Political junkies, take heart: A brokered convention is possible, if improbable. Using Rhodes Cook’s delegate count, I’ve made a spreadsheet that tabulates the results of different primary outcomes. If you use some imagination — but not too much — you can allocate the delegates in such a way that no candidate wins on the first ballot.
To secure the nomination, a candidate must get “a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention,” according to GOP rules. Cook predicts there will be a total of 2,282 delegates*, so a candidate needs 1,142 votes to win. Here’s a not-impossible outcome: Mitt Romney wins 1,131 delegates, Newt Gingrich gets 954, and Ron Paul wins 181.
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In this scenario, which is roughly based on current polls, Paul wins the Iowa caucuses with 25 percent of the vote. Romney places second with 20 percent and Gingrich third with 15 percent. After winning only 10 percent of the vote each, Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum drop out of the race. Next, Romney wins New Hampshire, but with only 30 percent of the vote, as a newly invigorated Paul and a slowly rising Jon Huntsman grab 25 and 15 percent of the vote respectively. Realizing the jig is up, Huntsman suspends his campaign. Afterward, Gingrich triumphs in South Carolina with 50 percent of the vote as the anti-Romney forces coalesce around him. (Rick Perry, meanwhile, drops out, after finishing with a disappointing 10 percent in the Palmetto State.) Gingrich follows up that victory with a 55 percent win in Florida, solidifying his status as a major contender.
In other words, the race comes down to Romney, Gingrich, and Paul. Romney and Gingrich are the main contenders, but Paul wins about 10 percent of the vote in the primaries and 20 percent in the caucuses, where his dedicated followers are especially effective. (There’s some historical precedent to this speculation: In 2008, Paul won 17 percent of the vote in the Alaska caucuses and 18 percent of the vote in the Maine caucuses.) Unlike in 2008, however, Paul actually wins some delegates, because GOP rules now mandate that states that hold primaries before April distribute their delegates on a proportional basis. Moreover, the especially early states, including even New Hampshire, lose half their delegates as a penalty for holding their elections before February.
Romney wins northern states, such as Vermont, and Gingrich wins southern states, such as Tennessee. Conservatives in states Romney won in 2008 abandon him for Gingrich, decreasing his victory margin. (Let’s say he wins the Alaska caucuses, but only by 41 percent, for instance.) After April 1, when the winner-take-all primaries begin, Romney cleans up: He wins all the votes of big blue states such as New York, California, and New Jersey. But Gingrich holds his own, scoring strong wins in Pennsylvania and Ohio. When the delegates assemble in Tampa, no candidate has a majority.
Yes, even this implausible scenario has caveats: For it to work, the early primaries’ delegates would have comply with the election results, though there’s no legal requirement for them to do so. In states such as Iowa and Arizona, delegates aren’t bound to vote for the candidates who win their states. Second, included in these delegate counts are the state-party chairmen and national-committee members, who also are allowed to vote however they want. Third, various surprises could throw it off. In Louisiana, for instance, if no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote in its primary, its delegates go to the convention uncommitted. Fourth, some delegates eliminated from the convention by the early-primary penalty may not stay eliminated. If all that stands between a candidate and the nomination is a state’s full number of delegates, it’s not inconceivable that they could push the party to drop the penalty.
In other words, my scenario is pure speculation. But with this spreadsheet, you can come up with your own scenarios. I don’t expect there to be a brokered convention, but it’s just plausible enough to keep interest in a candidate not currently in the field alive.
— Brian Bolduc is an editorial associate for National Review.
*Editor’s note: The Republican National Committee has recently revised its delegate count. Mississippi and Nebraska will each get an additional delegate, bringing the total to 2,286. As a result, a candidate will need 1,144 delegates to win the nomination.
And a brokered convention would have the additional impact of sending coverage of the convention and national interest in the Republicans through the roof... a big opportunity for Republicans to educate voters about the issues... it would also drive the Obama campaign nuts because they won't know who the nominee is and won't be able to get their spin machine going on the campaign for personal destruction.
The number 1 conservative in American today is Sarah Palin.
Sarah is the Conservative Star Quarterback on issues, and values.
Spare us all the 'she quit' routine when Obumbles QUIT after only 1/3 of his term as Senator and accomplished nothing while there.
Sarah helped our party received 60,000,000 votes in the last election.
Sarah was instrumental in our 2010 Midterm Election blowout, where she campaigned and raised money for those Tea Party candidates that STOPPED OBAMA SPENDING.
Sarah Palin may not talk the way you like, or look the way you want, but she is honest as the day is long.
CRONY CAPITALISM is the cancer of our Government and the People who run it.
Who in the nation has THE GUTS to expose and remove 'their own' corrupted members?
Recognizing how frontally Romney has had the machine Republicans behind him, doing his dirty work to make him look clean i WELCOME a brokered convention.
We have yet to be shown the Romney reality vetting; just puff pieces--reminds me of
BO's vetting. Too many string pullers in the puppeteer arena.
Can't wait to see if Vegas B-aire supercampaign comes through iwith ads for Gingrich. Brokering would work force the Rom-hump to get dirty himself, vs have everyone else do it for him. I find it interesting one of his biggest supercampaigners is a higher up in the Mormon Church. I remember when it took a boatload of NON-Catholics to elect JFK. No longer the case, i guess... Try to post that, NR.
Go rent or TiVo next time on TCM "The Best Man" with Henry Fonda and Cliff Robertson.
Originally about Democrats (with Robertson playing a combination of Joe McCarthy and an "evil JFK")....it would be a good portent of what a GOP brokered convention would be like. (Less Romney as likeable or intellectual as Fonda's character....and his "BIll Russell" was known for affairs, so that would be more Newt).
Throw in Newt offering Veep to Ron Paul for his delegates, pushing him four votes over Romney. The presumptive "winner" is now in 2nd place and you've got Newt's ego combined with Paul's "poison" for neo-cons and Drug Warriors. But nobody with enough to win.
Newt goes to Romney to offer him Veep, backstabbing Paul. Or vice-versa, with Mitt tempting Newt to do it for VP. Then the Paul people threaten to bolt and go 3rd Party when they catch wind of it.
Lotta "ifs"...but the one end-game of any such scenario is obvious. President Obama wins 40 states and 15+% of the popular....minimum.
For decades. I have been hearing talk about a "brokered convention". It seems to me that those who make such speculations have missed a fundamental point about the nominating system we have lived under since 1972. No one has asked the question who would the brokers be at such a convention. That is to say, who can control blocs of delegates and negotiate for their votes. Under the old system, we had party professionals who did command the votes ot such blocs. But we did away with them and replaced them with the current chaos of primaries, where unrepresentative voters in unrepresentative states decide for the rest of the country who will be the nominees of the major parties.
As someone who doesn't qualify as a political junkie, but does spend a lot of time around the fringes of it (mostly by reading the corner), I've seen a lot of references to a brokered convention recently, but don't really understand the full significance or ramifications of one. Can someone give me a short explanation of what it means and what the possible outcomes are? Thanks.
This is such a depressing article. I remember the GOP 1976 convention with nostalgia. Both candidates were honest Americans and well respected.
The order of business was abruptly interrupted when Nancy Reagan entered the convention hall to wild cheering that lasted for about 30 minutes as she smiled and gently waved to the crowed from her balcony seat. After order was finally restored Betty Ford entered the hall and produced an equally entertaining scene.
However, this article is a flash-forward to a convention with the choices Romney, Gingrich, and elevates Ron Paul as a player. God help the GOP. What a choice. My prayer to such a debacle would result in total gridlock. And then the delegates vote Paul Ryan as the GOP candidate so we will have a President who can truly save this great nation. (I can dream can't I?)
I think I am going to have a drink and check the television listing for a chick movie to forget that I ever read this article.
Merry Christmas NRO readers.
I like brokered conventions and remember the 1976 GOP convention with a sense of nostalgia. Both candidates were patriotic Americans and well respected gentlemen. And, in 1976 we had a sane and abbreviated primary election process without state parties aggressively bidding to opt for a system of monetary and political gains, the dreadful situation we now endure. And, in 1976 we were blessed with a media that had earned its respect and reported facts, not personal bias.
And the convention was worth watching where we did not have to endure senseless and unending speeches from political hacks who bought time to the podium from cash in the pockets of the nominees to advance their causes into the party platform. There actually was an entertainment value which made conventions prime television viewing.
On the second night in Kansas City, the convention order of business was abruptly interrupted when Nancy Reagan entered the hall to take her seat in the balcony. Her entrance produced near riotous cheers from the floor and, as she approached her seat, smiling and gently waving to the floor, each time she took her seat, the delegates escalated the cheers and applause, requiring her to stand again and acknowledge her adoring supporters. This continued for what seemed to me nearly a half-hour. And, our well-respected national network reporters dryly commented “We have never seen anything like this before”. (Oh, for the days of a real media).
Once order had been restored, Betty Ford entered the hall and, yes, here we go again. The candidate’s wives controlled the convention hall for a least an hour. Priceless!
And now we fast forward to 2012 as previewed by Brain Bolduc. A choice between a Mitt or a Newt, with Ron Paul elevated to a player. And Brian says it doesn’t take a great deal of imagination for this to occur. And I feel a migraine is just a few minutes away.
At this point, I am going to let the imagination take control. Bring on the brokered convention and let the delegates deadlock without compromise. And, in the end, let them hijack Paul Ryan and nominate him as their candidate. And, in the wee hours of morning, Ryan reluctantly and graciously accepts their nomination.
And, Americans, in the wee hours of morning are dancing in the streets, for, now, it is apparent the Obama will be history. And, he knows it.
RNC critic,
If you look at the spreadsheet, you'll see that he's right on which states are proportional and which WTA, excepting Florida, which he should fix.
The biggest issues I can see favoring Newt are Ohio and Pennsylvania, an area that Mitt does well in (look at the various Mitt clone govenors and senators; no state that likes Robert Portman can be against boring white bread actually getting the job done finance guys), along with New Mexico (a heavily Mormon state).
The biggest area that Newt might pull ahead of this prediction on is California. This may be part of Mitt's focus on immigration, as California is the only state where that is likely to be a decisive issue favoring him.
If a brokered convention is such a great idea, what will happen to the (supposed high plurality) of people who actually liked and voted for the frontrunners in the primaries? This sounds like a really awful outcome.
Don't forget that the new "great white hope" coming out of the convention would have no money and no national organization. This would be a recipe for disaster.
In response to "History Buff", I don't think Paul would be tempted by a Veep offer.
What I have thought, though, is something that draws on a comment Bill Bennett made to Sean Hannity. While I don't think he was speaking in the context of a brokered convention, he suggested Romney or another frontrunner offer Paul a nomination to Chair the Federal Reserve and "be done with it." I would suggest he'd prefer this to Veep. The primary threat to this would be a lack of credibility. Even were only a nomination (not a confirmation) promised, a wink-and-nod campaign from the Executive to push against confirmation (making the nomination subterfuge) might be thought a problem, especially in light of the UK Conservative Party actively campaigning against the Alternative Vote sought by its own coalition partner.
I find Ron Paul more attractive than Romney, but a Romney candidacy with a VP that shores up ObamaCare Repeal commitment credibility (i.e. Bachmann) nominating Paul to chair the Fed is something I find more appealing than either candidacy. With Paul pushing the Fed to act more like the ECB, rollover threat would force Congress to escalate fiscal repair.
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