There was a sudden change in Obama’s Virginia itinerary this week. The White House initially told local Democrats that the president’s bus tour would stop in four communities: Danville, Newport News, Fredericksburg, and Charlottesville. 

To the White House, the cities represented friendly territory. In 2008, Obama carried Danville with 59 percent, Newport News with 64 percent, Fredericksburg with 64 percent, and Charlottesville with 78 percent. But Virginia has state legislative elections this year, and the initial Obama list coincided almost perfectly with a selection of incumbent Democrats who are desperate to distance themselves from the national party.

From the perspective of the state-senate races in play this November, the White House couldn’t have chosen worse spots to hold events — or better spots, in the eyes of the state GOP. The stakes are considerable: Republicans currently need to win two seats to tie control of the chamber and have Republican lieutenant governor Bill Bolling resolve tied votes; winning three additional seats would give Republicans outright control. Virginia Republicans consider eleven seats to be “in play,” and are feeling good about their odds of a takeover at this point. 

“It’s obvious that the Democrats have been scrambling,” chuckles J. Garren Shipley, the Virginia GOP’s communications director. “To leak and then scrap a four-city tour is more than a little telling. If the White House had been coordinating with people on the ground, they would have known that their state Senate candidates in all those areas are in serious trouble, and that Obama is in serious trouble there, too.”

(It undoubtedly helps to have a Republican governor whose approval rating ranges from 62 to 70 percent — Bob McDonnell features heavily in ads for his party’s candidates this cycle. “If you didn’t know better, you would think Bob McDonnell is running for reelection, and some other guys pop up on the screen every now and then,” laughs one Virginia Republican.)

In the south-central corner of the state, around Danville, redistricting has pitted two incumbent state senators, Republican Bill Stanley and Democrat Roscoe Reynolds, against each other. Stanley has been doing everything possible to tie Reynolds to Obama, calling him “just another politician voting for tax hikes and increased spending just like the Democrats in Washington.” Stanley’s attack ad depicts Obama next to Reynolds; one can imagine the Republican’s elation at the thought of Obama popping into the district and touting his newest big-spending, tax-hiking jobs plan.

Just outside Danville, Republicans are running ads explicitly tying Virginia House of Delegates minority leader Ward Armstrong to the president — “If Ward Armstrong thinks you need Obama, do you really need Ward Armstrong?” — and the Democrat has felt compelled to immediately respond with an ad of his own. 

“Charles Poindexter is comparing me to Barack Obama,” Armstrong says in the ad. “That’s a stretch, Charles. I’m pro-life, pro-gun, and I always put Virginia first. That’s why I opposed the cap-and-trade bill. Sure we need renewable energy, but you don’t do it by raising electric rates.” Armstrong’s district consists of Patrick County and parts of Carroll and Henry County, all carried fairly easily by John McCain in 2008, and part of the city of Martinsville, which Obama carried with nearly 64 percent.

Obama’s Fredericksburg stop would have taken him to the district of incumbent Democratic state senator Edd Houck, whose district Republicans consider to be winnable territory because of a strong candidate, former U.S. Army Ranger Bryce Reeves.

Last week Houck sent Obama a letter, expressing frustration over the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s denial of Virginia’s application for individual assistance for those affected by the August earthquake.