Is Ron Paul the candidate to beat at Ames this year?
The Texas congressman may be sixth in the national polls, according to the RealClearPolitics average, but when it comes to winning straw polls, no one is better. Smart organizing and an especially dedicated base propelled Paul to victory at the CPAC straw poll in both 2010 and 2011. More recently, Paul won the straw poll at the Republican Leadership Conference this June, beating a crop of popular GOP candidates, including Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain. While attention is focused on the Bachmann–Pawlenty rivalry (and how many write-in votes possible candidate Rick Perry can score), Paul may just swoop in and be in the top three — or win outright.
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“He is slowly emerging as a very real contender at Ames,” says Tim Albrecht, communications director for Iowa governor Terry Branstad and Mitt Romney’s Iowa press secretary last cycle. “If he just starts [with] that base that he turned out [in 2007], and then turns out just a fraction of his caucus goers, all of a sudden he can turn out what it takes to win. I certainly think he’s in a strong position to have a top-three finish.”
In 2007, Paul finished fifth at Ames, trailing Romney, Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback, and Tom Tancredo. Publicly, his campaign is sending out the message that any placement better than fifth will be satisfactory. “Even though we got a late start compared to most of the other candidates (Bachmann, Pawlenty, et al., started gathering organization on the ground in Iowa long before they announced), if we finish somewhere in the top four, it would be a great improvement over 2007,” says campaign spokesman Gary Howard.
The Paul campaign has aggressively laid the groundwork for an impressive showing at Ames, including buying the priciest (and best) location by the arena where the straw poll is held for $31,000. In a fundraising letter last month, Paul wrote, “I’m counting on you to help me send shockwaves throughout the national political establishment with a strong finish at the Iowa Straw Poll.” His “Ready, Fire, Ames” appeal resonated: The campaign raked in $600,000. The Paul campaign is running TV ads, and Paul himself has been actively campaigning in Iowa.
Earlier this week in Iowa, he openly speculated about winning at Ames. “I wished I could say I’m the frontrunner and nobody’s ahead of me and it’s a shoo-in. But the truth is that we can do and will do very, very well and hopefully come in first,” Paul said, according to Radio Iowa.
Drew Ivers, Iowa chairman of the Paul campaign, is cautiously optimistic. “All things are possible,” he says of a first-place finish at Ames. But he is also realistic, pointing out that while Paul has had significant poll movement (an American Research Group July poll showed Paul at 14 percent, up from the 3 percent he had in April), Bachmann has had even more movement (in the same poll, Bachmann went from 9 percent in April to 21 percent in July).
“The goal that we have as a campaign is to do well. It doesn’t have to be first place,” Ivers says. For him, another crucial factor is how many votes separate the candidates: He is hoping there won’t be a “big gap” between Paul and candidates who place higher.
Ivers, who thinks that Paul’s message resonates in Iowa more now that it did in 2007, observes that Paul supporters in Iowa have become “more politically astute” and are “more comfortable showing up” at Ames.
Cory Adams, the GOP chair of the county that includes Ames, predicts that Paul will do well at the straw poll. “I think he’s got a fairly good shot, maybe even of winning it. If not, he should be in the top three,” says Adams, who endorsed Paul last week.
If Paul does win, Albrecht is dubious that he could piggyback onto the momentum to a caucus win.
“Ron Paul is the guy who brings new voters to the Republican party,” says Albrecht. “His greatest challenge is going to be bringing Republican party voters to Ron Paul. That’s what he’s got to overcome. Until he does that, I don’t believe he can win a large-scale event like the caucus.”
A few honest men. That is all we have. Our Federal government, The Supreme Court, The House, The Senate, The Presidency............In all of that, all we have are a few honest men. There are two main ideologies that govern the minds of all these men and women. Ideology One is the ME ideology. The second ideology is the YOU ideology. In the first, the men and women will do and decide what is best for ME, that is the self interest of each of those "representing us." The second ideology is the YOU ideology. That is when each of these "government servants" will decide what is right for YOU regardless of whether that is what you want or voted for or not. The lies, the subterfuge, the disembling, the media hype, all that has gone into this "Debt Ceiling Circus" is an essential example of what I write here.
We have never needed a man of integrity in the Presidency as we do now. Our government servants have opted for the "free-fall" mode in which they loot every possible penny from the taxpayers before they flee overseas and disappear. They are a pack of greedy, self-indulgent scoundrels, and can never be trusted.
Ron Paul, however, is not one of these men. The fact that Ron voted against all three versions of the bill will speaks to his integrity...
Yet again, every other Republican altered their stance due to "extenuating circumstances."
Ron is the only candidate who sticks to his principles.
Ron Paul is so correct in pointing out that we should refuse to pay the federal reserve the money they PRINTED OUT OF THIN AIR and with NO SKIN put on their criminal game. And he is so right again, in declaring we must hold the line of the debt sealing, and cut up the credit card. We should tear up the debt card as well.
Remember the bankster bailout of 2008? Now, after giving some 28 Trillion dollars and growing to vampires on Wall Street, the FED, and offshore, they want us to raise the debt limit to pay interest on it! The average American h as been too distracted with bread and circus to realize what is going on, but that is beginning to change. How's about making Bernanke pay us back our sixteen trillion he gave away, I mean loaned to his criminal friends.
He actually represents the educated middle class and is honest to boot. The corporate media poses to lose money if his ideas are implemented, since they too are based around the loot-and-run philosophy of today's politicians. They are doing everything they can to keep his word boxed up tight, and they are doing a good job of it.
We, as honest citizens, have to take matters into our own hands. We know he is right, and we know he is being ignored. Everywhere we go, Ron Paul's words and philosophy are being censored, ignored, and deleted off message boards, blogs, news, and polls. The more popular he becomes, the more intense the censoring becomes. They are desperate to stave off a peaceful revolution in politics; one in which the system is rebooted and the nation saved from financial collapse.
They stand to make more money if the nation descends into fiery ruin. They will be able to steal and sell our assets, then escape and leave the common people with less than nothing.
We must not let this happen. If you support Ron Paul, and value the tenets of the constitution, volunteer now for his campaign effort. It is the only way you can make a difference with normal people and avoid the censoring of the corporate media.Ron Paul 2012 END the FED.
Over and not out
I have dealt with the Ron Paul fanatics in my local community. They are dishonest, nasty, and ruthless. They supported 3rd party candidates in the fall and made it harder to elect conservatives to office. They create online blogs where they smear local Republican leaders and have even taken them to court. They lose but much damage is done in the process. At Ron Paul rallies, the "new" Republicans will start chanting "9-11 was an inside job" and Ron Paul does nothing to stop them. Ron Paul refused to support the Republican nominee last time and if by some weird circumstance he gets the nomination, many Repubicans will refuse to support him. Obama would cream him.
Mike, I find your reasoning for not liking Dr. Paul a bit bizarre. First you call his supporters fanatics who are "dishonest, nasty, and ruthless", despite the most anecdotal of evidence.
Second, as for not supporting McCain last round, I take that as a sign that Dr. Paul's views are serious and real. He will stand by his principles as opposed to the WWE style debates between the dems and the GOP. There should be a clear difference between democrats and republicans in terms of policy, but for the establishment of both parties there doesn't seem to be. That's what Ron Paul was driving home when he refused to support McCain.
Obama will not cream him. It will be the other way around since unemployment will be over 9% still. Perhaps 10%, Obama has no answers has not kept many of his promises. Ron Paul is principled and stands for Americans,even you. Appreciate him and quit fooling yourself because he is your only real chance to restore America again.
I've heard of Paul for decades and of his "Libertarian" views.
With the failures of Cons in this vote, I'll be giving him and Bachmann a much closer look for my campaign donations.
He does not participate in the lucrative Congressional Pension Program.
He returns a portion of his annual Congressional Office Budget every year.
He has never voted to raise taxes.
He has never voted for an unbalanced budget.
He has never voted to restrict gun ownership.
He has never voted to raise Congressional Pay.
He never voted to increase Executive Branch Power.
He will Reinstate The Constitution and Save The Republic
He will END the unconstitutional FED.
He will phase out the unconstitutional IRS beginning immediately
He will secure the borders
He will limit Big Government in your private affairs
He will stop Illegal immigration and no amnesty
He voted against regulating the Internet
He voted against the Iraq War and warned us against going forward with an undeclared war.
“Let it not be said that no one cared, that no one objected once it's realized that our liberty and wealth are in Jeopardy” July 10th, 2003
He voted against the un-patriotic so called Patriot Act.
He supports a non-interventionist foreign policy yet a strong military
He will end the inflation tax
He is a true Constitutional Conservative
He would have soundly beat Obama in 2008 because Independents trust him and like him.
We could have had a V8 instead of McCain't in 08
Ron Paul for President 2012
Because no one else can be trusted to say what he means and do what he says like Ron Paul does.
“I would remind you that extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice!
And let me remind you also that moderation in the pursuit of justice is
no virtue!” Barry Goldwater
"I have little interest in streamlining government or in making it more efficient, for I mean to
reduce its size. I do not undertake to promote welfare, for I propose to extend freedom. My aim is not to pass laws, but to repeal them. It is not to inaugurate new programs, but to cancel old ones that do violence to the Constitution, or that have failed their purpose, or that impose on the people an unwarranted financial burden. I will not attempt to discover whether legislation is "needed" before I have first determined whether it is constitutionally permissible. And if I should later be attacked for neglecting my constituents' "interests," I shall reply that I was informed that their main interest is liberty and that in that cause I am doing the very best I can." Barry Goldwater
Senator Barry Goldwater's son, Congressman Barry Goldwater Jr. endorses Ron
Paul. Ron Paul has been warning us for so long of the impending economic
disaster we are seeing today, and he has been purposefully working to
wake us to realize we must change our course to save the Republic.
I take Ron Paul very seriously. He may not be the most polished public
speaker, but he speaks the truth with unvarnished power; He needs no
teleprompter to carry on an intelligent discourse for over two hours to a
packed auditorium of twenty and thirty something voters! He may not be
the tallest, or the most strikingly handsome candidate, but people want
the Real Deal
Ron Paul is the man of the hour. They used to
laugh him for being way ahead of the others in his thinking and his
warnings. Now, they are not laughing because what he predicted is coming
to pass. Now, he is being called a prophet for having warned us and
still calmly suffered through the barbs. "First they, ignore you, then
they fight you, then you win." Gandhi
You've got to hand it to the Ron Paul people. They ain't crusty. After the disgust of this debt deal, he/they might just pull it off. Aug 13th will be interesting.
Ron Paul is only 'sixth' in the RCP poll average if you count in 3 people who aren't even in the race and as a consequence have only the rosy expectations of the newcomer and no vetting done recently at all. Guiliani only has a few polls at all, for example.
However, if Ron Paul can get into the top 3 at Ames, that will be huge since his 'organization' can hardly be better than Pawlenty's who has been essentially living with full staff in Ames for a long, long time, Bachmann, who as the current poll darling is having huge media buys and events and has been courting the tea party organizations there since at least January, and Cain, who people tend to discount now, but who was the previous poll darling, and obtained many commitments at that time. Santorum has had full time staffers and phone banks going long term, as well.
The straw poll IS a large scale event, and Ron Paul took 4th in Iowa back when he was much less popular. This isn't 2007's election.
The Ron Paul supporters deserve credit. Despite what this article says Ron Paul has been ranked in the top 3 in every major poll. He also seems to be the best shot against Obama that the Republican party has. Im starting to look through what the cable pundits say and can see why his support is so active compared to others. Take a deeper look into his consistent record and top notch personal values folks. Im glad I did.
Your only argument against Ron Paul is that a few of his supporters were a little rude and that the bulk of them somehow made your vote count less by voting for a third party candidate.
Are you really that ignorant to dismiss a person because a few people you met that support him were rude? (something which you didn't actually provide any anecdotal evidence of, by the way)
I implore you to actually take a look at his long record of 12 terms in congress which does not just line up with the current political talk like these so-called "conservatives" that you are advocating for. Take a look at the voting records of Mitt Romney and Michelle Bachman and you might be surprised to find that your beloved "conservatives" have voted numerous times for legislation that they now, all of a sudden, say they are opposed to.
Ron Paul has always voted on his principles. He has never voted for an unbalanced budget, never to increase taxes and has never taken a government junket. Washington has not seen a presidential candidate with strong principles like this in decades.
Please don't let your ignorance blind you from the truth. I beg you to research some of Dr. Paul's arguments and you will see that there is nothing but logic and fact in the reasoning behind his votes.
Unlike basically every other candidate, Ron Paul is honest and consistent. Unlike mainstream conservatives who want government "out of their lives", Ron Paul means it - including the lives of Iraqis and women. Unfortunately, many of his policies (regarding taxation, for example) are just not sustainable in the real world. In the end, though he has such good intentions, he is simply TOO ideologically driven.
The reason this country is in the mess it is is because people have compromised their ideologies and beliefs in return for re-election. Ron Paul is the ONLY politician in this country that has remained true to his beliefs and said what needs to be said without worrying about reelection. Hmmm, funny that he has been supported by ~80% for reelection in his CONgressional bids. Does he know something the others don't?
There is NO Other honest candidate! Seriously, they all lie. Ron Paul tells it like it is and as it should be and has been saying all these things for over 30 years. The only hope is you naysayers and doubters who don't take the time to really look at his views with an open mind will wake up.
"Is Ron Paul the candidate to beat at Ames this year?"
The fact that is a serious question means the Ames Straw Poll is a joke. Nothing against Ron Paul who as one of 453 members does a service, akin to the court fool who tells the truth when no else dares, but he is not fit to step foot in the White House.
Michael K, on what basis is Ron Paul "to step foot in the White House"? Was Clinton (impeached) fit? George "heh heh" Bush? Obama?
Paul has more vision, principle and natural leadership qualities (people _want_ to follow his lead) then the last four presidents combined.
His record is immaculate. His vision is made clear not only in countless floor speeches, but in at least half a dozen books detailing all aspects of his economic and political philosophy and thought.
Are you suggesting that Romney, Bachman, Palin, Pawlenty, Cain, Huntsman or Perry is more fit? Paul runs circles around these people!
Please explain why you are saying that is it because he is telling the truth or because he want's the Federal Government to follow the US
Constitution Please explain the problem with that
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