THERE WAS AN MH-60 helo left on site! do you think the deal wasn't gonna be apparent? Keep it up Goldberg, is this the best you can do after more than a week? Pathetic effort really...
And how ironic (and sad) that a man who adamantly opposed and swore to dismantle all the “unconstitutional/un-American” anti-terrorism apparatuses that Bush had built and put in place is now basking in the glory of a victory largely due to those very same apparatuses. Moreover, what does it say about the capability and professionalism of an administration that cannot present to the American people (and the world) a coherent, consistent and accurate account of one of the most important covert operations of our time?
@ john lennon: sigh. Can you loony lefties just come up with a short hand for your favorite 'flight suit Mission Accomplished' tripe? Just type 'FS:MA' or something and then I won't have to be bothered to read the hack idiocy that you seem to think is somehow original and decisively argument ending. For being 'progressives' you sure spend a great deal of time living in the past...
"The guy who got him" actually was a Navy SEAL, who shall remain nameless (we hope). Kudos to President Obama for ordering the kill. Apparently he agonized over it, but did order the kill. Credit where credit is due, there.
However, there was no reason to start blabbing about what was found in the compound. We could have kept silent and issued a very brief statement about Osama's death - instead, there has been a plethora of anonymous (and contradictory) statements about the events that occurred and the materials/intel seized. I think silence and a less sieve-like verbal response would have been preferable and might, indeed, have provided us with some valuable insight.
I am also concerned about how we will protect ourselves in the future if our leaders have no understanding of how such intel is gathered in the real world.
Jonah, though I'm no fan of the Obama administration, I think your argument is fairly weak here. In this day and age of warp speed communication of facebook, twitter, etc, the magnitude of an operation to nail OBL does not lend itself to be kept hidden for long. Remember: some Pakistanis inadvertently and unknowingly might have tweeted about the on-going SEALs-led raid. And as some commentators have pointed out, there's the matter of the wreckage of the classified helo. If the President had not made the announcement as he did, the news surely would have dripped out, and the US would be forced to react to the news, instead of acting. Being active is almost always preferable to reactive.
Secondly the assumption that by keeping the raid secret the US intelligence might gain more advantage over Al Qeada is simply unproven. Given the fact that OBL had the capability to watch himself on satellite TV, one cannot assume that other AQ headmasters would not learn about his death before long if the President had not rushed to make the news.
One can criticize the President for being a hypocrite for admonishing people not "spiking the ball," and yet he went on a celebratory tour, and had his acolytes going on TV, saying how he personally planned the raid (increase the size the raid force, shoot their way out, how many helos to be used, etc) to the point of ridiculousness. And one can certainly be very critical of the administration's handling of the dumping the body to the sea in a hush-hush manner, with no transparency, complete opposite to the leaking like a sieve about the raid.
Personally I have no problem with the President's personal gloating and political exploit of the raid. He took a chance when given less than solid intel, and nailed the dude. While president Bush, longed to be known as wartime president, failed when given similar, less than solid intel in the Tora Bora episode, and spent the rest of his presidency desperately trying to make up for that flub with no success.
Obama bragged so he could get the bounce. He doesn't care if any of the intel is actionable, in fact he would prefer to avoid it, because the Middle East gets upset when we take action. And also when we don't.
I wish self-defense, like charity, began at home. We have only 44% operational control of our southern border. We don't need a moat with alligators in it, and a fence wouldn't be perfect, but it's unconscionable that the POTUS has ceded control of US territory to narco-terrorists. If he thinks it's so safe, let him vacation there with the family, in one of the national parks with a sign warning US citizens that it's dangerous.
First: Al'Queida would know with in 24 hours that OBL was taken out by us. Either from their Allies in the Pakistany government or from one of their own who probably lived in the town or area and would check on the compound. Also its not like people in the town would not talk about the midnight raid. The area where we found him was too populated to think otherwise.
Two: IF they know we have him they would know we have his hard drives and all that, because why would we kill him but not take them? SO they would begin scrambling to change plans any way.
If we had taken him somewhere far from civ, we could have tried bombing the place after the raid and pretended like we did not know what we had done via a drone strike (kind of Tom Clancyish). Which maybe they would buy. Then we can take some time to go through the info and act on it.
But, this is not the case. If we killed him where and how we did, we might as well tell everyone 24h later any way because all the bad guys already know by then. Keeping it hidden longer only fuels conspiracy theories and denialists. Also siting on the info and releasing it later would mean the President might be accused of trying to keep this as a political "Ace up the sleeve".
This Kiss-and-tell urge is very American rather than specifically "Obamanesque."
Intimate details of recent secret military operations are often discussed in national TV. Cable TV frequently show military personnel discussing the latest technology in detail, even of that in development. Magazines like Popular Mechanics frequently show the latest US military advancements, with photos and draft drawings of new systems, technology, aircrafts or warships. Military personnel discuss details of special forces training in TV--the entire basic training of our special forces is on the Military Channel for our entertainment.
On the internet, we volunteer even more. A 15 minutes search can get you photos from all angles of the latest Navy ship, together with the name and address of its commanding officer.
When was the last time you saw a Chinese fighter pilot on TV showing you the details, capabilities and limitations of the latest chinese fighter plane? Also, do you really need to know the range and payload capacity of the not yet deployed F-35, or to see its internal components diagram? Lets keep telling and be amused, our enemies will keep watching.
Actually, POTUS 43 earned his flight wings in the Texas ANG. He earned more of a right to wear flight skins than BHO has a right to play hoops with NBA stars. At least he actually served in the armed forces. BHO only uses the military as an election campaign prop--much like the Clinton Administration treated military staffers like step-n-fetch-its.
Remember the old saying it's better to say nothing and let people think you're foolish than to open your mouth and remove all doubt. There is a long distance between thinking you know and knowing. So letting the Al Queda and the Pakistanis stew for a while wouldn't have hurt. It also would have given the Adminstration time to get the narrative lined up with the facts.
The article isn't about Bush, or what comes next in Afghanistan, or the fact that the mission was successful in killing Bin Laden-as much as the lefties want to change the subject. Jonah's point is spot on, that when it comes to Intel, the less said the better. Nobody had to know the seals retrieved computer hard drives and other goodies, at least not immediately. The case could be made that nobody had to know Bin Laden was dead for a day or so...perhaps we could have found other high value targets still sleeping that morning if we found actionable intel on where they were currently located. Intelligence-wise, there was no value in warning Al-Quaida we had Bin Laden and valuable information.
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