A likable former governor and TV personality; a two-term governor with an unmatched fiscal record; another former governor with the best education-reform credentials in the country; a rising star in the House; and a photogenic senator from the heartland.
They are Mike Huckabee, Mitch Daniels, Jeb Bush, Mike Pence, and John Thune. The Republicans sitting out the 2012 nomination battle would themselves make a formidable field. Indeed, more formidable than the actual entrants. The hottest place to be in Republican politics right now is sitting on the sidelines.
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With Governor Daniels deciding over the weekend not to run, it is slowly dawning on the Republican mind that the party’s choice may effectively come down to Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty. This prospect produces a range of emotions running from disappointment to panic.
Former Massachusetts governor Romney is next in line, an advantageous place to be in a party that traditionally chooses its candidates like the guy behind the counter in a deli — take a number and wait. If Romney wins the nomination, it will probably be a victory in the tradition of GOP front-runners Bob Dole and John McCain, who got the party’s nod out of sheer reflex or the lack of more appealing choices.
Former Minnesota governor Pawlenty makes sense on paper. He compiled a conservative record as governor of a Democratic state, and he comes from the upper Midwest, an area where Republicans have growth potential. But nominations aren’t won on paper. Pawlenty will have to energize GOP voters without being too obviously false to his mild-mannered persona.
Jon Huntsman is the other candidate with credentials usually associated with a presidential nominee — former governor and former ambassador. He was President Obama’s ambassador to China, though, and he spent much of his Utah governorship lecturing the party to be less conservative on fashionable issues such as the environment and gay rights. That he is now being mentioned as a top-tier candidate is commentary on the weakness of that tier.
Minnesota representative Michele Bachmann will probably run and generate excitement in Howard Dean style as the candidate of “the conservative wing of the Republican party.” Like another compelling grassroots candidate, Pat Buchanan, she’s more likely to be a glorious cause than an eventual nominee. Herman Cain is a big, appealing personality but has never held elective office. Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum lost his job by 18 points in 2006. Newt Gingrich is running around his launching pad in a flame-retardant suit trying to douse the fire.
Which is why the party turns its lonely eyes to New Jersey governor Chris Christie and Wisconsin representative Paul Ryan. Christie has grappled with his state’s fiscal problems with brio. He’s fresh and unconventional, at a time of exhaustion with politics as usual. Yet the moment he even dips his toe in the presidential waters, his standing will decline among New Jersey voters, who will feel jilted. If he makes the plunge, he’d be staking his career on a late entrance and victory in New Hampshire, where there’s no guarantee he’d sell the way he does in the Garden State.
Among the crop of candidates and potential candidates, Ryan has the profile most similar to that of the Barack Obama of 2007 as he prepared to take his party by storm. Ryan, too, is an implausible candidate; no one has won the presidency from the House since 1880. He, too, is young, talented and winsome, and captures something important in the zeitgeist of his party. But he just ascended to the Budget Committee chairmanship, from which he is already defining the national debate. There’s one quality that unites all the declared or likely candidates so far: They have nothing to lose.
Every nomination fight produces surprises and dark horses, a John McCain in 2000, a Mike Huckabee in 2008. As their field emerges into the cold light of day, Republicans are desperate to be surprised.
Michele Bachmann is going to win the nomination and beat Obama in a landslide. She's smart, conservative, wholesome, articulate, and attractive. Plus, having raised 23 foster kids, she's got a human interest story that will be very appealing.
If Christie is the alternative, 2012 will be remembered as the year the GOP stood on the doorstep of history, pulled out a shotgun, and blasted away both feet.
Stop with all this Christie nonsense. This guy is about as conservative as Scott Brown. Paul Ryan is our last best hope. He must be enlisted to run, and soon..
There is another " Lone Ranger " out there that the media, especially the Liberal media do not give much coverage. His name is Rick Perry , a third term governor of Texas with a bonafied military backround. Where George W. flew to land on an aircraft carrier, this warrior flew actual combat missions over Iraq. He has presided over the best economy in the nation with an ax to grind with the EPA. He clearly doesn't like Obama and their campaign would be like a 15 round heavy weight fight. This is who conservatives should be drafting. This is the fight the media should also want. This is a confrontation that Obama fears.
I'm beginning to think that our best hope is just to get someone, anyone, to beat Obama, retain or improve the majority in the House and take over the Senate. Even if the President is not all we'd like, a Congress filled with Marco Rubios, and with majorities big enough to override Presidential vetoes, could help to put the legislative branch, the branch closest to the people, back in its rightful place as the driver of the country.
You're channeling your own emotions too much. Plenty of people are satisfied with the field, and more would be if Palin jumped in. Pence? Thune? Come on - these are not big name conservatives.
Note also that the Democratic field in 2008 was thin - only three major candidates, all with flaws, especially the eventual nominee / president. Same with the GOP in 2000. Deep fields are often a sign of weakness; see the Democrats in 1988, the GOP in 2008, etc.
If Chris Christie runs, he gets the nomination. Roger Ailes will make sure of that. External Link But he'd have to beat Obama on his own, which might be difficult since he can't carry his own state.
The GOP has nothing to complain about...both Romney and Pawlenty are solid candidates with good fiscal records. They both held down spending below the rate of inflation during their terms in office.
Exactly what field was superior - Bush (the man who went on to nearly double the size of government during his tenure) and McCain in 2000, Dole, Forbes and Buchanan in 1996, George H.W. Bush, and Dole in 1988?
Seriously, Romney and Pawlenty are way better choices.
Looks like the only ones who will be surprised are the commentariat. You gave one sentence to the candidate who is leading the pack in Zogby right now, despite little fund-raising and no ground game to date.
"If Christie is the alternative, 2012 will be remembered as the year the GOP stood on the doorstep of history, pulled out a shotgun, and blasted away both feet."
Well said. And I'm a big fan of Christie's fiscal honesty.
Remeber, only one candidate will be elected President. So what if the field is thin? In my opinion, that makes it easier to pick the right one. Don't give up hope! This election cycle has yet to even rev up. We (myself included) are slobering all over ourselves to win back the WH. Plenty of time to vet, plenty of time to plan, and plenty of time to articulate positions. PLEASE don't settle for "electable." That has failure stamped all over it. Vote principles, and we will storm 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Pawlenty doesn't just make sense on paper, he just makes sense PERIOD. Everyone wants a "hero" but what we need is a respectable candidate that can make the race about BHO in the eyes of the voting middle of ind/cons Dems and put blue/purple states in play. It's that simple, and the only peril is that we are trying to hard. I don't think Pawlenty is the best speaker, but I don't live in the Mid West where he won TWICE and Daniels is popular too. Analyzing over-he is a Winner. We need to keep in play MN, WI, OH, PA, IN, MO, IA (all Mid West) and FL, VA, NC and CO (remember, on game day this all about the Electoral College).
It is unlikely Christie or Palin runs and Bachman and Cain simply cannot win, as much as we all may like them. But we don't need a "hero" we need an Electoral College WINNER.
I think Herman Cain's lack of Washington experience is a big plus. He HAS run large corporations. I think he is a breath of fresh air and compelling. I wasn't too keen on him until I saw him in the first debate - he was dynamite.
That being said, I'd be OK voting for Pawlenty. He did a great job as Governor.
I don't know about Michelle Bachmann... she seems to have more courage than most of the GOP field in terms of speaking the truth, etc. But could she get elected? As for Romney - I hope he doesn't get the nomination, because I would have to hold my nose to vote for him in the general election.
Why all the hand-wringing and cold sweats? Romney or Pawlenty would both be fine candidates. If unemployment is still above 8% in 2012, even John McCain could win, or Bob Dole, for that matter!
Whether its Barack Obama, or any of the mentioned Republicans, I can only cry out, "Is this the best we have to lead our country, when great leadership is needed the most?"
The real weakness is in the "conservative" punditry who can find nothing to write about except how thin they find the candidate pool. Unfortunately, they are getting this trope from the MSM who are repeating it as a generic anti-opposition position to support obama.
I know not what course others may take, but as for me? I ain't gonna waste my time reading another single piece lamenting the fact that 18 months before the election the Republicans still don't have a dominant and glamorous candidate.
I could not disagree with this article more. The GOP is fortunate that the five potential candidates that Mr. Lowry mentions have chosen not to run in 2012.
Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee are both unelectable.
Jeb Bush is an open-borders enthusiast who was an otherwise successful Florida governor, but is the son and brother of two of the three worst Republican presidents in American history. The American people will not accept a third president Bush.
Mike Huckabee cannot attract votes in a national election other than Evangelical Christians. He played the spoiler role in 2008 by drawing away conservative voters who would have otherwise voted for Mitt Romney in the Republican primaries. Consequently, Mike Huckabee is responsible for giving us John McCain as our 2008 presidential nominee, and played a major role in electing President Obama in the national election.
As for Senator Thune and Congressman Pence, they both seem like good men but I don't see how either of them are superior to the people who are already in the 2012 GOP nomination race. We don't need additional candidates in an already crowded field who bring nothing new to the table.
Lastly, Governor Daniels' heart was clearly not in running for president in 2012. That is completely understandable from his standpoint because of the personal toll this campaign will take; but the conservative movement will suffer greatly if we rally around someone who has no appetite to lead a political movement.
The bottom line is that former governors Pawlenty and Romney, and Congresswoman Bachmann are all credible candidates. I think I know enough about Mitt Romney to make an informed choice about him. I want to know more about Tim Pawlenty and Michelle Bachmann.
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