For anyone who expected transformational changes from the fight over the debt-limit increase, Speaker John Boehner’s plan to raise the limit is a disappointment. But as a way to begin to control Washington’s spending, and to avoid the potential economic and political costs should the debt fight go wrong, it is a worthy framework.
The Boehner plan increases the debt limit by $1 trillion or a little less immediately. At the same time, it would cap discretionary spending so that the government has to spend roughly $1 trillion less over the next ten years than it currently plans to. These caps would be enforceable law, valid unless both houses of Congress and the president decided to break them. In the second phase of the plan, a bipartisan congressional committee would recommend roughly $1.8 trillion in additional deficit reduction. Congress would consider the recommendations under an expedited procedure, and if they passed, President Obama could ask for another debt increase of $1.5 trillion to get beyond the 2012 election.
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The advantages of the plan are that it does not raise taxes, it imposes some spending restraint, and it reduces the risk of disruption to credit markets. It could get through the Senate and, if it did, President Obama would almost certainly have to sign it — which would be a political defeat, given that the president first sought an unconditional increase in the debt limit, subsequently sought tax increases, and is now implying that he will not sign a short-term deal.
But the Boehner plan obviously has downsides, too, which its proponents would be wise to acknowledge and, where possible, remedy. The initial savings are tiny — and will likely remain so even as Boehner scrambles to revise the plan to make it more palatable to conservatives. (The Congressional Budget Office estimated that the real cut from this fiscal year to the next would be a pathetic $1 billion.) The big numbers accrue only over time, and who knows what Congress is going to look like five, eight, or ten years from now? While the first tranche of the plan features, in theory, a one-for-one match of spending cuts to increased borrowing authority, no one can say what would happen with the second tranche. The committee the plan sets up smacks of typical Washington buck-passing, and it could become a vehicle for a tax increase along the lines of what the Gang of Six proposed. The plan might not impress the rating agencies enough to prevent a downgrade to the federal government’s credit.
Thus we understand the skepticism of House conservatives. They should by all means work to improve the plan. In particular, they should try to make the up-front cuts larger and the total savings larger. If they can’t strip out the committee the plan establishes, they should push to stipulate that it can recommend spending cuts but not tax increases, and insist that Boehner and Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell commit to naming the likes of Jeb Hensarling, Paul Ryan, and Jon Kyl — anti-taxers and spending hawks all — to the committee. Boehner, for his part, should be open to these changes. He wants a plan that can pass the Senate and believes his qualifies. But the Democratic Senate is bound to make some changes. So let Boehner concentrate on getting a majority in the House first and then go to the Senate with a stronger negotiating position.
What House conservatives should not do, we think, is simply work to blow up the plan in the hope that wondrous things will happen when it explodes. Some of our friends in the House seem to think that if they push the stalemate far enough that the government hits the debt limit, victory will fall into their laps and scores of Democrats will go along with a constitutional amendment that requires balanced budgets and limits spending. It is more likely that, with Republicans having openly pushed for blowing the deadline, they will be blamed for any negative consequences. Senate Republicans may cut and run even before that point, isolating the House and making it more likely that a rump of House Republicans will work along with Democrats to pass something worse than the Boehner plan. The least likely outcome is that liberals will sign a suicide note by acquiescing, in the next week or two, to the enshrinement of conservative fiscal goals in the Constitution.
The Boehner plan, even in modified form, is surely not the sort of compromise House freshmen envisioned passing when they came to Washington. But they have already made a difference. Without them, a clean debt-limit increase or a Gang of Six deal would have likely passed Congress. Without them, there would be no spending cuts at all. But a plan that does everything we conservatives think necessary to secure our fiscal future cannot be enacted in today’s Washington. The election of Barack Obama in 2008, and the Democratic retention of the Senate in 2010, had consequences that continue to this day.
The 2012 elections will have consequences, too. If Obama is reelected, the further socialization of American medicine will proceed and the modernization of entitlements will not. Taxes will very likely go up. If Republicans want to return the federal government to its proper constitutional dimensions, the legislation they advance now must do as much good as possible while also laying the groundwork for the election of conservatives, and the defeat of liberals, in 16 months. The easier they make it for Obama to blame Republicans for hurting the economy with debt-limit brinkmanship, the more they will undermine that goal.
What Republicans should do, then, is simple, albeit difficult. Cut spending. Hold the line on taxes. Avoid a fiscal crisis. Defeat Obama and Senate Democrats. And with a new mandate and additional allies, set to work bringing lasting change to Washington.
This is a very sound editorial. I think the advice is very wise. We need simple, patient leadership at this point from our senior-level congresspeople.
Now is NOT, repeat NOT, the time for hotheadedness or anarchy.
The Boehner plan is a battle. The war will be in November 2012. Just get the bill passed and move on. Obama's administration is target-rich. The GOP must sell smaller, constitutional government vision to the public now.
The House conservatives need to keep their eye on the objective -- the 2012 elections. If they nuke this plan they will destroy any chance of the Republicans defeating Obama next year.
Over the years the Republicans have mastered the art of shooting themselves in the foot. Blowing up this plan amounts to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Being right for the sake of being right does not cut it in the real world.
The one billion in savings is pathetic. The committee is even more pathetic. Do some tweaks, but keep Boehner on the forward trajectory.
America deserves it.
If Obama is re-elected next year we can kiss of this country as we know it. Forever.
The conservative public would be more willing to jump on board if they had any faith that elected Republicans were actually serious about truly reducing spending. We remember how Boehner got taken for a ride on the 2011 budget, and he's still trying to sell that as some great victory. He's proposing the same old tricks with 10-year cuts that will never materialize. Baseline budgeting ensures that no real cuts actually occur. The response? Well, we just have to wait until 2012 to control the presidency and the full legislature. Well, how did that work out last time?
I believe the modified Boehner plan to be unveiled later today will have more up-front cuts in FY 12 (which begins October 1, 2011). Your point is legitimate.
Exactly. We sent the new batch of Conservatives into the House last election to CUT spending NOW... to start trimming the fed gov't back NOW... and not raise any taxes on any Americans. They weren't put there to just carry on sleazy DC business as usual. That's what has gotten this country into the hole its in now. I'm sick of the GOP establishment whining (and they are the ones whining, not Conservatives) and lecturing the rest of us that this is the best we can do. If that's the best you can do, when you were only 4 votes short of passing Cut, Cap and Balance in the Senate... that's pathetic. This country simply can't keep on spending and growing the fed gov't like this. We're just about at the point of no return right now. Most of have to live and operate our businesses within our means... and within a budget. Its time NOW for the federal gov't to be forced to do the same.
It worked out better than the alternative in a country with foreign enemies and so many citizens that misunderstand our predicament.
Mike has good reason to be pessimistic. Which says that conservatives have a lot of work to do to convince a few more people of the errors in their perspective.
So, get busy convincing more of your neighbors of the validity of the conservative insight. And, be charitable.
The point, Art, is that progress happens at the margins. When you vote, it's not like waving a magic wand and expecting to get everything you ask for. You voted for a representative, others voted for their representatives, now they're in a tug of war for different things. Enough people voted like you that you may have a slight edge in representation this time, but it's not as though they completely took over the government. If your guys play their cards right, you will get the most you can get now, and then, if their behavior now makes them look good, they can get you more later. You can certainly critique how they did, but argue in the context of reality.
A third party will accomplish zero, and it will also take away from whatever one of the other two could have done, which might be bad for you.
No, the plan is not perfect, but it is a good start. Until we get the Senate majority, we need to do what we can now. Sure I want more cuts and less spending, but the conservatives need to pass the plan and put this at the libs and Obummer feet. We cannot at this point give any victories to the Dems. If we lose in 2012, this country is toast. I say move this plan forward and let the left take the blame.Are we all so foolish to think we could turn everything around after 1 election?
GOP has failed us again -- I voted for the Pledge and expected to see it implemented in word and deed.
Boehner has sold us out and it is time to vote him out, of the speakership and/or the house.
The GOP won a second chance in 2010, they will not get a 3rd. Time to cull the herd or form a new party. Enough is enough.
1. Once again we don't have a cut only a reduction in the rate of spending increase.
Two. The planned reductions will never happen because the politicians in office on the day of reckoning will not take the heat. Nothing done today is in anyway binding on the Government 10 years out.
Three. To always raise the debt ceiling is to admit that it will always be increased and that it is no limit at all. Better to do away with it.
Fourth. This is an admission that we cannot control our spending. It reaffirms the Wimpy principle: "I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today."
Fifth. This is not about electing Republicans. It is about saving the country and I have no interest in a Democrat lite plan or a Democrat lite Republican.
Sixth. If the debt is not really worth dealing with (and this plan says that it is not) let's spend like there is no tomorrow and run the printing presses and shower everyone with billions of dollars.
Republicans may have to hold their noses and vote for this, but look at your own criteria.
Cut spending: this bill doesn't.
Hold the line on taxes: check, for the moment.
Avoid a fiscal crisis: unclear. We're headed toward the fiscal cliff at $170 million per hour. Slowing down to $169.9 million per hour doesn't really help - we could easily go over before Nov 2012.
Defeat Obama and Senate Democrats: we'll see who wins the spin battle. Past history is not encouraging.