Journalism, they say, is a rough draft of history. Sometimes very rough.
I have in mind a recent piece by Bob Woodward, among America’s most celebrated journalists, about the debate that took place within the George W. Bush White House over Syria’s al-Kibar nuclear reactor. CIA director Michael Hayden told the president his agency had “only low confidence” that the reactor was part of a nuclear-weapons program. Nevertheless, Vice President Cheney favored a military strike, as he makes clear in his newly released memoir.
According to Woodward, this demonstrates Cheney’s failure to learn the lesson of Iraq, where flawed intelligence about Saddam Hussein’s possession of stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction was a major factor in President Bush’s decision to topple the dictator.
Advertisement
Woodward writes: “Cheney said he wanted the United States to commit an act of war to send a message, demonstrate seriousness and enhance credibility — a frightening prospect given the doubts. Two participants in the key National Security Council meeting in June 2007 said that after Cheney, the ‘lone voice,’ made his arguments, Bush rolled his eyes.”
Kudos to the WashingtonPost’s editors: A few days after the Woodward piece, they ran an op-ed by four former Bush-administration officials — Elliott Abrams, Eliot Cohen, Eric Edelman, and John Hannah (Hannah is currently a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, of which I am president) — who participated in the deliberations over the Syrian reactor. They were blunt. Woodward’s account, they said, is a “revisionist and misleading history.” And Woodward “misunderstands the reality of al-Kibar.”
Among the facts Woodward neglects to mention in his piece: Al-Kibar did, in fact, turn out to be a nuclear-weapons facility.
Woodward may have seen that as not relevant to his point that unleashing military power in the absence of rock-solid intelligence is risky. But in the real world, rock-solid intelligence is rare. What’s more, intelligence requires analysis. Those advising Bush, the former officials recall, knew that the reactor was built “in the middle of the desert and — according to the CIA — ‘was not configured to produce electricity.’ For what likely purpose was it built, then, if not to produce fissile material for nuclear weapons?”
Bush’s advisers knew, too, that Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was building the reactor secretly even though, as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, he could have openly and legitimately built a civilian nuclear power plant — so long as he did so under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Why would he choose instead to violate his international treaty obligations and obtain secret assistance from, of all places, North Korea?
The White House advisers did not argue over these questions. No one was so naïve as to believe that al-Kibar was being built to power homes, farms, and baby-formula factories. Rather, the dispute among them was over “what to do about the most brazen nuclear proliferation case in history. . . . Here was the world’s worst proliferator providing nuclear assistance to one of the world’s worst state sponsors of terrorism — which also happened to be facilitating attacks on American troops in Iraq. It is hard to imagine a more egregious challenge to the Bush Doctrine and America’s war against terrorism.”
Cheney favored swift and decisive military action. Others wanted to continue to pursue a diplomatic solution. “Whatever our individual views, Woodward is dead wrong to present the vice president’s arguments as unreasonable,” the four former officials write. “His advice was seriously considered at the time, and his claims look even more prescient in hindsight.”
In the end, after Bush decided not to act and diplomacy went nowhere, the Israelis took it upon themselves to destroy the reactor. The former advisers write: “Syria then spent months trying to sanitize the site and stonewall the IAEA — confirmation of its non-peaceful intentions. The Israeli attack in September 2007 was flawless, Syria and North Korea did not lash out, and a dire proliferation threat was eliminated for good. America and the world are safer for it.”
Thanks, Mr. May. I appreciate your effort to put the "pieces" in the correct order.
Woodward isn't out to illuminate the truth; he's out to bend circumstances to meet his agenda...AND...to seek all of the personal recognition that he can get. In addition, when Dr. Eliot Cohen (et al) takes the time to rebuke Woodward's attempt at revisionist history, it should be viewed as absolutely profound.
(I had the distinct privilege as a JMO to work on "GWAPS", which Dr. Cohen directed.)
"Was usurping the president’s authority the goal of those who wrote that NIE?"
That is what I believed at the time and GWB was a changed man after that. It became the place Bush seemed to decide he was out-manned on what he knew to be right.
National security and foreign policy issues have become so politicized. A broom needs to be taken to all those agencies until it is filled with people who respect the chain of command.
I really appreciate the articles you have been bringing to the table, Mr. May. Thank you!
The civil service is populated by the brain-addled product of our "elite" universities, upon which for some weird reason we continue to confer prestige. They are indoctrination mills that transform gullible, overachieving sycophants (sometimes known as "students") into politically correct parrots of leftist dogma. If the CIA is so consistently wrong, disband it. Bad intelligence can be had much more cheaply. I could have told you what Syria was doing with that reactor from my living room couch, for free. The Left always claims to distrust and hate the CIA anyway. It was hobbled by the Dems after Watergate, but what they really did was transform it into a propaganda machine intended to hobble Republican presidents.
Footnote: As to the inevitable rejoinder "oh, but we must have the best and brightest", I have two reactions: (1) an illiterate, homeless, drunken bum passed out on 33rd street would never have made the blunders these overpaid geniuses have made, and (2) I'd rather have the country in the hands of average but loyal people, than in the hands of smarter but treasonous types. Egomaniacs are incapable of humble self sacrifice.
In 1976 on America's 200th birthday, PLO terrorists hijacked a French plane flying out of Israel and holed up at Entebbe in Uganda threatening to execute the hostages if their various demands were not met. It was little Israel, not France or any other country that rescued the hostages in a military operation that will go down in history as one of the most heroic and admirable military feats. I lived in Los Angeles at the time and decided to commemorate the event with a poem recorded by Henry Fonda. "That Little Bitty Country Showed Us How." Fonda was having heart problems, we had delays and I never recorded it with him. Mr. May's article brought this to mind because I am convinced that it will be Israel again which will save the world from Iran's Nuclear ambitions. They did it in Syria and they'll do it again.
THAT LITTLE BITTY COUNTRY SHOWED US HOW
I’d been wondering what had happened to our world
As if someone turned it upside down and got it all unfurled
Any bum who had a gun could have his day
And all the sheep in leader’s clothes would look the other way
But that little bitty country showed us how
You don’t talk to bullies, you don’t bow
You move like a man and you mow’em down
The Rescue at Entebbe is renowned
The bullies with their guns took the plane
They had grenades and acted bold with blazing eyes, insane,
The innocent a board were bound for France
They had no chance
But that little bitty country showed us how
You don’t talk to bullies, you don’t bow
You move like a man and you mow’em down
The Rescue at Entebbe is renowned
The bullies made demands, acted tough
A hundred souls they herded in a hanger, handled rough
With not a friend between, a thousand leagues away
That little bitty country decided what to do that day
Yes that little bitty country showed us how
You don’t talk to bullies, you don’t bow
You move like a man and you mow’em down
The Rescue at Entebbe is renowned
Across the sea we celebrated in the sun
200 years since we had dealt with bullies and had won
While we rejoiced and waved our flags, they flew their planes at night
They did what seemed impossible, they saved their kin; they won their fight…
That little bitty country showed us how.
Reading this piece reminded me of a BBC article from April 2008 in which a CIA video report (11 minutes long) on al-Kibar is included with the article. After reading the op-ed by Abrams, et. al., it would seem that at least some of the "irrefutable evidence" they referred to in the op-ed that emerged in April 2007 were the photographs taken on the ground, inside the al-Kibar facility before its destruction, shown in the CIA video. I am greatly impressed and thankful for the incredibly dangerous human intelligence work done to acquire this evidence. My first guess would be Israeli intelligence, but that's just a guess. At the very least, thanks to Israel for taking action and destroying this chilling example of North Korean and Syrian cooperation. Here is the link to the BBC article (including the video) from April 25, 2008, entitled "Syria 'had covert nuclear scheme'":