Ames, Iowa — Rep. Ron Paul has crisscrossed the Hawkeye State for months, generating enthusiasm for his presidential campaign. But his efforts involve more than pressing the flesh. Paul, perhaps more than any other contender, has a plugged-in network of true believers — from Federal Reserve critics to constitutional conservatives — who communicate online, often sharing links and coordinating political activities outside of the official apparatus. Many within this sprawling movement began organizing for the Texas Republican three years ago, when Paul last ran for the White House. At the Iowa GOP’s straw poll on Saturday, which will be held on the campus of Iowa State University, the 75-year-old lawmaker will likely reap the benefits of their fervent exertion.
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A Rasmussen poll released Monday shows Paul poised to finish near the top. He earned 16 percent support from likely caucus-goers in the survey, behind Rep. Michele Bachmann (R., Minn.) and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, but ahead of former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty and Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, a potential candidate. The strength of Paul’s Iowa base was reflected in Rasmussen’s findings, which revealed that only 28 percent of probable caucus participants are “absolutely certain” of how they will vote, with many undecided Republicans planning to attend the event. Yet among those who are certain, Paul laps the field, with 27 percent of decided attendees in his camp.
In the final hours, Paul is making a hard push to get that number even higher. Along with 30 members of his extended family, who took a 17-hour bus trip from Texas to join him on the trail, he is hitting small-town street corners and the state fair in Des Moines. His son, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, a tea-party favorite, has been at his side. “We are seeing big crowds everywhere,” Senator Paul told me as he jumped onto the bus with his wife, Kelley. “In the middle of the day yesterday in Mason City, we had 120 people packed in there.” The crowd at an Ames hotel that morning was another large group, with Paul supporters cheering on the congressman over coffee and crispy lemon Danishes.
“I think Ron has been underestimated by a lot of the national media, in particular,” says Rep. Steve King, an influential GOP congressman from western Iowa. “He has been working in this state for about five years,” planting the seeds for success in this campaign under the radar of the press. “If there is a low turnout on Saturday, Ron Paul is in a position to win the straw poll. His supporters are the solid libertarians who have a lot of conviction and he can motivate them to come out for him.” King thinks the most notable aspect of Paul’s 2012 campaign is that his supporters — unlike those of many other prominent candidates — actually are “Iowans.”
Both King and Paul’s campaign point to oft-ignored southern Iowa, the small towns on the Missouri border, as a Paul stronghold, with their rural, conservative leanings. “They’re really his people,” says Chuck Laudner, a longtime Iowa GOP operative. “The other candidates have soft support.” Speaking Thursday in a first-floor conference room, Paul predicted a strong straw-poll showing. He credited his flinty, axe-it-all platform as the reason, arguing that since his last run, his ideas have more resonance in Republican circles. “It’s catching on. They have accused me now of being mainstream,” he chuckled. “Can you imagine that? All I know is that I haven’t changed my views, so maybe the sentiment is shifting.”
Days after 30 U.S. troops were killed by Taliban militants, Paul emphasized that as president, he would quickly remove American forces from Afghanistan. His foreign-policy remarks drew nods from many around the room, who told me afterward that they are frustrated by the ongoing conflicts and their personal and fiscal costs. “Things aren’t going so well there. This week has been a bad week for us,” he said. “I get such heartache when I think of our men and women serving and dying.” He added that he would take a different position “if . . . we had a precise enemy, and we could declare war and know how victory could come about, like we did in World War II.” But as things stand, he remains committed to withdrawal.
“This is in the Republican tradition,” Paul noted. He cited the late Ohio Republican senator Bob Taft as an example of how conservatives have long been against “entangling alliances” and extensive military engagements. “Today we go into Libya and we go into Afghanistan under a NATO banner. We look for U.N. resolutions,” he said, shaking his head. “I don’t even want to be in the United Nations.” He compared his view on such matters to that of H. R. Gross, a late Iowa congressman who retired from office in 1974. Many in the room seemed unaware of the reference, but Paul pressed on, praising Gross and his “Old Right” beliefs, which he thinks are bubbling up once again within the party. “It’s a winner, as far as I’m concerned,” he said.
Dr. Paul is the only choice really. If you want another Bush, vote for any of the other candidates at the debate last night. If you want real solutions, VOTE PAUL
It's funny how it always goes "I'm starting to like Paul, he is the only one that makes sense." It really shows that there's a mainstream philosophical hurdle that people need to get past. If Paul can consistently get fair exposure, his message of liberty and peace will spread like wildfire.
Paul didn't do well in last years Ames Poll. The GOP establishment has been downplaying the straw poll from the beginning this election so they can dismiss it.
But King is trying to lower expectations to make a good showing by Ron Paul less important. I'm a Ron Paul supporter and while some internet communities that started during Ron's last campaign 'kept going' and do provide a natural focus for organization now that he is running again, we did not start organizing for the straw poll THIS time, years ago. In fact, we weren't sure Ron would run again until early this year (and even then were uncertain.)
Bachmann, on the other hand was in Iowa wooing the self organized tea party networks at least as early as January. Not to detract from HER showing, but the fact is, the straw poll takes organization, and if people vote for Ron, they'll have gone to see and vote for him, not to hear Randy Travis.
I don't think Mr. Paul needs to lose any sleep over being considered mainstream anything, especially as his views are more widely disseminated. Is there a fonder hope and dream in the White House than that Mr. Paul should win the 2012 nomination? Even in this economy, President Obama, would be looking at a reelection victory of 1964 proportions. Cordially, Bill
Actually, Ron Paul polls better against Obama head to head than any other GOP candidate except Romney, and Romney is basically out of the fray and not getting vetted much now.
And in Texas PPP polled Ron Paul as beating Obama by 5 points, (only Romney did better, again) whereas, say, Perry lost to Obama by 2 points. In TEXAS.
And it was so nice for everyone to agree in advance not to ask any questions about "the Middle East" (an important Republican talking point where Obama has been so very, very wrong), because Paul's hair would catch fire as he explained how the Jews run Washington.
Has Ron Paul ever said Jews run Washington?? I don't think he's ever said anything close to it.
But now that you bring it up. Ray McGovern 27 year veteran of the CIA who gave President Reagan his daily CIA briefing along with the Vice President and the Joint Chiefs. When George H W Bush became President he prepared his daily CIA briefing.
To William R:
The article that your hyperlink leads to is as accurate as The Protocols of the Elders of Zion or Mein Kampf, two masterpieces of anti-Semitic propaganda based on theories going back to the Dark Ages and even earlier than that. I am intimately acquainted with the USS Liberty and the June 8, 1967 event. During the Six Day War (1967 June5-11), USS Liberty kept in close proximity to the Israeli shores, intercepting Israeli messages and relaying them to the Brits, who were, in turn, informing the Egyptian Army of the Israeli positions. There are many other examples, when pressures from various Presidents made Israel extremely vulnerable to its enemies, but I am not going to waste my time describing them to you, since you are unlikely to be receptive to facts. Israel should not take one penny from any country, in order to avoid the sort of pressure that has often jeopardized its security. As regards to Ron Paul, he is the sort of person that will guarantee the defeat of the Republican Presidential candidate in 2012.
Don't give me the Protocols of Zion and Mein Kampf nonsense You're just trying to shut down the discussion with your hysterical BS.
The facts remain the same, on the morning of June 8, 1967 Israeli aircraft began flying over the USS Liberty. They flew close enough to where the crewman of the Liberty were exchanging waves with the pilots. After six hours of these flights Israel attacked.
"Is the Liberty episode being erased from history. So it would seem...What has happened to our prying journalistic corps and our editors, normally so indignant of attempted suppression of the news?...We believe that a joint select committee of Congress should investigate the strange case of the USS Liberty..."
-- William F. Buckley, journalist and publisher, National Review, June 27, 1967
To William R:
I don't care about journalistic "investigations." Neither do you impress me with your political analysis. This event was thoroughly probed into by the US Government and Israel was ultimately exonerated of any wrong-doing. However, the question remains as to the presence of an American ship in the proximity of the Israeli shores during war-time. As regards to your objectivity where Israel is concerned, Europe was and is replete with creatures like you.
All the United States government did is cover it up. The United States concluded it was an accident. One problem though, they didn't call one member of the crew. Not the Captain or any of the offices.
I have to admit I liked the part where Ron said we should have put the WWII German and Italian POWs on trial in civilian courts. Makes a lot of sense. On the other hand, apologizing to the Japanese for encouraging them to bomb Pearl Harbor might have been going too far.
I used to vote Libertarian but I stopped after the WTC attacks because too often Libertarian candidates just aren't realistic when it comes to foreign policy and national security.
Ron Paul's claim that Iran is not a threat because it doesn't have an air force that can reach our air space is a complete non sequitur. Nowadays a power that wants to attack the United States doesn't mobilize fleets and armies and send them towards our coasts. It dispatches terrorists, launches cyber attacks or undertakes any number of hostile actions short of open warfare.
I sympathize with Paul's preference for a WWII-type conflict because that is the type of warfare at which U.S. forces excel. But if we refuse to adapt to our enemies' methods we will always lose. What's odd is that one would think that libertarians above all would understand that in international affairs the rule of the jungle applies.
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