On August 13, Tim Pawlenty could make an underdog comeback — or watch his candidacy go under.
That’s the date of the famously influential Ames Straw Poll, an event where thousands of Iowa voters gather to support Republican primary candidates. For Pawlenty, who has all the right credentials on paper but so far has failed to sell himself as a candidate to many voters, it’s a crucial test of his electability.
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“He needs a first- or second-place finish,” says Craig Robinson, a former Iowa GOP political director and the editor of TheIowaRepublican.com. “Third place has been a deadly spot for people to finish in the straw poll. If you look back four years ago, Sam Brownback finished third and didn’t make it to the caucus. If you go back [to 2000], Elizabeth Dole didn’t make it to the caucus stage.”
On the surface, Pawlenty’s path to a first- or second-place finish at Ames looks rocky. Iowa-born Michele Bachmann is gaining momentum in the Hawkeye State right now. Rick Perry may or may not be a candidate by the time of the Ames poll, but his supporters are already organizing to try to give him an impressive showing. Ron Paul, who finished fifth in 2007’s straw poll, is fighting hard this time, as shown by his campaign’s willingness to spend $31,000 to reserve the prime location outside the Ames arena where the straw poll is held for his supporters. The next-best spot sold for $18,000.
But Pawlenty still has one advantage: his Iowa organization.
“His campaign has made a huge investment in grassroots organization, building the apparatus that it takes to actually motivate people . . . to go to Ames,” says Robinson, noting that Pawlenty has “the best-organized campaign in the state,” with a larger staff than any of the other candidates.
“He doesn’t clearly have the momentum,” Robinson acknowledges. “But as long as the people already signed up get to Ames, I think he could finish well. I think he could surprise.”
An Iowa Republican operative thinks that Pawlenty’s “superior” organization could help him leapfrog over Michele Bachmann and get the approximately 3,500 votes needed for an Ames victory. The operative is dubious that Bachmann could round up enough voters.
The operative notes that in 2008, Mitt Romney’s centralized campaign won the day. “I bet Romney could tell you 95 percent of the voters he had by name. [Mike] Huckabee could probably tell you 5 percent,” the operative says. “That’s because Huckabee had the homeschool groups organizing themselves, [and the] Bible studies, churches, but never really put it down on paper. Bachmann’s running that kind of campaign, and it’s risky, but she’s a candidate who could do it if she wanted to.”
In addition to organization, the Pawlenty campaign has taken several significant steps to amp up the candidate’s presence in Iowa. According to an e-mail sent out last week by campaign manager Nick Ayers, Pawlenty will spend 20 of the next 30 days in the state. Rolling out in a brand-new campaign RV, Pawlenty is doing an average of ten events a day. “We wanted to introduce the governor to as many Iowans as possible. After voters meet the governor, they usually like him and want to support him,” says spokesman Alex Conant.
Pawlenty is changing his Iowa routine. Instead of focusing on meeting influential local leaders privately and working to develop the campaign’s organization, he’s concentrating now on public, open-press events. He’s also giving more interviews to local media, speaking to editorial boards and radio and TV stations.
The campaign has spent $400,000 buying airtime through the last day before Ames. Professional fliers have been shipped out in the state as well.
“Having TV ads, direct mail — the look, feel, sound of a front-running campaign — is actually very important for the Pawlenty campaign,” Robinson says. “His whole campaign is structured on being a different version of Mitt Romney, an establishment candidate who can beat Obama, run the ads [and] a professional campaign. I think if Pawlenty can show people that, look, I’m capable of running a campaign, and maybe I don’t have the same baggage as Romney, I think he could peel off a lot of those supporters.”
Here's to hoping he pulls it off. I really think he has the demeanor, coupled with conservative credentials that can unite all wings of the party, to beat Obama. Remember - a big part of Obama's appeal was, notwithstanding his radical leftist views, he sounded moderate and reasonable. Pawlenty similarly appears to speak (from what I have seen of him) moderately and unobtrusively, but is conservative down the line. I like Bachmann, but she'll never win - we saw in last year's elections that even in a very favorable electoral environment for Republicans, the hard-core, strident tea party-backed candidates (Angle, Buck) couldn't prevail in the swing states. It's not their substance, but the style that is the problem. Pawlenty is not so afflicted and had to get elected twice statewide in a Democratic state, so he has proven his ability to connect with independents and even Democrats while not compromising on policy (yes, yes, I know, except for cap'n'trade - but he's repented, and it's his only real blemish). I really like his chances should he get through the primaries.
I don't think I understand what some NRO readers are looking for in a candidate. Do you need your candidate to be more entertaining? More thrilling? More moving? What is it? We're not the party that looks for Messiahs in politicians, right? We don't want thrills up our legs from politicians do we?
If a candidate is good at flame-throwing (Bachmann), joke telling (Cain), or oceans moving (Obama) that's nice. But it doesn't have anything to do with being President.
I'm looking for a candidate who will govern conservatively and competently AND has proven themselves capable of winning votes from moderates so that we can get to 270. To me, it looks like the only one in the race right now who fits both categories is Tim Pawlenty.
I don't think I understand what some NRO readers are looking for in a candidate. Do you need your candidate to be more entertaining? More thrilling? More moving? What is it? We're not the party that looks for Messiahs in politicians, right? We don't want thrills up our legs from politicians do we?
If a candidate is good at flame-throwing (Bachmann), joke telling (Cain), or oceans moving (Obama) that's nice. But it doesn't have anything to do with being President.
I'm looking for a candidate who will govern conservatively and competently AND has proven themselves capable of winning votes from moderates so that we can get to 270. To me, it looks like the only one in the race right now who fits both categories is Tim Pawlenty.
If you're still looking, look at McCotter, who is apparently still embargoed on these pages and by pollsters. I think he has that vital ability to communicate conservative concepts in language with broad appeal, including an important message that can resonate with the young: that big government is simply an outmoded model. He thinks fast on his feet and (like Ryan) is pretty much fearless of, therefore immune to, being demagogued. He also has his head around all the policy issues, from economic to foreign. Look at videos and you will see what I mean. I like Pawlenty OK, but I think Thaddeus is more of an anti-Obama.
In my opinion, it does not help for writers and journalists to refer to the candidate as "T-paw". As soon as I see that, it makes me want to vomit. The term is to cute and smart by half.
I think the problem for Pawlenty right now is that Perry is lurking as a potential candidate who is at least comparable to Pawlenty in experience and philosophy, but appears well ahead of him in charisma and communications. If Perry announces he's not running, I think that should give Pawlenty a big boost. But if Perry runs and gets off to a decent start, I think the rationale for Pawlenty gets pretty narrow.
As an Iowan, I can tell you that Pawlenty is starting to get my attention. I think at first, I along with many fellow conservatives, have been given to a visceral need for someone to flat out attack Obama. Mr. Pawlenty's personality is not combative and I confess I found that troublesome. However, he is very direct. He does not compromise or back away from solid conservatism in his rhetoric. A vital criterion for my final decision in caucus support is electability in the general.
Perry is interesting to me, but he needs to fish or cut bait and soon. I like Bachmann and have been a fan since the rise of the Tea Party movement. However, if I invoke the WFB axiom, she doesn't make the cut.
This is a good article on Pawlenty's efforts in Iowa. His singular focus will be an interesting test of the effectiveness of grassroots organizing generally and his skills in particular. The last guy to take this kind of methodical, tactical approach was elected the 44th POTUS. By contrast, the 2008 Republican nominee was all about buzz-worthy moments, heroism and publicity angles. I have met Pawlenty several times and he has always come across to me as sincere, well-informed, and committed to the public good. Any politician has ambition, but his does not seem personal. Most importantly, he has a solid philosophical grounding in both limited, modest government and strong faith and family. I see a lot of Calvin Coolidge in him.
I recently went to a Pawlenty event in Iowa. He drew a solid crowd and had people signing up to attend the straw poll for him. He has the best organization, and he is using it. His focus on results is refreshing. I am hoping he surprises some people at the straw poll with a hard won victory.
Given the Ames straw poll and Iowa caucuses foreshadowing with regard to the Republican nomination. I hope Pawlenty does not waste too much money on this effort.
By traditional measures, Mr. Palwenty has little to show for his efforts to raise his profile and build a winning campaign since he first visited politically important Iowa in November 2009. He has the largest staff of any candidate for Iowa's caucuses but registered support from just 6 percent of likely GOP caucus-goers in a recent Des Moines Register poll.
By trying to be acceptable to all groups within this right-wing coalition, Pawlenty may be finding his tendency toward philosophical flexibility a serious, if not fatal, hindrance.
The Presidency should go to our nation’s best and brightest and not its most ambitious.
Pawlenty seems to be running against everything. He is running against Obama, against taxes, and against federal health care. He tells us all the things he is against and will not do but he has failed to state what he will do as president. It is as if he is running against and not for the presidency. If he hates the government so much why does he want to be president?
There is a reason he is so far down in the polls. He has no identity to call his own. Pawlenty lacks an elevator speech for his presidency, he lacks a clear narrative for running, and he lacks a definition for his campaign. After nearly two years unofficially running he is behind Michele Bachmann who has been a presidential candidate for about a month.
Pawlenty is a derivative candidate. He has yet to carve out a narrative that distinguishes himself from the other more famous candidates running. He is thus far a boring, bland, GOP governor from somewhere in the upper Midwest; a candidate who never won a majority of the votes as governor.
Pawlenty has tried several narratives for the last couple of years but none seem to work. He is against taxes but so are other candidates. He opposes abortion and same-sex marriage, but so do others. He in so many ways has run for president on the narrative “Me too” when referring to his positions that ape his more famous competitors. Pawlenty has simply failed to carve out a distinct set of political views that distinguish him from the pack.
On top of that, Pawlenty cannot fill in his narrative with his record in office. Maybe he can say no tax increases for eight years, but he left the state with a fiscal mess that is not good. He cannot point to a major turnaround in schools, and he has no other real accomplishments he can point to. A bridge collapsed under his watch and he lost the unallotment case. There is also no evidence of coattails with his victories and instead, he may owe his election to Paul Wellstone’s plane crash in 2002 and the huge turnout for Michelle Bachmann in 2006 that gave him the winning edges.
Pawlenty is a RINO. His go-along-get-along record with the public service unions as Governor of MN. explains why the polls show that Iowa Republicans are overwhemingly going for Michele Bachmann, the true anti-Obama.
Pawlenty is a RINO. His go-along-get-along record with the public service unions as
Governor of MN. explains why the polls show that Iowa Republicans are overwhemingly
going for Michele Bachmann, the true anti-Obama.
7/19/11 The Public Policy Polling national poll shows Bachmann is not just an early-state phenomenon, and she hasn't yet hit her ceiling: Bachmann: 21% of Republican primary voters vs. 20% for Mitt Romney.
Michele Bachmann 29%
Mitt Romney 16%
Tim Pawlenty 8%
Katrina Trinko's piece reads like a cut-and-paste release from the Pawlenty campaign. I'm surprised she left out the migraine story, which also originated with the desperate TPaw.
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