House Majority Leader Eric Cantor turned the policy temperature down on austerity this week by rolling out a strong economic-growth agenda. Headlined by a 25 percent top tax rate for individuals and business, the Cantor package includes regulatory relief, free trade, and patent protection for entrepreneurs. It’s job creation and the economy, stupid.
Sounds Reaganesque? Well, Eric Cantor has a lot of Reagan blood in him. Back in 1980, while Cantor was still in high school, his father was the Virginia state treasurer of the Ronald Reagan presidential campaign. So the apple never falls far from the tree.
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In fact, it looks like Cantor is restoring the supply-side incentive model of economic growth. Forget tax-the-rich class warfare. Throw out wild-eyed government-spending stimulus and dollar-depreciating Fed money-pumping. Make it pay more after tax to work, produce, and invest. Go for a growth spurt, something the economy badly needs. And — my thought — crown such a growth strategy with a stable King Dollar re-linked to gold.
When I interviewed Cantor this week, he made it clear that faster economic growth was crucial to holding down spending, deficits, and debt. As scored by the CBO, every 1 percent of faster growth lowers the budget gap by nearly $3 trillion from lower spending and higher revenues. “Grow the economy,” Cantor said. “It will help us manage-down the deficit and it will help get people back to work.”
This is not to say that spending cuts and structural entitlement reforms aren’t necessary. They are. But it is to argue that lately the GOP has forgotten the growth component that is so essential to spending restraint and deficit reduction.
The GOP should say: In return for substantial federal-spending cuts, we’re gonna more than make it up to you with large tax cuts. You will win. Big government will lose.
I suggested to Cantor that the GOP adopt a 5 percent national growth target, which President John F. Kennedy had when he launched his across-the-board tax cuts in the early 1960s. “That is a fantastic goal,” he told me.
Cantor’s growth plan is very timely as the U.S. economy is once again sputtering. In what is already one of the weakest post-recession recoveries in the postwar era, first-quarter GDP came in at a tepid 1.8 percent. Many economists believe the second quarter will be no better.
And consider this: Between 1947 and 2000, average real economic growth registered 3.4 percent yearly — an excellent prosperity baseline. Yet over the past ten years — amidst boom-bust Fed policy, a collapsing dollar, and soaring gold — the stock market on balance hasn’t moved as the economy has averaged only 1.7 percent annually. Because of the ongoing slump, actual real GDP growth from the early 2000s through the first quarter of 2011 has dropped nearly 17 percent below the long-run historical trend. That translates to a massive output gap of $2.7 trillion.
In order to close that gap in five years the economy would have to grow 7.3 percent annually (roughly Reagan’s two-year recovery rate in 1983-84). To close the gap in ten years, the economy would have to grow near 5.3 percent annually.
Alright, so why not establish a national economic growth target of over 5 percent? That might wipe out the current spirit of economic pessimism and decline.
A 5 percent growth target might give some hope to the roughly 15 million unemployed. Or the 12 to 15 million homeowners who can’t meet their mortgages, are in foreclosure, or have upside-down property values. Or the disappointed investors who haven’t made any real cash in ten years. Or the families who are suffering from rising gas and food prices.
A 5 percent growth target might wipe out the sense that we can’t seem to right the economic ship.
For all these reasons, according to the polls, jobs and the economy are the number one political issue today. Entitlements are going to have to be fixed. But that day of reckoning is nearly 20 years away. Right now folks want work and income to pay the bills.
The brilliance of Mr. Cantor’s effort is his attempt to move the GOP back to the economic-growth high ground. It is our most urgent priority.
– Larry Kudlow, NRO’s Economics Editor, is host of CNBC’sThe Kudlow Report and author of the daily web blog, Kudlow’s Money Politic$.
I have to say, I really don't understand this column.
Instead of adopting a 5 pct growth target, why not 10 pct, or 15 pct? Central Planners can adopt any target they want, no matter how devoid of reality. Isn't that part of our budgetary problem now? Budgets that assume growth and revenue targets and performance that are based on bureaucratic ivory tower fantasies so as to justify programs and spending.
Indeed, I ask, why adopt a growth target at all? Why not just do those things that are good economics, if there is such a thing. If we are doing the correct things in terms of policy and practice, the growth rate will take care of itself. Adopting a target growth rate inevitably will lead to policies to achieve that rate, whether they make any sense or not.
"Entitlements are going to have to be fixed. But that day of reckoning is nearly 20 years away."
With all due respect, that sounds like Harry "Pinky" Reid's idiocy. The "day of reckoning" is here, now. Medicare "trust fund" dead broke in 5-10 years and in heavy deficit now. Social Security right now paying out more in benefits that it takes in in SS taxes, which means the Treasury must sell more bonds to the Fed. The Boomer wave is now hitting both SS and Medicare.
With all due respect, sometimes I wonder what planet Mr. Kudlow is on.
That we have to grow our way out of the current mess is beyond debate, but the statement that we have 20 years to fix the entitlement mess doesn't ring true with the latest projections.
Unless any "pro growth" agenda kicks into gear quickly against the "revenue enhancement" demagoguery of the spendthrift in chief and his party, and the ever more entangling regulatory and health care tsunami that's already in progress, the fix will be in that the nation will be putting a fork into Medicare and Medicaid before the end of this decade.
Cantor and Kudlow are on planet reality. The American people are not going to give up their guns, their Medicare or Social Security.
Only way out of this mess is to grow. Prayer that we will get out of this mess by cutting is not a strategy. It just won't work, as anyone who tries to cut will be unelectable. The only solution is to grow.
It's almost comical. Yes, slash federal gov't spending which means jobs and money to people and cut taxes for the rich by about 1/3. That's fair. That'll be really popular.
Are you nuts?
And rich people sock away most of their money how is it going to grow a mature economy 5%? It's ludicrous.
Thanks for the advice Larry. Economic growth however large in the 80s did not come close to ending the budget deficit. Tax cuts in the 2000s did not result in economic growth above the level of anemic ( something Larry now admits; what of 'the Bush Boom' sir?) and the deficit exploded.
But it's delightful to get another communiqué from the Voodoo Economic Universe, where the laws of arithmetic are totally unfathomable to our minds here.
Why not cut the top tax rate to 15%? Then we could get 10-15% growth. Or just cut them to 5% and we'd get 25-30% growth, right?
Bush cut taxes, even on the rich people (where it really matters as they are so superior all their money creates magic growth) and we still haven't gotten back to 2000 level tax receipts even with inflation since then.
Maybe we should spread this news to Greece? Here they've been cutting spending and raising taxes...just cut taxes to zero and growth will take care of eerythng.
I think the American people would be thrilled to hear that the rich are getting a big tax cut (1/3!) and it will eventually trickle down to them. They might be able to land a job as a landscaper or a toilet cleaner in one of the rich's many mansions! Sweet!
wake up folks, without importing our industries from overseas that make things and employ people, we are destined to failure. If we cannot go back to where we make things in this country, we will not solve this problem. How can it be so hard to understand this people?