The liberal coalition may not be as liberal as you’d expect. According to the most recent “Battleground Poll” from the George Washington University and Politico, there are some surprisingly large reservoirs of conservatism among many voter groups typically viewed as card-carrying members of the liberal voting bloc.
In some cases, a majority of these voters actually describe themselves as conservative. And in many ways they have begun to turn on the president’s relentlessly liberal agenda. Clearly, much more ideological turbulence is to be found these days on the left than on the right.
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Here are some examples, drawn from the response to the question asking voters to categorize themselves according to their ideology:
Among the takeaways are:
While conservatives outnumber liberals two to one (63 percent to 32 percent) in congressional districts controlled by the GOP, Democratic lawmakers represent districts with a much more balanced ideological breakdown – 46 percent conservative to 49 percent liberal. This suggests that more Democratic lawmakers may need to watch their backs when they vote a hard-left line than the other way around. And when it comes to Obama’s handling of such crucial issues as jobs, federal spending, and the economy, Democratic-controlled districts are not exactly rife with Obama mania. Fully 46 percent disapprove of his handling of the jobs issue, half disapprove of his economic policies, and 53 percent give a big thumbs down on his spending habits.
Similarly, union households, 60 percent of which swooned for Obama in 2008, split right down the middle ideologically. This must be an inconvenient truth, to say the least, for the increasingly radical leftist leadership of the modern labor movement. And it’s all the more reason for conservatives to reinvigorate efforts to liberate union members from being required to pay dues against their will.
The findings on Hispanics are especially interesting. Obama, it is often noted, won two-thirds of Hispanic votes in 2008. But ideologically, this group is up for grabs — 51 percent are conservative and 49 percent liberal. And the gender gap here is the reverse of the typical dynamic. Usually, women lean more to the liberal side than do men. For example, women who are white, or under age 45, or politically independent tend to be more liberal than their male counterparts. Hispanic women, though, are more likely to be conservative (54 percent) than are Hispanic men (49 percent). The internal data in the Battleground poll reinforce the sense that Hispanics should be very receptive to conservative messages, especially those relating to the economy, jobs, and spending. Hispanic men, in particular, should be a target audience for our message of limited government and pro-growth economic policies — 87percent of them list pocketbook issues as their primary concern.
Urban dwellers are also nearly as conservative (45 percent) as liberal (47 percent). Considering that 63 percent of them cast their ballots for Obama in 2008, this suggests either that a quiet ideological realignment is underway in our cities, or that Obama waltzed into the Oval Office with the support of millions of urban conservatives. Here, too, we find precious few happy campers. The majority is disappointed with the president’s handling of spending and the economy, and a plurality with his performance on the jobs issue.
Herman Cain may or may not win the Republican nomination (9/9/9 may not be a winning plan), but his rock star popularity with the tea party is causing some extreme cognitive dissonance among many of my friends who voted for Obama. They are finally seeing, after a lifetime of not paying much attention, how cynically they have been played for fools by the media and the Democratic party.
Their false sense of security that the inevitable Yin and Yang balance of partisan politics will always work out has been shaken. Some are actually coming to the realization that policies really do matter, and that big government doesn't have all the answers.
I loved far-left Janeane Garofalo's "explanation" of Cain's popularity among the GOP base.
She said that this proves that the GOP base is racist (!!!). And why is that? Because she said that they are deliberately acting like they support Cain in order to avoid facing up to their innate racism.
"But ideologically, this group (Hispanics) is up for grabs — 51 percent are conservative and 49 percent liberal."
Says the same chart that claims 42% of black men are 'conservative' yet voted for Obama at more than 95% and have voted Democrat in huge numbers for decades.
I've talked to a number of black Republicans, and they tell me that you wouldn't believe the amount of social pressure they feel to vote Democrat. They've been told from the day they were born that Republicans want them lynched, and only Democrats will protect them. And many of them believe that.
It comes down to the economy. Remember the group known as "Reagan Democrats"? The Republicans in 2012 have to tap into fiscally-conservative Democrats. If there's a focus on social conservatism - gay marriage, abortion, xenophobia - those votes can't be had. Perry with his "prayer sessions" is already out of play for getting those votes. Romney, however, might be able to demonstrate that he was Governor of a pretty liberal state without foisting his, or any, religion on its residents.
Mr. Gerrard you really have a hang up with religion. I don't believe Gov. Perry or any other candidate has suggested forcing any of their religions down anyone's throat. Unlike the Libs in this country who want to force zero references to religion, Conservatives do not force their religion upon anyone else.
There is a piece of paper called the Constitution which does not permit the Federal government to have the power to force religion on anyone.
I'm sorry you have a phobia of religion but it is your right to be a non-believer. I respect your non-faith, please respect people of faith.
Marriage has been between a man and a woman since the dawn of time but if you love a man, have a good and happy life.
If you want an abortion, feel free to have it but don't ask me to pay for it.
Xenophobia - really? I believe anyone who comes to this country illegally is a criminal - regardless of the country they left - even if the person is a Brit.
JD, the constitution and a lot of case law indicates places where religious references are not allowed. Don't blame the "libs" when politicians are stopped from putting Christmas trees and the 10 commandments where they don't belong.
I'm as conservative as you are, but you, nor any Christian politician, have NO right to force teachers to discuss Genesis as a valid "alternate theory" for biology.
"Marriage has been between a man and a woman since the dawn of time"? You apparently don't know much about medieval history, some native american marriage practices, Egyptian history, or modern thinking about the relationship between Saint Paul and Timothy.
Who has asked you to pay for an abortion lately? How have you responded to people who want to pass laws limiting abortion?
I totally agree with your dislike of the front-loaded nomination process. Let's hear from more people in more states. And even though I think that NH and IA (You know what? I happen to LIKE the two-letter USPS abbreviations!) get too much power, I like that small states get an early say - if we opened with California and Texas, financial concerns would drastically limit the field. But yes, let's stretch it out for months to give people a chance to build or lose momentum, and allow for a relative unknown to make a real impact.
But how does this fit in with your recent pleas to cut candidates out of debates? Do you really want to stretch out this process but limit it to Perry, Bachmann, and Romney? This seems like a very inconsistent pair of opinions.
Personally, I like having a lot of voices. I think, given time, we can give everyone a fair hearing, instead of rushing the job and ignoring all but a few media appointed few. It's important to hear from all ends of the party's (either party's) political spectrum. Let the voters wrestle with Gary Johnson's foreign policy ideas, Pat Robertson's views on marriage, Herman Cain's 999 problems (but pizza ain't one) leading to a Fair Tax.
The author, in my opinion, overlooks a crucial point (especially in regard to Hispanics and union members. He wrote: "The internal data in the Battleground poll reinforce the sense that Hispanics should be very receptive to conservative messages, especially those relating to the economy, jobs, and spending." Hispanics are generally socially conservative, and this is something that should be emphasized and not hidden by anyone seeking their votes. Similarly, many union members are socially conservative. They work for a living and understand the value of a dollar, but often feel betrayed by a leadership that takes positions on abortion, gay "marriage" and other DNC talking points instead of looking out for their interests.
I think the key word here is "self identified" conservatives. Here in the northeast I know a lot of people who self identify as 'conservative' who have never pulled the handle for a republican. Any republican, no matter how liberal, is deemed 'too conservative' to actually vote for.
We best not get our hopes up based on this data. If you asked these same people actual questions which would have identified their views as conservative/liberal, you would find MUCH different results.
These voters have been there for the taking by Republicans for decades. Republicans just hardly ever try to get them. Like nearly all Americans, these people live their lives based on conservative principles. These voters just need to be courted from this standpoint.
The reason the Republican establishment hasn't pursued them is because they're slaves to the liberal media storyline on everything. It's the same reason Boehner and Co. won't shut down the government. The media would howl, and the Repubs still haven't figured out yet that the media does not represent the country.
When President Bush tried to bring Hispanics into the fold the Rush, Hannity, Ingram, Coulter cabal pushed then into the Democrat's waiting arms with a paranoid hysteria that Hispanics were a solid Democrat voting block. Obviously they're not.
Conservatives who espouse "my way or the highway" are the problem. Thank God, President Reagan isn't running for office now or he'd be pilloried as a RINO.
This data shows that the Tea Party, along with others in the Republican spectrum must become evangelical about promoting their ideas.
We can't leave this to politicians, but must become open and communicative ourselves. We need to invite our liberal friends to our meetings and openly engage them in conversation on these issues.
This is a good debate on conservatism. But, John Mccain and George Bush weren't conservative enough, and more of the me too liberals.
How conservative should a person be to a conservative? Should it be social, fiscal, trade, or on foreign policy. It would take a coalition of these to win elections. But, it is best to have a candidate that has as much of these items as possible.
There are conservative Democrats that should be Republicans because they are conservative enough.
Entertaining writing about liberals. The really fun part about this is most people don't know that liberal economics means - less government intervention in markets. Conservative economics is a protectionist posture. So the conservatives would like to protect the wealthy. This has lead to thirty years of falling GDP. Anyone in favor of the 1981-2008 Reaganomic "conservationism" has not sent children overseas to war and supports for "to right, to fight, for Wall Street to Party!" Get beastie boys. economicgps.com
Entertaining writing about liberals. The really fun part about this is most people don't know that liberal economics means - less government intervention in markets. Conservative economics is a protectionist posture. So the conservatives would like to protect the wealthy. This has lead to thirty years of falling GDP. Anyone in favor of the 1981-2008 Reaganomic "conservationism" has not sent children overseas to war and supports the MBA "right, to fight, for Wall Street to Party!" Get beastie boys. economicgps.com
I've been a default democrat for more than 40 years...until now. This administration and its mouthpieces have finally awoken me to the agenda and goals of leftist ideology. They have caused me to start reading every conservative writer I can get my hands on - from Hayek to Mamet. I am out of the closet and have begun annoying all my liberal friends who expect the usual echo chamber when they post the groupthink propaganda from moveon.org and the like.
I can't imagine ever supporting a democrat again...and I'm not the only convert. I think there are many like me, and more coming. Obama will lose in a landslide in 2012, and conservatives may even take the Senate and the House.
The Republican Party is too intent on targeting Hispanics as scapegoats rather than on targeting their votes. We need a secure border; we don't need a lot of hyperbolic scare messages and stereotyping. But we get the latter, and when conservatives, like Gov. Perry, try to have a more nuanced view, they got shot down by the hard core fanatics.
While conservatives outnumber liberals two to one (63 percent to 32 percent) in congressional districts controlled by the GOP, Democratic lawmakers represent districts with a much more balanced ideological breakdown – 46 percent conservative to 49 percent liberal. This suggests that more Democratic lawmakers may need to watch their backs when they vote a hard-left line than the other way around. And when it comes to Obama’s handling of such crucial issues as jobs, federal spending, and the economy, Democratic-controlled districts are not exactly rife with Obama mania. Fully 46 percent disapprove of his handling of the jobs issue, half disapprove of his economic policies, and 53 percent give a big thumbs down on his spending habits.
