Must Republicans choose either Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney for their presidential nominee?
A wildly imaginative political junkie might say, “Maybe not.”
In an essay for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, senior columnist Rhodes Cook observes that the first four contests — Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida — will bind only 115 delegates, out of 2,282 total. In fact, “heading into Super Tuesday [March 6], only 15 percent of the GOP delegates will have been chosen,” he notes. To win the nomination, a candidate needs a majority, or 1,142 delegates, and it’s possible that states with later primaries won’t follow their early cousins’ lead. For a dark horse to triumph, however, he or she has two options: Either win enough delegates in the run-up to the convention, or emerge victorious from a brokered convention.
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THE RUN-UP
The challenge with starting late is that the filing deadlines to get onto many state ballots, ranging from New Hampshire’s to Georgia’s, have passed. As a result, Bradley Smith, former chairman of the Federal Election Commission, explained to National Review Online that he would advise any potential candidate, “Start filing as fast as you can.”
But a good number of deadlines haven’t passed yet, and Smith believes a late start isn’t fatal. Voters will be more forgiving to a savior candidate who answers the call at a crucial moment. “They know you didn’t compete in these early states; they’re not going to say, ‘Oh, you didn’t do well.’”
Moreover, the Republican National Committee has designed this year’s primary to take longer. It is penalizing states that hold their primaries before March, such as Florida, by eliminating half of their delegates. And those states that hold their primaries in March will have to award their delegates proportionally, further enhancing a dark horse’s ability to pick up delegates. Whereas Gingrich or Romney would clean up in winner-take-all states, a freshly announced (and relatively unorganized) candidate could win at least some delegates in a proportional state. And those accumulating delegates could build momentum before the convention.
Smith wonders whether the RNC will actually carry out its threat. With the wayward Sunshine State, for instance, Smith speculates, “Republicans might say, ‘We will have to win Florida, so shouldn’t we seat their delegates?’ There will be a jockeying of rules.”
Jim Bopp, committeeman for Indiana, insists the RNC will follow through on its threat; the party penalized Michigan in 2008 for this very offense.
Even party members aren’t expecting a quick finish. Priscilla Rakestraw, committeewoman for Delaware, whose primary is on April 24, says, “I’m not the least bit unhappy. Delaware may well be in this mix.”
Cook notes that there’s an opening for a dark horse in the hiatus between the voting in Florida on January 31 and the primaries in Arizona and Michigan on February 28. An articulate candidate with a strong organization could make his opening bid to voters in that window.
Rakestraw adds, “I wonder every day what Chris Christie is thinking as he’s watching this back and forth.”
For the desperate candidate, there’s always a write-in campaign. The cynic might laugh, but if voters can spell Murkowski . . .
There could also be a favorite son candidacy or two.
Christie has endorsed Romney, but if Romney went down, he could possibly carry NJ and have some delegates to bargain with at the convention.
As I see it, the GOP establishment wanted the primaries pushed up so they could lock down Willard Romney as the candidate before anyone else had a chance to get any traction. After all, it was his turn.
Maybe a brokered convention would be a dream, but dreams still come true on occasion. However, I would like to hear from someone with the chutzpa to name some of the potential dark horse candidates. Because right now, this Reagan conservative is unenthused with either of the front runners.
You are good... Romney is the BROKEN GOP machine candidate. they are treating the regulated process as their priory asset, no different than BO treats the USC. "Change the rules and force voters' hands." This makes me ALL the more against the Romnodroid.
(aside) my captua was "do unto others' but left out the "as you would have them do unto you..."....in terms of the broken GOP machine candidate, i take that to mean "screw them before they have time to catch up.'
Inspiringly hopeful article. If the Rep. machine didn't have such a 'gender identification disorder'--- Michelle Bachmann--yes, a republican conservative, SMART, articulate woman would be a GREAT dark horse candidate. If nothing else about the current Rep. smackdown sucker punched me with such a startle--it has been the relegation of women to sit in the back of the campaign bus.
I would pick the best, most honest, conservative out there....instead of these two...IF given the choice....
Former Governor Sarah Palin
3 fiscal years as Governor
6 fiscal years as Mayor
4 fiscal years in City Council
1 fiscal year as Oil & Gas Commissioner
18 fiscal years as Small Business Owner
The ONLY person out there that has 'actually exposed crony corruption' and DID something about it.
Vetted? You betcha....24,000 emails clears the malarkey about her ability and style in governing effectively, and with 93% bipartisan support.
Sorry, I was a Palin fan until she quit as governor. If you can't finish as governor of Alaska, you have no business in the white house. quiters need not apply.
"Never entrust power to anyone unwilling to give it up."
You obviously have not researched why Palin gave up power to Lt Gov Sean Parnell - who was then reelected in a landslide.
She said at the time, "Politically, if I die, I die."
She knew voters, such as you, who don't do their research would forever write her off.
Politics did not motivate her decision.
I bet you would have said the same thing when she stepped down as head of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission too. And yet by so doing she revealed high-level corruption in Alaskan GOP politics.
"Fans" don't so research. So you are correct that you were a fan of Palin. And not a supporter of her positions and record.
I like Sarah as a cheerleader, but not head of the coaching staff. Her quitting as Gov. was a gamble, and that part i don't hold against her. Politics are a gamble.
But there are two componenet in play here: one rallying the troups, and the other in charge of the war-room. I don't see her in that second position. Maybe in time--but not right now.
Palin did say there is still time for candidates to come and go. She also said that she was not a candidate "at this time" when she said no. And she is not endorsing any one.
The question has puzzled me for some time. On almost every issue and on their actual records, in what way are Romney, Perry, Santorum, Bauchman, etc and indeed any of the other 'possibles', such as Daniels, Christi, etc--in what way are they superior to Palin?
There is one more thing your forgot.....SHE QUIT.........I am an active duty member currently serving in the Arabian Gulf and I do not want a CINC THAT QUITS. When done once it keeps getting easier......no way would I ever vote for a QUITTER even if she has all the conservative qualities that I like in a candidate
Now we have Republican establishment figures openly admitting the wishful thinking that we have a brokered convention? Because why? Because they will then get to make the final decision, that's why. The "plan" of nominating the perfectly packaged candidate (Mitt Romney) is starting to unravel, and it is time to consider every potential alternative since the stupid people seem not to be accepting the statements of annunciation coming from the usual suspects.
Don't they realize that the primary process is designed only as entertainment for the hoi polloi? And that the real decisions are made by their "leaders" in the party and in the media? Well, now they admit that they have a "plan B", and all they need to do is make sure that Gingrich falls short of the 1,145 delegate mark, then voila', we cut some deals, scratch some backs and order is restored to the process. Business as usual at the RNC.
OK Lex, you who sit in judgement on all candidates. I haven't heard anywhere that Romney's turn is next. He joined the ranks as did Gingrrich, Paul and Bachmann. Maybe Newt's time is now, a really old, tired re-run of the GOP that has more baggage, flip-flops and bad moral behavior than all the candidates combined, incuding Cain. I, too, am tired of the re-run speeches of yours, why Romney is so bad. I would love to have seen Gingrich work with the liberal Mass legislature for 4 years and get anything done, bad or good.
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