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A Russian Rift
If we think our 2012 election will offer a stark choice, it’s nothing compared to Russia’s.

By Paul Gregory


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President Medvedev chose the futuristic Skolkovo Business School campus outside of Moscow for his first-ever televised question-and-answer session last Wednesday. He was greeted by applause from the eight hundred journalists in attendance. They were hoping for the announcement. It did not come, but Medvedev did not pass up the opportunity to indirectly advance the case that he should be reelected president in 2012. Putin’s camp was less subtle. Over the weekend, “sources close to Putin” disclosed that he intended to run in the 2012 presidential election.

Over the past half year, Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin have “announced” competing platforms for the presidential “campaign.” It’s a bit different from an American political campaign. Russia’s 2012 presidential election will be resolved behind closed doors in a byzantine process that no outsider can understand. There will emerge one candidate, who will run against token opposition, and who will be Russia’s president for the next four years.

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Neither Medvedev nor Putin has declared his candidacy or openly presented his political platform. Both instead use imagery, veiled language, and other indirect communications with the public, their supporters and their opponents alike. Both Putin and Medvedev transmit symbolic messages. Putin pilots helicopters, treks through rugged terrain, hurls judo opponents to the floor, and generally shows that he is a tough guy despite his Napoleonic height. Medvedev wears business suits, travels to Silicon Valley, and speaks in lawyerly tones about the rule of law and increasing foreign investment. In one respect, though, Medvedev has become rather brazen: He has taken to wearing a bomber jacket emblazoned with the words “Russia’s Commander-in-Chief.” Among the commander-in-chief’s powers is the power to fire the prime minister.

The two men’s choices of medium reflect their different constituencies. Putin uses (quasi-state-run) television to address older and less-educated voters. His messages are directed at political appointees, state employees, state security officers, and even right-wing skinheads. Medvedev tweets on the Internet to a young and educated computer generation. Putin reminds pensioners that he has increased their pensions. Medvedev tells young and ambitious Russians that he will help them compete in the world of high tech.

As the day of decision draws closer, the competition between the two is becoming increasingly open and frank. Although Putin and Medvedev supposedly run Russia as a “tandem” of like minds, the visions of Russia’s future that they have spelled out are remarkably different. If we think that our 2012 election offers voters a stark choice, the Putin-Medvedev platforms give Russian voters an even starker choice.

On the economy:

Putin, who as prime minister is responsible for the economy, expresses pride that Russia “successfully avoided serious shocks that could have weakened the country and undermined its economic and human potential.” He declares that the huge drop in output and meager recovery (despite high oil prices) would have been much worse without his steady hand. Russia’s economic success (or lack of a worse disaster) is the result of his renationalization program, which has produced successful “public-private partnerships.” Russia’s future lies with giant state companies like Gazprom, Rosneft, and Transneft. Putin avoids mention of privatization. His contribution was returning to the state private companies that had fallen into the wrong hands (such as the Yukos oil company and Mikhail Khodorkovsky).

Medvedev describes the Russian economy as weak and atrophied. He warns: “Until we make our country attractive for business and private initiative, we will not achieve our main goal of improving the quality of life for our people.” The Russian economy is suffering because there is no rule of law, bureaucratic intervention stifles business, and corruption is rampant. Medvedev believes that state corporations exert too great an influence on the investment climate. Russia should have more privatization and private entrepreneurial activity, not more state ownership and control.

On corruption and conflicts of interest:

Putin avoids mention of corruption, other than obligatory remarks in passing, for good reason: He is personally corrupt. That he cannot mention corruption, although Russians clearly understand its pervasiveness, is a clear sign of weakness. For Putin, there is no state corruption. The state must help Russian business, and the government officials who run Russia must be rewarded. There is nothing wrong with government officials serving as chief executives of the companies they regulate. It is only natural that they should become rich. After all, they are the ones making this wealth happen. This is not really corruption but state capitalism.

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COMMENTS   9

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   05/23/11 07:44

Correction: Russia presidents are elected for 6-year terms.

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   05/23/11 09:04

Even if Medvedev doesn't keep his promises, his ideas still sounds better then anyone on either side of the aisle for our 2012 election.

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   05/23/11 09:36

Medvedev is trying to shake the sock puppet imagine he had when put in the presidency by Putin but he is really not much better. He talks a better game but I doubt almost anything would really change. Maybe, maybe there would be a slight improvement in business culture and rule of law but that is about it. Still seeing Putin ousted by his "sock puppet" would be a nice to watch even if Russia didn't really become any better.

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Occasional Reader
   05/23/11 11:26

Paul, probably you don't know, but Russian presidency law changed more than 2 years ago. Next Russian president will hold his post not 4 but 6 years (or 12 if he will run for next two terms).

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   05/23/11 15:14

OK -- assuming this is not some sort of Ruskie Kabuki, how long before Medvedev is slipped a polonium cocktail?

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svartur
   05/23/11 16:56

I am a "born and raised" American living in Russia since 1997. The number of people that care and pay attention to politics here is a very, very small number.

Those that do pay attention knew what was going to happen 4 years ago: (1) Putin was banned from running again, so he names his partner Medvedev to be the next president. The FSB, money and complete control of the press makes his winning a certainty. (2) Medvedev quickly has the constitution changed so that the presidential term is now six years. (3) Before the end of his term, Medvedev announces that he will not be seeking re-election, instead choosing to head up a new commission or think-tank aimed at further transforming Russia for the futuer (4) Putin will step into the void and run for president again...where he will serve for the next 12 years.

Everyone knows Putin will be in power for the Winter Olympics in Sochi in 2014 and for the world cup in 2018. By 2024, Putin will have been president of Russia for 24 years. All this "in-fighting between Putin and Medvedev is just a show.

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   05/23/11 20:57

In America, when we say, "Candidate X will never survive the primaries", we mean he is likely to be defeated by a stronger candidate, or by the hostile media.

When Vladimir Putin says it, it has an entirely different meaning. Good luck Mr. Medvedev.

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   05/24/11 09:43

@16:56

My Russian language teacher in college (she is American) also commented on the difficulty in getting Russians in Russia to talk national politics.

She wasn't sure why this was, but found it exasperating. I think it is a latent fatalism installed in the psyche over the centuries. What is the point in discussing something you have no power over?

Americans, being of a different bent, are eager to discuss anything. We are afflicted with the opposite of fatalism.

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Anton Philidor
   05/25/11 13:17

Is this a competition or a team?

Each says what a significant constituency wants to hear. They follow Putin's (inferred) plan when he selected Medvedev and exchange jobs every few years, remaining in office.

Why conclude there's a dispute?

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