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Euro-Collapse
It was predictable.

By Conrad Black


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The admirable Seth Lipsky of the New York Sun, formerly of the Wall Street Journal and the (English-language) Jewish Forward, seems to be the first American commentator since Walter Lippmann to recognize the prescience, in post–World War II matters, of Charles de Gaulle. He was referring especially to de Gaulle’s recommendation of a restored gold standard as de Gaulle and his chief economic adviser, Jacques Rueff, feared what would happen to the world’s currencies if they were valued only in relation to one another.

Their fear was not misplaced; the U.S. dollar, euro, and yen are all engaged in wholesale inflation, thinly disguised by phony calculations of domestic inflation and by relatively stable relationships between one another, because they are in almost free fall together, like three mountain climbers all sliding down the face of the peak and toward a hard landing.

As Ron Paul pointed out to Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke a few weeks ago, in eight years the U.S. dollar has lost 85 percent of its value opposite an ounce of gold, and this is not the roseate picture revealed by official inflation figures.

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I am not convinced that a return to the gold standard is the answer, as gold is an impractical metal and this would confer undue economic influence on speculators, prospectors, and mining engineers. My suggestion is for a composite standard: one-third gold, one-third oil, and one-third a basic consumer-price, essential-spending, basket. Any such yardstick will reveal the distressing crash of the value of units of currency and anything producing a fixed yield: It is a tale not only of scandalous official profligacy and failed stewardship of the value of savings and many categories of investment, but also of official dissembling, misinformation, and pusillanimity.

It is of a piece with the great drive of Presidents Clinton and George W. Bush to swallow the free lunch of expanded family home ownership (and payoffs to the building trade unions and residential-real-estate speculators), by ordering and legislating pelagic immensities of non-commercial (i.e. worthless) residential mortgages.

Charles de Gaulle was born in Lille in 1890, to the family of a monarchist schoolteacher. De Gaulle was a Flaubertesque haut bourgeois, as well as an officer of the French army when it was rivaled only by the German army as the greatest in the world, and was unrivaled as the most storied army of all. He was imbued with the middle-class concept of the value of savings, frugality, pay-as-you-go. To him, greatness and security could never be bought or sustained on the installment plan. And mere politicians, whom he considered a lesser breed swimming in a sticky fondue of moral weakness and opportunism, could never be trusted to resist the temptation to pander, devalue, or seek short-term gain.

De Gaulle’s farsightedness was not confined to national projections of household economics; he also warned of the dangers of Euro-integration. He was the chief architect of the Franco-German friendship treaty of 1963, and — as a veteran of the terrible hecatomb of the Battle of Verdun and a World War I prisoner of war of the Germans, as well as the founder of the Free French in World War II — he knew as well as anyone the horrors of the centuries-long conflict along the Rhine. He also favored a common market and the end of violent ancient rivalries among the many European nationalities. But he always saw a homogenized, centralized Europe as a dangerous fantasy. He believed that a Continental interest, composed of as many as 20 or 25 languages and cultures, would be only an alphabet gruel, blended and stirred by faceless bureaucrats from the little countries, and not representing any real popular interest at all.

He thought that the original Common Market of France, West Germany, Italy, and Benelux could be used by France, effectively maneuvering between the U.S. and the USSR, and between Germany and the Russians, to project and amplify France’s — and, more particularly, his own — influence. Up to a point, while the U.S. was mired in Vietnam, and before European Communism became too enfeebled to challenge the West (which de Gaulle also foresaw), he was correct. But he believed that an unlimitedly accessible Europe would become an incoherent Tower of Babel, governed by bureaucratic intermeddlers in the name of feckless politicians, and liable to excessive outside influence, including from the U.S.

He would never have subscribed to the romantic fraud that Europe, with its many nationalities standing on each other’s shoulders, could have resumed its place as the political epicenter of the world that it had forfeited when it trooped deliriously off to war in the summer of 1914. But it is the merest speculation to suppose that even de Gaulle would have foreseen that an over-united Europe would so soon degenerate into a dyspeptic, demographically dwindling, Islam-raddled lumpen mass of welfare addicts. From 1965, when he was reelected president of France, to now, the reproductive rate of native Europeans of traditional stock has declined by about 40 percent, to levels that will lead to an extinction as easily plotted as that of the American carrier pigeon (which darkened the skies in its numbers in Audubon’s time, and passed into posterity at the Cincinnati Zoo in 1922). GDP growth in Europe in the first three post-war decades fell by over 50 percent over the last three. As Bret Stephens recently pointed out in the Wall Street Journal: “In 1973, Europeans worked 102 hours for every 100 worked by an American. By 2004 they worked just 82 hours for every 100 American ones.”

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COMMENTS   31

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MN J
   09/29/11 07:42

Frightening - has any society ever turned around such a mess? It takes intestinal fortitude and, unfortunately, that trait appears to be missing in far too many European (and American?)"leaders."

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   09/29/11 07:48

Best line about Europe I have ever laid eyes on, "...an over-united Europe would so soon degenerate into a dyspeptic, demographically dwindling, Islam-raddled lumpen mass of welfare addicts."

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   09/29/11 07:54

"It is of a piece with the great drive of Presidents Clinton and George W. Bush to swallow the free lunch of expanded family home ownership..."

Thank you for mentioning that Bush was in on the mortgage fiasco's underpinnings. Too many on the Left use Bush as a sysnonym for conservative, when domestically he quite often had more in common with technocratic Democrats.

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Merlin Perkins
   09/29/11 10:24

"Too many on the Left use Bush as a synonym for conservative"

Exactly. When RINOs are considered conservatives by some of the electorate then the distinction between Liberal and Conservative is lost to them, and you hear things like "the Republicans and Democrats are all the same." It would be hard for me to vote for Romney,good man that he is, for that reason.

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   09/29/11 14:43

Hind sight is 20/20. Nearly everyone on the right and the left thought home ownership would result in more responsible people because home owners were typically more responsible.

Little did anyone realize, that the causal affects were reversed. Home ownership does not result in responsibility. Responsibility (frequently though not always) results in home ownership.

Not to say that the unethical economic wave you speak of did not also occur. There was a lot of nonsense happened along the way, but I believe the original intent was honorable. Which unfortunately gave the corruption and simple foolishness more traction.

Of course good intentions pave the way to hell and we have learned that once again in this situation.

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   09/29/11 08:23

FYI, it was the Passenger pigeon, not the Carrier pigeon, that once darkened the skies.

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peter o'keefe
   09/29/11 08:50

You've regained your sparkle.

Congratulations.

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phwest
   09/29/11 09:12

A correction, but the pigeon referenced in the article is the passenger pigeon (not carrier). In addition, the last pigeon in captivity died on Sept 1, 1914 (not 1922), which draws another obvious parallel to Europe.

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   09/29/11 09:14

I see the main problem with the Euro being the fact that those member countries do not share similar ideals.

Just look inward and we see the decay of the U.S. economy has a direct correlation with the fragmentation of societal ideals accelerated by a corrupt judiciary out of step with traditional values.

The judicial class has been afforded the luxury of disassociating themselves from their humanity - this trend must be reversed.

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   09/29/11 09:56

You have reminded me of the 1965 ‘chaise vide’ crisis widely misinterpreted as de Gaulle’s drive for ‘grandeur’ and in opposition to Britain’s lack of commitment to Europe thus an antidote to US and USSR geopolitical domination. Yet, at the end of the day it was national commercial and agricultural policy and what that entailed vis- à-vis supra-nationalism that makes his legacy relevant today. Ironically, in very de Gaullic terms Britain remains out of the Euro zone and now France holds the bag for the Greek gift (ignored by the French press).
Stimulating as always.

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   09/29/11 10:02

"... an over-united Europe would so soon degenerate into a dyspeptic, demographically dwindling, Islam-raddled lumpen mass of welfare addicts."

One of the prettiest turns of phrase in a long time. All the more extraordinary by its trenchance. Also, comming soon to America - the same thing. The election of 2012 will tell whether we are just Europe farther west or truly still the USA.

BTW, just today the German legislature approved the financial restructuring. As I was afraid of the German people have just had their pockets picked.

Now it is going to get really ugly. Things will be allowed to get even worse before the real clean up can begin. How many band-aids can they put on a severed artery before the patient bleeds to death? We will now get the chance to see.

As I understand it the Greeks will get a refinance that will be for 30 years. In other words, for the next 30 years the Greeks will not only have to have, on average, a balanced budget but also they will have to have for the next 30 years, on average, a surplus sufficient to pay off the debt. Who do these people think they are fooling?

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   09/29/11 13:24

Despite all the promises, Greece is further from balancing their budget than they were at the start of this mess.

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   09/29/11 13:54

Well shoot. Let's make the notes for 300 years. 10 to 12 generations of hard working Germans ought to be able to pay their own and Greece's bills. Of course there may not be any Germans in 300 years, or Greeks, French or any other Europeans. I wonder if the caliphate of Europe will pay for Greece?

Time to short Europe.

I am going to watch Merkel's next election very closely. She and her supporters may have been able to hand over Germany's collective wallet to the EU but I suspect the German people will have something to say about it.

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   09/29/11 10:02

Minor quibble. It's the passenger pigeon that has gone extinct. The carrier pigeon carries on. Pun intended.

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   09/29/11 10:39

what is telling about Charles de Gaulle is the following;
when the normandy landing was going to start, he was not in the plan for any leadership position.
he said, if i do not have a leadership position, i will tell the underground to do nothing to help the landing. they saw him as more of a problem then a solution.
when patton wanted to bypass paris
and reach the rhine, he caused enough problem to were paris had to be taken first allowing the german army to regroup. he made sure that france left nato after all that the allies had do for his country.

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Mike Cazayoux
   09/29/11 10:42

The Passenger Pidgeon (not carrier) that darkened the skies.

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Perplexed
   09/29/11 11:01

Unfortunately, no one who is in the know wants to speak the truth. There isn't enough money in Europe to salvage the indebtedness for all of Europe. Too many countries have too much debt for any country including the US to back to avoid default. Between Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece, and who knows how many more, the debt exceeds GDP by too much. Expect at some point the truth to eventually come out and the house of cards to crumble. Even Asian investors, who are the most optimistic, see calamity when Europe collapses.

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Russ Davis
   09/29/11 11:44

As usual, the fantasy of facts and figures is so appealing to fools who don't have a clue as to the real world, the true fabric of life that has been torn, by de Gaulle as much as any, that of how we answer to the Lord Jesus Christ before Whom we will give and account at the Judgment.

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   09/29/11 12:23

I depend on Conrad Black for sentiments like...

"[A]n over-united Europe would so soon degenerate into a dyspeptic, demographically dwindling, Islam-raddled lumpen mass of welfare addicts."

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   09/29/11 12:26

"it will quietly perish."
Will Europe really go quietly into oblivion? Will it even be oblivion at all? I doubt both. When the entirety of rational leadership fails to address problems, it merely makes room for the irrational extremists to lead in their place. The vacuum will be filled. I expect that the death of Western Civilization in Europe will be convulsively violent, and the outcome will be closer to Egypt than Antarctica. In my mind, the most important question is whether the USA will have the foresight and resolve to take away the nuclear toys before the new owners claim them.

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