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Paul Krugman: The Prophet of Socialism
A prophet who has been consistently wrong.

By Donald Luskin


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Editor’s Note: This article is excerpted from Donald Luskin’s new book, I Am John Galt.

Christiane Amanpour’s eyes darted back and forth in fear, and her mouth twisted in disgust, because she could see where this was going. A guest on her Sunday-morning political talk show, ABC’s This Week, was getting dangerously overexcited, and something very regrettable was about to happen.

She could see that he was winding himself up as he talked about how a recent deficit-reduction panel hadn’t been “brave enough” — because it failed to endorse the idea of expert panels that would determine what medical services government-funded care wouldn’t pay for. When Obamacare was still being debated in Congress, Sarah Palin had created a media sensation by calling them “death panels,” causing most liberals who supported Obamacare to quickly distance themselves from any idea of rationing care as being tantamount to murder.

Cut to Amanpour’s horrified face. Cut back to the guest. Then it happened.

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The guest said, “Some years down the pike, we’re going to get the real solution, which is going to be a combination of death panels and sales taxes.”

It was all the more horrifying because the guest was not a conservative, not an opponent of Obamacare. This guest was an avid liberal, a partisan Democrat, and an enthusiastic supporter of government-run health care. He was endorsing death panels, not warning about them. He was saying death panels are a good thing. And it was even more horrifying because of who this guest was. This was no fringe lefty wearing a tinfoil hat, churning out underground newspapers in his parents’ basement. This was an economics professor at Princeton, one of the country’s most prestigious universities. This was the winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, the highest honor the profession can bestow. This was a columnist for the New York Times, the most influential newspaper in the world. This was Paul Krugman, live, on national television, endorsing government control over life and death. And while we’re at it, let’s raise taxes on those who are permitted to live.

Who exactly does Paul Krugman think he is? He’d like to think he’s John Maynard Keynes, the venerated British economist who created the intellectual framework for modern government intervention in the economy. Keynes is something of a cult figure for modern liberal economists like Krugman, who read his texts with exegetical fervor. But Krugman will never live up to Keynes. However politicized his economic theories, Keynes’s predictions were so astute that he made himself wealthy as a speculator. Economics is called “the dismal science,” but as we’ll see, Krugman’s predictions are so laughably bad his economics should be called the abysmal pseudo-science.

Most critiques of Krugman as a public intellectual begin with what is apparently an obligatory disclaimer, usually in the very first sentence — something to the effect that Krugman is a very accomplished and well-respected economist. Then comes the “But . . .” and the critique proceeds in earnest, often scathingly.

But why concede this honor to Krugman? So what if he won the Nobel Prize? The real test of Krugman’s mettle as an economist is the accuracy of his economic forecasting. The fact is that, with about three decades of evidence now in, Krugman’s track record, to use a technical term favored by economists, sucks.

He’s not always candid about this. But once, under the pressure of a televised debate with conservative talk-show host Bill O’Reilly, Krugman blurted out an understated if truthful self-evaluation: “Compare me . . . compare me, uh, with anyone else, and I think you’ll see that my forecasting record is not great.”

The most egregious example of “not great” is Krugman’s utterly incorrect 1982 prediction that inflation would soar. He made this prediction from no less lofty a perch than the White House, as staff member of the Council of Economic Advisers in the first Reagan administration. In a memo titled “The Inflation Time Bomb” Krugman wrote with co-author Lawrence Summers, “We believe that it is reasonable to expect a significant reacceleration of inflation . . . at least 5 percentage points to future increases in consumer prices. . . . This estimate is conservative.”

It also turned out to be hilariously, side-splittingly, knee-slappingly, rolling-on-the-floor wrong. Except for a tiny uptick the very next month, inflation didn’t rise; it fell. Four years later, it had fallen to 1.18 percent, a rate so low as to border on deflation.

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COMMENTS   45

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   06/13/11 05:31

I still remember Krugman's sweaty face, beady eyed behavior when he appeared on Bill O'Reilly's program and Mr. O'Reilly proceeded to take him apart for some prevarication of which he was guilty. The man is a weasel.

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richbarnett
   06/13/11 06:02

Krugman is a political shill and a piker. And, he knows it.

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Manbearpig5
   06/13/11 07:02

One correction for this article. Mr.Luskin states:

"This was the winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, the highest honor the profession can bestow."

The Nobel Prize is not the highest honor the profession can bestow. It is the highest honor liberals can bestow on themselves.

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   06/13/11 07:07

Krugman is not a stock picker. Besides, don't you have any recent Krugman errors to report? Perhaps something like this, which a seer named Donald Luskin wrote in August 2008:

"If we're not in recession, and if we're not even close to going into recession, and at the same time the people who falsely say we are in recession are being hailed as prophets, then what does one do?

There's a formula for that even simpler than Leamer's: You buy stocks.

With all the pessimism out there and with reality nowhere near as bad as the pessimistic majority seems to believe how can stocks not be a bargain?"

External Link 

Luskin's Law: Recessions cannot occur during Republican administrations.

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   06/13/11 11:05

This is a silly comment.

The financial system is integral to economic performance. Krugman regularly includes comments about all of the asset markets, not only stocks.

He's most often wrong. But he's also wrong about the economy.

The Luskin's comment made in August 2008 was accurate. We were not in recession at the time.

More, had Bernanke and Paulson not allowed Lehman to fail, we would not have had the collapse in credit which precipitated the financial system meltdown whcih is responsible for the economic sluggishness and distrust we continue to experience now.

You probably shouldn't be in the deep end.

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   06/13/11 11:08

Sorry guys.

My comment was in reply to the person who wrote that Krugman '...isn't a stock picker...' but appears alone rather than alongside his comment.

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John Walker
   06/13/11 07:30

If a man is consistently wrong about his predictions then the opposite must be true. It is comforting to realize he's the one who is predicting the necessity of death panels. Apparently Krugman hasn't earned his Nobel Prize yet.
Deu 18:21c
That prophet has spoken presumptuously. Do not be afraid of him.

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   06/13/11 08:06

No critique of Krugman is complete without pointing out that Iowahawk, a proud graduate of the Ottumwa Institute of Body & Fender Repair, intellectually beat the snot out of Paul Krugman and ate his intellectual lunch.

See: External Link 

and follow up:

External Link 

In the follow up email a Harvard Professor calls Krugman a Nobel Prize Fraud. (Like a certain President I can think of.)

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   06/13/11 08:07

Whatever cachet a Nobel prize used to have evaporated when Obama was awarded one.

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   06/13/11 08:59

The relevance of the Nobel peace Prize had evaporated long before Obama, e.g. Arafat, for one.

Nobels still have relevance in the scientific fields. Of course, economics is far more an art than a science.

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   06/13/11 15:58

Obama's prize merely pushed the bar into the dirt.

It was the Alpha Male's award that categorized the Nobel as a meaningless nod to progressive Power Point presentations.

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   06/13/11 08:21

No reference to cat-kicking?

Anyway, I'm not sure I agree with how a lie is defined, at least in this summary article.

Luskin writes that his team caught "dozens upon dozens of errors, distortions, and misquotations in his columns, which when left uncorrected became lies."

We can be more certain, epistemologically, that a distortion is a deliberately lie if it goes uncorrected, but that means that the statement is revealed to be a lie: I'm not sure it BECOMES a lie.

A minor nit to pick.

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   06/13/11 08:51

Nah, the Nobel lost its mojo when it awarded the Peace Prize to Arafat. We have him on a taped phone conversation ordering the terrorist execution of our first black ambassador.

If you lower the bar that low, giving one to Obama or Krugman is pretty tame stuff.

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Michael Marshrut
   06/13/11 09:50

"Whatever cachet a Nobel prize used to have evaporated when Obama was awarded one."

Ah yes, the much coveted preemptive Nobel Peace Prize...

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   06/13/11 10:07

Lufkin's a Randian.

'Nuff said.

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bebe
   06/13/11 10:11

what planet are you on? He called the dot-com bubble, as it collapsed immediately; if W/Greenspan had reacted logically, interest rates would have been hiked; and house-flipping was gaining traction by 2003-but you're denying there was a housing bubble? Do people really believe your "fair & balanced" interpretations? I find it extremely unsettling that anyone would proudly bleet "he reads Krugman so I dont have to".

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   06/13/11 10:30

His wife edits all of his writings for NYT. So she must be as brilliant as he is...

Krugman is laughable and is on with Muslim Apologist at ABC to prove that all can get along.

Krugman and Robert B. Reichhhhhhh are two peas in a pod of ignorance.

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   06/13/11 10:47

Keynes got rich trading and was made immortal spouting lies - Krugman got rich trading in those lies and others; both belong in a place Dante described so well.

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Jim Folger
   06/13/11 10:54

At last Krugman told the truth: the ONLY way for government to control health care costs is to ration the funds. Rationing means making Obama's "take the pain pill" statement a reality.

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   06/13/11 11:56

I'm not surprised to see the name Krugman and the name Summers in the same article. After all, I'm sure that you will find many of the same names associated with Krugman and Summers in a few organizations that are recruiting centers for the highest levels of our government. The problem is, is that no matter how the names of Krugman, Summers and Rubin are linked to failure, they appeal to both parties and serve the adminstrations of both parties.

Check out the membership of these organizations. It's damned scary, it is. If there's a swamp, these organizations are where they import the alligators.

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