With a flamboyant downgrade of the outlook for economic growth, jobs, and profits, Wednesday’s 280 point Dow plunge to launch the so-called June stock swoon is a warning shot across the bow.
The Dow tanked alongside a batch of dismal economic data. The ISM manufacturing index, ADP employment, Case-Shiller home prices, and consumer confidence are all pointing to 2 percent growth or less, rather than the kind of 5 percent growth we ought to be getting coming out of a deep recession.
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The economy now looks like a Government Motors engine that’s stalling out. Or perhaps, with energy and food inflation, and housing deflation at the same time, the economy is acting like a pinball machine on permanent tilt.
There’s a key message here: Big-government stimulus never works.
First there was the massive Obama stimulus spending. Then QE1. And now QE2 is winding down. And what did we get for all this? Slower growth overall, paltry job creation, more energy and commodities inflation, continued housing deflation, and virtually no new business start-up entrepreneurship.
We know the Obama spending package failed to create a 7 to 8 percent unemployment rate, as advertised. And now we’re learning that the Fed’s QE2 has actually done more harm than good.
All that money-printing stimulus worked to depreciate the dollar and jack-up commodity prices, especially oil and gasoline, but also food. So both companies and consumers have been punished.
Some demand-side boneheads on Wall Street want the Fed to move to QE3, allegedly to fight a stalling economy. But if the central bank prints another $600 billion or so, all that will do is sink the greenback another 10 percent and drive oil and gasoline prices higher and higher. And that, in turn, will slow business and consumers even more.
The Japanese disaster is undoubtedly playing a role in the manufacturing slump — probably a bigger role than most economists predicted. Production supplies are scarce or non-existent, especially for autos and electronics, but also for many other sectors of the economy.
Then, of course, there’s all the bad weather: Hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods have depressed all kinds of economic activity here at home.
There also are jitters about the ongoing saga in Greece. The potential for a Greek bond default and various credit-agency downgrades are taking a toll on stock markets around the world.
But this whole boom-and-bust monetary policy, with its blatant disregard for King Dollar, is a snare and a delusion. Stabilize the greenback by linking it to gold. Then move to the supply-side: Slash individual and business tax burdens, roll back enormous regulatory costs, and stop the merciless threat of higher future taxes.
If there was a serious pro-growth movement in Washington to accelerate tax-reform overhaul and pin-back regulatory barriers like the NLRB war with Boeing, the EPA war against energy, and the Obamacare threats that are too numerous to count, that just might revive the animal spirits. But what we know for sure is that small businesses are barely hiring today, and that brand new startups are few and far between.
What’s lacking here is confidence.
No, we’re not going into a double-dip recession. The most important indicator is the Treasury yield curve, which is still very steeply sloped. And businesses are profitable. Those profits have been the backbone of what little growth we’ve had in the last two years. And they’re the mother’s milk of the stock market.
But the point is, without real growth policies, there’s not much to cheer about in the market or the economy. We’re muddling along. It could even be called a growth recession.
Wednesday’s 280-point Dow drop is cry for help. Is anybody listening?
– Larry Kudlow, NRO’s Economics Editor, is host of CNBC’sThe Kudlow Report and author of the daily web blog, Kudlow’s Money Politic$.
Mr. Kudlow, you are so rational even still, it is surprising and alarming at this point.
This administration has no interest in growing the economy and fixing the situation, it is working very feverishly to collapse the whole system and global economy. The entire Middle East chaos will simply grow to more countries and get worse. Europe is on a tight rope, where some currencies are surely going to fail, such as Greece. Our gas prices will get worse intentionally, as will our food, starving purchasing of goods in other sectors.
Obama has no interest in solving, he is doing all of the damage. Very well I might add.
Galactically dumb idea. Gold is in a bubble. It would not stabilize anything to follow the gyrations it is going to go through over the next five years. For that matter, suppose it just stays on its trend of the last 2-3 years. Want 30% annual deflation continually?
Didn't think so.
BTW, the main factor moving the market was not the US econ reports; they just came out the same day. It was Greece.
That is why European banks fell twice as much as the broad market, and US banks led the way down, much more than cyclicals. And why the 10 year broke 3% heading down not up.
It is fears of deflation, not inflation, driving it - fueled by reckless calls for another epic default, which would set off a Lehman like scramble to avoid having any counterparty anywhere, all over again.
Politicians need to stop tossing around flip proposals to stick banks with another $250 billion in credit losses, and instead get serious about both cutting useless government spending, and pro growth and pro finance policies. Instead they are falling all over themselves to look more populist, pro entitlement, and anti banker. That way lies poverty.
Okay, so we've again seen that stimulus spending on turtle trail bridges and rennovating seldom used rural Canadian border crossing stations for $2 million each doesn't jumpstart the economy.
Now, can we build a giant "laser" that can engrave the words "LET MARKETS CORRECT THEMSELVES` on the moon so we are constantly reminded of this?
Yes, JasonC I saw that gold comment myself and went - what? I think more appropriately we need a currency which is managed to maintain its value as opposed to also being worried about employment. This duel responsibility of the Fed is skewing what should be its only priority - maintaining sound money. Money is only a tool.
However, I believe the recent drops were not Greece - everyone knows Greece is a basket case, and everyone knows that the debt ceiling doesn't mean all that much in the big scheme of things. The problem is that all the rosy expectations about the economy are slowly being proved wrong. The Obama adminstration's actions have harmed our recovery, not enabled it, and while a number of things have buoyed the market - liquidity for banks and good corporate profits being amongst the biggest - increasingly we are seeing things that point to lower than expected growth and a political crisis on how to deal with that reality. One major party is in complete denial about what we face; the other, not sure really how to present its concerns and also dealing with its own cadre of professional politicians who apparently couldn't care less.
The increasingly obviously recognized parasitic relationship between our financial industry and the federal government is being exposed. TARP protected this relationship because its implosion would have done irreparable harm to our country, but between that and the subsequent financial sector regulations, we have seen a consolidation of the power and players in this relationship, but also an unwillingness to deal with the reasons that required TARP to occur. Its the relationship itself that is the problem.
And at its core it is our fault for electing politicians who buy us things instead of acting as good stewards for our country. The market is digesting that big time now - you cannot hide that from the country, and it now seems obvious.
Eddie Munster: There were no tax cuts in the stimulus package. There were changes to the witholding tables, but the total amount of taxes owed did not change.
When will liberals stop lying about things that can be so easily checked?