We are in a fresh round of declinism — understandably, after borrowing nearly $5 trillion in less than three years and having very little to show for it. Pundit strives with op-ed writer to find the latest angle on America’s descent: We are broke; we are poorly educated; we are uncompetitive; we have gone soft; our political institutions are broken; and on and on. The Obama administration does its part, with sloganeering like “reset,” “lead from behind,” “post-American world,” and America as exceptional only to the degree that all nations feel exceptional.
This is not new. In the late 1930s, the New Germany and its autobahns were supposed to show Depression-plagued America how national will could unite a people to do great things. After all, they had Triumph of the Will Nuremberg rallies; we still had Hoovervilles. They flew sleek Me-109s; we flew lumbering cloth-covered Brewster Buffaloes. We, the victors of a world war, were determined never to repeat it; they, the losers, were eager to try it again.
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In the 1950s, Sputnik and the vast spread of Communism through the postcolonial world were supposed proof of the efficiency and social justice of Communism and the rot of capitalism — the inevitable denouement of the 20th century. Sputnik soared, even as our ex-Nazi scientists could not seem to make our rockets work. They had Uncle Ho and Che; we had Diem and the Shah. Their guys wore peasant garb and long hair; ours, sunglasses and gold braid.
By the 1970s and 1980s, Japan Inc. was the next new paradigm of the post-American world. Even American “experts” lectured us on the need to adopt Japanese-like partnerships between corporations and government. They made Accords and Camrys; we made Pintos and Gremlins. We played golf at Pebble Beach; they owned it.
As Japan faded, the next great hope followed in the 1990s when the EU captivated the American Left. The Europeans’ loud moral declarations, their pacifism, cradle-to-grave entitlements, trains à grande vitesse — all of that was what a backward America should strive for. They crafted the Kyoto Agreement; we drove gas-guzzling Tahoes and Yukons. Their strong Euros bought in New York what our weak dollars could not in Paris.
Where are all those supposedly post-American systems now? Fascism was crushed; Communism imploded; Japan is aging and shrinking; the European Union is cracking apart. But, of course, there is China, which, we are told, is the next new replacement for America — a country with enormous demographic problems, a reputation for crude diplomacy and an outlaw approach to international commercial agreements, censored media and a complete lack of transparency, vast inequality, environmental catastrophes, and no stable political system to transition a rural peasantry into a postindustrial affluent citizenry. No matter — our jet-setting elites still whine that they have shiny new airports; we have grungy LAX and JFK. They have sleek bullet trains; we, creaking Amtrak.
In this era of American debt, rancor, pessimism, and declinism, we should reflect on what the United States still does far better than anyone else — and why that is.
Recently, the British magazine Times Higher Education rated the world’s top 400 universities. Seven of the top ten — Cal Tech, Harvard, Stanford, Princeton, MIT, Chicago, Berkeley — are American. Even a nearly insolvent California hosts four of the top 13 — more than any nation except the U.S. itself. While American K–12 education cannot turn out students who achieve top rankings in math, science, and language, our university system still remains by far the best in the world, training a global elite in the American way of engineering, math, science, business, and medicine. In fact, the world’s diplomatic corps is beginning to look like an American college reunion. This week, the Greeks appointed a new prime minister, Lucas Papademos, a former Harvard professor. And the newly appointed Libyan prime minister, Abdurrahim el-Keib, is a former electrical-engineering professor from the University of Alabama.
Seven of the eight battleships sunk or badly damaged at Pearl Harbor had their keels laid prior to 1915. The Battleship Indiana was already launched in April and plans for the Missouri class were on the drawing boards. The Missouri and the New Jersey together had more than sufficient fire power to engage the 60,000 ton Yamato as a pair and could have sunk it. The Missouri exchanged fire with a Japanese battleship at Leyte Gulfin 1944 and decimated the Japanese ship. The Missouri was the first design to incorporate the effects of Eletonmagetic Interference on hull superstructure and antenna design. Five of battleships from Pearl were refloated, rebuilt and upgraded to serve as artillery pltlatforms suporting D-Days in the Pacific and the D-Day in Europe. The designs for the Hellcat and Corsair were in the works as well as the P-51 which needed to marry up with the Rolls Royce Merlin engine of the Lancaster to become the greatest piston engined fighter plane of the war.
The twin tailed P-38 was already in service in 1939. The Gato class submarine was just entering service. Einstein had written the most important letter of the 20th century to FDR. In the Darkest Hour of December 7th the tools and designs for regeneration and victory were already there. The rise of the phoenix encapsulated.
I don't think Missouri ever exchanged fire with a Japanese battleship. At Leyte Gulf the modern battleships were chasing carriers with Halsey and then split off under Lee's command to return to Leyte Gulf, too late since the Japanese fleet had retreated.
The current carrier situation requires real thought. Chinese shipbuilding capacity dwarfs the small, remaining U.S. industry. I don't doubt that after a few false starts and miscues China could build a carrier fleet well matched against the current US fleet. But carriers may not be major component of naval power in the near future. And, it remains difficult for me to define why China and the US should become involved in naval competition. China will dominate East Asia soon through its economic heft and there is nothing we can do to avoid this development.
On naval matters, I assume the fleet will be reduced if only for budget reasons. I am reaching a view that we don't need 10 or 11 amphibious groups. It has been a long time since the Marines had to carry out a major, contested amphibious assault.
Meanwhile in China, their real estate bubble is bursting and rather excessive debt levels are coming to light. Action of local governments are showing to be opposite of what the central government wanted, and the number of demonstrations against various government actions have been increasing.
Meanwhile the US is exporting chop sticks to China, they ran out of suitable wood.
This is the best essay Dr. Hanson has ever written. It should be engraved in stone and placed on the Washington Mall, to be read by generations to come.
What will be most interesting to witness, and I hope I live long enough to see it, is the disintegration of China, of the EU, and of the oligarchies of the Middle East. These are all looming, and all will contribute to the death of "globalism" as both a cultural and an economic force. America will be the only nation left standing as an economic, cutural and political force.
True, but I think Steyn is more laying out how things could go if the trend radical Dems and Obama have the country on aren't stopped. And while I agree w/ VDH and share his optimism and faith, no country is immune from self-destruction. That doesn't mean that it can't resurrect itself from the ashes. BUT - there are always inflection points in a country's history wherein one path led to success and sustenance and another to either ruination or decline.
Why would anyone think that the US is immune from that which destroyed Greece, Rome, British eminence in their time. Don't! The greatest threat of all is always hubris.
As Ben Franklin said, "a Republic if you can keep it". Thanks for this essay. I will share it with my children to read with hope concerning their future and that of the United States, the best country in the history of the planet. We and they need to work to keep it just that.
If you think that the World today mirrors the World of the 1930's, 1970's or 1990's, you are in for a very rude shock.
Facts are stubborn things, and an uncontested fact is that America's share of global gdp has steadily declined. America is never going to dominate the World like she did after the Second World War.
That is decline.
Another issue is the almost religious belief that only Americans are capable of innovation and the rest of the World is genetically impaired in that regard. America's research universities and Nobel prize winners are lagging not leading indicators - i.e. Nobel prizes tend to reward work done twenty years ago.
Look at the graduate schools in Science and Engineering. They are dominated by Indians and Chinese, many of whom are going back home to innovate. That should point to the kind of competition America will face in future. Both IBM and GE have moved a substantial amount of their R and D effort to India and China.
"America's share of global gdp has steadily declined. America is never going to dominate the World like she did after the Second World War. That is decline."
Is it? The fact you do not consider is that the decrease in America's share of global gdp directly coincides with the spread of American institutional influence. This does not strike me at all as mere coincidence.
The false premise you begin with is that America can be measured as gdp or any other material standard. This is incorrect and that is the point of Mr. Hanson's article: Our greatness is defined by our liberty, not by our material abundance.
But the best ones are staying here, if they can. Particularly the Chinese students, who would rather work for themselves, instead of for the greater glory of the party. Many of the H1 visas are being issued to Indian and Chinese nationals.
It's a wonderful essay by Mr. Hanson. But Menelik makes very good points, too.
I am cautiously optimistic about the return to more conservative government, BUT... some of the problems we've allowed to fester will retard our growth for not just years - decades! The pension mess is only starting, and it will strangle our cities' and states' finances for decades. It is connected to the public employee union problem, which is only three or four decades old, and only shows slight signs of being addressed. If today we decertified all public employee unions and brought pensions into alignment going forward, we would still have several decades of strapped local governments paying out obligations already incurred.
And if those two weren't enough, consider our schools. They produce enough bright, ambitious kids to populate the top universities, but they also let 40% drop out in urban areas. That's also been going on for decades, and if we fixed it tomorrow, would still fail for the next six or seven years. If it takes a decade to fix, we can look forward to fifty more years of a massive uneducated underclass.
And we don't have 50 years to wait. Yes, China has problems, but they will have the world's largest economy in 10 years (see the Economist calculator). God bless him, Dr. Hanson is optimistic and correct that we are in the top spot in many ways. But the direction of events is going against us.
I wonder if the education problem is less what they're learning but rather what skill they're developing. Take the idea that having skills like persistence, maturity, social intelligence, etc. are as or more important than the exact topic of study. The implication is that students could study paint drying and as long as skill acquisition is prioritized they will turn out to be better students, thinkers, and citizens than what comes out of the factory they call public education.
I wonder if the education problem is less what they're learning but rather what skill they're developing. Take the idea that having skills like persistence, maturity, social intelligence, etc. are as or more important than the exact topic of study. The implication is that students could study paint drying and as long as skill acquisition is prioritized they will turn out to be better students, thinkers, and citizens than what comes out of the factory they call public education.
This is the best article I have ever read from Mr. Hanson. It should be reprinted and made required reading for every high school and college student in the country. Liberal politicians want us to believe we are in decline and only they can rescue us from the terror of oblivion but this article serves as a great counterweight to their vision of a black future. Thank you Mr. Hanson for reminding us in the tradition of Ronald Reagon who we really are.
All of this is impressive, but like a man without a firm soul will come to nothing if we do not deal with the greed, the moral and spiritual bankruptcy that corrupts the core of the American character. You cannot be great without integrity.
