In a Middle East wracked by coups d’état and civil insurrections, the Republic of Turkey credibly offers itself as a model, thanks to its impressive economic growth, democratic system, political control of the military, and secular order.
But, in reality, Turkey may be, along with Iran, the most dangerous state of the region. Count the reasons:
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Islamists without brakes
When four out of five of the Turkish chiefs of staff abruptly resigned on July 29, 2011, they signaled the effective end of the republic founded in 1923 by Kemal Atatürk. A second republic headed by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Islamist colleagues of the AK Party (AKP) began that day. The military safely under their control, AKP ideologues now enjoy can pursue their ambitions to create an Islamic order.
An even worse opposition
Ironically, secular Turks tend to be more anti-Western than the AKP. The two other parties in parliament, the CHP and MHP, condemn the AKP’s more enlightened policies, such as its approach to Syria and its stationing a NATO radar system.
Looming economic collapse
Turkey faces a credit crunch, one largely ignored in light of crises in Greece and elsewhere. As analyst David Goldman points out, Erdoğan and the AKP took the country on a financial binge: Bank credit ballooned while the current account deficit soared, reaching unsustainable levels. The party’s patronage machine borrowed massive amounts of short-term debt to finance a consumption bubble that effectively bought it the June 2011 elections. Goldman calls Erdoğan a “Third World strongman” and compares Turkey today with Mexico in 1994 or Argentina in 2000, “where a brief boom financed by short-term foreign capital flows led to currency devaluation and a deep economic slump.”
Escalating Kurdish problems
Some 15–20 percent of Turkey’s citizens identify as Kurds, a distinct historical people; although many Kurds are integrated, a separatist revolt against Ankara that began in 1984 has recently reached a new crescendo with a more assertive political leadership and more aggressive guerrilla attacks.
Looking for a fight with Israel
In the tradition of Gamal Abdel Nasser and Saddam Hussein, the Turkish prime minister deploys anti-Zionist rhetoric to make himself an Arab political star. One shudders to think where, thrilled by this adulation, he may end up. After Ankara backed a protest ship to Gaza in May 2010, the Mavi Marmara, whose aggression led Israeli forces to kill eight Turkish citizens plus an ethnic Turk, it has relentlessly exploited this incident to stoke domestic fury against the Jewish state. Erdoğan has called the deaths a casus belli, speaks of a war with Israel “if necessary,” and plans to send another ship to Gaza, this time with a Turkish military escort.
Stimulating an anti-Turkish faction
Turkish hostility has renewed Israel’s historically warm relations with the Kurds and turned around its cool relations with Greece, Cyprus, and even Armenia. Beyond cooperation locally, this grouping will make life difficult for the Turks in Washington.
Asserting rights over Mediterranean energy reserves
Companies operating out of Israel discovered potentially immense gas and oil reserves in the Leviathan field and other fields located between Israel, Lebanon, and Cyprus. When the government of Cyprus announced its plans to drill, Erdoğan responded with threats to send Turkish “frigates, gunboats and . . . air force.” This dispute, just in its infancy, contains the potential elements of a huge crisis. Already, Moscow has sent submarines in solidarity with Cyprus.
Other international problems
Ankara threatens to freeze relations with the European Union in July 2012, when Cyprus assumes the rotating presidency. Turkish forces have seized a Syrian arms freighter. Turkish threats to invade northern Iraq have worsened relations with Baghdad. Turkish and Iranian regimes may share an Islamist outlook and an anti-Kurd agenda, with prospering trade relations, but their historic rivalry, contrary governing styles, and competing ambitions have soured relations.
While Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu crows that Turkey is “right at the center of everything,” AKP bellicosity has soured his vaunted “zero-problems” with neighbors’ policy, turning this into wide-ranging hostility and even potential military confrontations (with Syria, Cyprus, and Israel). As economic troubles hit, a once-exemplary member of NATO may go further off track; watch for signs of Erdoğan emulating his Venezuelan friend, Hugo Chávez.
That’s why, along with Iranian nuclear weapons, I see a rogue Turkey as the region’s greatest threat.
The USA has plenty of real enemies we cannot even handle now ( see Pakistan) . No need to go find new ones.
The Turks are going there own way. However the current Turk Government is solidly Democratic and Fiscally conservative. Arguably Turkey's most important function is merely to exist as an example to other Muslim Nations.
Mr Pipes is always projecting the worst case scenarios. Some day he may be right. But his track record over the past 10 years is not impressive.
Is it possible that the rise of this new Turkey might in some warped way bring stability to the region? We already have an Iran its neighbors are afraid of and an Egypt that, while its political future is still uncertain, possesses a large military. Add Turkey to the mix and we have three military powers all trying to balance one another out. It could either lead to an explosion in the region or some kind of tense stand-off in the region as these countries vie for influence among their lesser neighbors.
I'm not prediciting the region will become more stable, but it COULD be a possibility.
Turkey(and Egypt)going Islamist HARDLY "balances things out". Instead,it makes Israel again totally surrounded by Islamist enemies,literally worse than ever before,considering Iran and now Turkey adding in on the enemy side. Turkey has already shown how it plans on treating Israel,as enemy,by it's provocation with the Mavi Marmara's blockade attempt.
The region is lining up for another big Islamic-Israel war. All the ducks are slowly getting in a row. This one will be the biggest ever. All countries surrounding Israel will attack simultaneously with a Gaza attack, West Bank uprising, and 5th column initfada by the Muslims living inside Israel proper. Nuclear weapons will be used. Lots of nuclear weapons.
It is amusing, in a sad sort of way, how all the neo-con types covered for Turkey's dictatorship, killing of Christians (Armenians, Greeks, Assyrians) and Kurds, seizure of northern Cyprus and the other assorted shenanigans. Now that it has become a democracy and shows what the people actually think vis a vis the West and especially Israel, the worm has turned. Sounds a lot like other mistakes the US keeps making (Afghan mujahadin, Pakistan, etc). You can only ignore the truth so long before it pops up in your face.
"After Ankara backed a protest ship to Gaza in May 2010, the Mavi Marmara, whose aggression led Israeli forces to kill eight Turkish citizens plus an ethnic Turk, it has relentlessly exploited this incident to stoke domestic fury against the Jewish state."
Seriously Mr. Pipes - are you functionally retarded? A ship with absolutely no weapons on board delivering aid to the Palestinians in Gaza "led Israeli forces to kill eight Turkish citizens plus an ethnic Turk" - really? Are you sure you don't want to rethink that position? If eight US citizens were killed do you think our government would legitimately be upset about it? Come to think of it, wasn't the "ethnic Turk" you referenced an American citizen?
I always marvel with utter amazement at the depths which neo-cons will sink to in defending the stupid policies of the Israeli government. Enough with this stuff already.
Israel has a LEGAL blockade of Gaza to deny it arms and materials useful for building bunkers and other war uses,due to Gaza's acts of war against Israel. Turkey knew this,and sent a ship to run the blockade anyways. Surprise! The Israelis stopped and boarded the ship when it refused to divert or dock at Ashdod Port for inspection and transshipment of it's legitimate goods. The Turks or the terrorists aboard attacked the Israeli boarders and ended up getting shot and killed.It was an INTENTIONAL provocation by the Turks.
Besides,the Israelis had the right to inspect the ship itself to be CERTAIN there were no arms or terrorists aboard.
actually the blockade is consistent with law ONLY in so far as it restricts the acquisition of weapons.
denial of building materials and most all of the other restrictions that were in place and restricted food, clothing and school materials were not legal and furnishing terrific propaganda for the nasty little terrorist core of Hamas while doing not a thing to help Israel.
if anything, restricting Gaza imports to the tunnels strengthened Hamas by allowing them revenue and patronage jobs through their control of tunnel traffic.
Every choice we make has consequences. If this statement is beyond your comprehension, then you have greater issuses to resolve within yourself than the question of Israel's right to selfdefense.
Some people are pretty naive. Turkey has become just one more part of a big enemy;Islam.
And if anyone really believes the Turks are still "democratic",they're deluded. The Turk military was all that kept the nation secular and democratic,and it's been infiltrated and under Islamist control. Any political candidates running for election will be Islamists. No seculars will be allowed.
Yes, it is a democracy. This is what the people voted for. Just because you don't like what they chose does not change the choice. The fact that the neo-con types hugged up to the generals shows how much they knew this to be true.
Not a true democracy. Let the people vote to abandon islam. Let the people vote to allow Christians and Jews to practice freely and profess their faiths publicly and you will see the true nature of democracy in Turkey.
Here we go again with the same ignorance. I'm just ignoring the "voting for abandoning islam" part as I have no idea what you are referring to. I will only say this much: There is not any reference in the constitution to islam.
Regarding the nonsense about christians and jews practicing their religion freely and publicly..well I hate to break it to you but it's happening everyday..Once again, I have to ask what kind of information sources you have. I know how to deal (and even accept) with people who simply hate muslims but even they have to stick to some sort of minimum level of truth.
saying Islam is a big enemy means you're not "democratic" or well-informed or able to tell the difference between a Muslim and an "Islamist" or whatever gas it is that you're passing.
There are approximately 17000 Jews living in Turkey. To put that in perspective there are about 25000 Jews living in Iran.
Turkey has for decades systematically made life intolerable for Jews and other religious minorities.
They have, frankly, had a more subtle approach than many muslim countries. They do not engage in any sort of mass slaughter. Much like a python they slowly but surely strangle their victim.
Look at the Turkish civil code. Turkey is not a secular nation despite what people say. They are just more subtle.
If you do not believe me then try building a new Church or Temple or even just rebuilding an existing Church or Temple in Turkey.
Or you can take the easy way and just look at their flag.
What you seem to be missing is the fact that Turkey has made life intolerable for all of its citizens (Jews, Armenians, Kurds, Religious muslims, Alevi's) except for the elite bureaucracy and few businessman & politicians.
Thank god it has and is changing now. The old rulers are still resisting but they lost the war already...
