Conservative opponents of Mitt Romney are nervous. If Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich continue to battle for the primary’s non-Romney, non-libertarian slot, the former Massachusetts governor could coast toward the GOP convention as the indubitable front-runner.
Maybe, supporters of both candidates say, the other will come to his senses and drop out, uniting Romney’s opposition behind their guy — the true conservative who can beat Romney and President Obama.
But if the past week offers any clue, it’s this: Don’t bet on it.
Advertisement
Tensions between the Santorum and Gingrich camps are growing. Santorum advisers are irked at Gingrich’s public attempts to nudge their candidate out of the race; Gingrich aides are frustrated by Santorum’s quixotic determination, his unwillingness to cede the anti-establishment mantle.
Earlier this week, in a Fox News interview, Gingrich verbalized his inner circle’s agitation. “The longer conservatives stay split, the harder it’s going to be for us to [beat Romney],” he said. “We risk not being able to beat Obama unless we get a conservative. I have to win the nomination.”
Santorum confidants chuckle at Gingrich’s declaration. “Gingrich’s stock is falling, and we’re picking up a lot of his people,” says John Brabender, Santorum’s senior strategist. “People know that we need an alternative to Mitt Romney. But Gingrich had his shot in Florida, and he failed.”
Brabender predicts that during the month of February, with only one debate and a slew of caucuses, Santorum will assert himself as the viable Romney challenger. And if Gingrich continues to issue hubristic statements, conservatives will sour on the former speaker.
“Gingrich has been trying to push us out, and people find it offensive,” Brabender says. “We’re not going to tell him to get out of the race; that’s a personal decision.”
The timing of Gingrich’s comments — they came around the time Santorum was tending to Bella, his hospitalized daughter — inflamed the fractious relations between the two campaigns. “The mere fact that he was doing it smells of political opportunism and people found it problematic and troubling,” Brabender says.
“Beyond that, I won’t talk about Gingrich,” Brabender says. “I will compliment Governor Romney and Congressman Paul. Their campaigns personally reached out to us [regarding Bella]. None of that was expected, so I won’t criticize anybody for not doing it. But that was very sincere and gratifying.”
Speaking on background, a handful of Gingrich advisers acknowledge that they could have “played the weekend message a little better, been a little more careful about angering Santorum,” as one surrogate puts it. Other Gingrich backers say that as Romney surges, there is not enough time to wait, that Gingrich must begin to showcase his strengths and Santorum’s shortcomings.
Still, from what NRO can glean from behind-the-scenes chatter, Gingrich will not forcefully tell Santorum to bow out. Instead, in coming days, select Gingrich aides will reach out to major Republicans who are close to Santorum, delicately asking them to chat with Santorum about his path ahead, what’s best for his family, and about the need to beat Romney.
February will see Nevada, friendly to Mitt; Maine, possibly Ron Paul's best shot at winning one; Colorado + Minnesota; Missouri, where Gingrich isn't on the ballot; Arizona; and Michigan, also friendly to Mitt.
Where Santorum can break through, likely, is Missouri, on February 7th.
Frankly, the more Gingrich spews venom, the better Santorum looks.
Santorum = Jimmy Stewart = "Mr. Smith Goes to Washington." We need "Mr. Smith" to go back to Washington. Mr. Straight Arrow.
Personally, I suspect that legislative experience for an immediate post-Obama President could be rather important. Knowing the ins-and-outs of how some recent utterly awful laws might best be legislatively undone could be vital; knowing how Executive Orders might be used to help freeze poisonous regulation while medium-term legislative fixes were pursued in parallel - that sort of experience is likely to be of much more use in turning the US around than "business work-out" experience.
Whereas companies are not countries. Command and control work in a corporate setting, but not so readily in a republic. So private sector executive experience is no substitute for experience of how a legislature actually operates day-to-day.
So, should the battle for the R nomination be between Santorum and Romney? I strongly suspect it should be. And what sort of experience is likely to be more important if the general election is won? Business and executive experience, or awareness of how legislative deals can be struck and vital goals aachieved?
The “Newt had his chance in Florida” talking point is ineffective and Santorum’s team should drop it.
While Newt did lose to Romney by 14 percentage points in Florida, Santorum was another 19 percentage points behind Newt!
I like Rick Santorum, but he is the Mike Huckabee of this year. He has absolutely no shot at winning (and he knows it). BUT, he CAN influence the election! His continued campaign only hurts Newt and ensures a Romney nomination. If he drops out now, who knows? With Santorum out, Romney would have to continue to shoot himself in the foot (love to fire people, don’t care about the poor, etc) at a higher rate than Newt to lose it, which is unlikely. With Santorum in, it is Romney v. Obama.
I lost all respect for Huckabee in 2008 with his block Romney strategy. The same could be true for Santorum if he stays in just to block the path of another candidate knowing he can’t win.
Link, you say that Santorum's continued campaign only hurts Newt as if that's a bad thing.
I've noticed even here on this board that, among those have gravitated toward Santorum there are many for whom Romney is now second choice. Gingrich is out of the question. It is he who "has absolutely no shot at winning" (only he probably doesn't know it because it's not in his nature to know such things).
Not only that he "can't win" but that he *knows* he "can't win" and is therefore acting selfishly. I don't see Santorum that way at all. He is the little engine that could (probably not the image he's seeking).
Query, though, whether Gingrich has it in him *ever* to act unselfishly in such a situation.
Why can't Santorum play to show enough punch to make a good VP? He is young enough to progress through that route. He is principled enough to be the guy that can bring the social conservatives into the Romney campaign to retire Obama. He is also principled enough to be a team player and not just "use" Romney to get in position for the future. He is many times more substantial than Dan Quayle, of much finer character than Jack Kemp, brings passionate followers (unlike GW Bush), and does not compromise the squeaky clean image that makes Romney seem safe to women and church goers.
At some point, the party has to come together stronger than any one of the candidates would be alone. Newt is almost certain to take his ball and go home when Romney finally beats him. There is no gain in Rick enhancing that outcome by abandoning the field.
Staying in a race does not have to be just about destroying others. It can be about principles. But the Newtsters are so smitten by adverbs and adjectives that they can't imagine motivation based upon subjects and objects. If this was a seven game world series, Santorum might be down to Newt 3-1, but Newt's got no pitching left and Rick should not concede before Newt wins a fourth.
I am supporting Romney. But if my choice were Gingrich or Santorum, I would pick Rick as he is a true conservative. Gingrich, who reminds me of the Stay Puff Marshmallow man in the movie Ghostbusters lumbering down central park east as the "destroyer", quite frankly lost me the day he sat on the couch with the repulsive Pelosi. If the question is what would Ronnie do, I can assure you he would not have done an ad with the wicked witch of the west!
Should make for an interesting conversation Newt will have with the Santorum backers-
"Look, guys, Rick is fundamentally and profoundly unable to win the Nomination, that's obvious from the fact he lost Florida and South Carolina."
"But Newt, you lost Iowa, and Rick won it, and you lost Florida too?"
"Well, uh, that's irrelevant in a fundamental and profound way. Obviously I'm the only one who can successfully debate Obama in the Fall."
"But Newt, you blew the debate in Florida and lost all your momentum from South Carolina?"
"But see, that is fundamentally and profoundly irrelevant. Obviously social conservatives will rally to me, not Mitt or Rick."
"Because they'll feel comfortable supporting a guy with three marriages and two adulterous affairs in his past, rather than two guys with one marriage and not a hint of sexual scandal behind them?"
"Look, it's fundamentally and profoundly obvious. Any intelligent person, such as myself, can see how I am the superior candidate."
The "what's best for his family" caught me. How can anyone put that across with any delicacy? I imagine "That's a nice daughter you have there. I sure wouldn't want her to endure the stress of her father continuing to run for office. Something *bad* might just happen."
I'd suggest that Gingrich and Santorum actually need each other at this point because neither of them has the resources to seriously contest every state on his own. But together they can each contest half of them and force Romney to campaign everywhere. For example, in the Feb. 28 primaries Newt could focus on Arizona while Rick emphasizes Michigan. On Super Tuesday maybe Newt challenges in the southern states of Georgia, Oklahoma & Tennessee while Santorum stakes his claim in Ohio, Idaho, North Dakota & Alaska.
If both of them can do well with such a strategy, they might be able to accumulate enough delegates between them to deny Romney a majority at the convention. If one does noticeably better than the other, then he'd have a pretty good argument for the other dropping out.
You are pretty smart -- good suggestion. Of course that would require Newt to admit he needs the help of a mere mortal and that just isn't going to happen.
You are pretty smart -- good suggestion. Of course that would require Newt to admit he needs the help of a mere mortal and that just isn't going to happen.
Gingrich is fundamentally and profoundly narcissistic. Who says Santorum's supporters would go to Gingrich? Gingrich is no more conservative than Romney. Gingrich is undisciplined and unpredictable.
Santorum should stay in. Why should the real conservative jump ship for the pretender?
Just when I think NRO cannot stoop any lower in their continuing campaign vendetta against Newt Gingrich, NRO debases itself even further. This time by employing Time/Newsweek left-wing media photo tricks.
Please note the article's accompanying spliced side-by-side photo image. The spliced photo of Rick Santorum is a sunny, bright, frontal view of Santorum smiling out to the viewer. The image of Gingrich is dark and shadowy with Newt's back to the viewer and has the appearance of Newt giving an over-the-shoulder sneer.
Honestly, NRO didn't have any photos of Newt smiling and glancing to his left (or reversing a photo of Newt smiling and glancing to his right)?
There is no excuse for this pathetic, sophomoric, intentional and underhanded effort to subliminally demean Gingrich!!
I guess I'm stunned that NRO didn't instead choose to repeat its depiction of Newt in cartoon form.
What happened? Did Warner Bros. threaten to sue over your Newt parody of Marvin the Martian?
Quoting Mike Murphy as a "top GOP Strategist" is emblematic. He is a failed strategist, a moderate/progressive and a key cog that defines the "stupid party".
What has important race has Murphy ever won? The 2010 landslide was completely in spite of Murphy. He didn't lift a finger...and in fact attacked the TEA Party as he was shilling as the familiar "token" Republican on his many "Meet the Press" appearances.
If I was a Conservative candidate, I would use Murphy...listen to what he advises, then do the exact opposite.
Santorum is still behind Newt in Nevada. He has voted against right to work for the prescription drug bill etc. ect. When he was in Washington he was a go along to get along Repubuplican .I remember Newt standing up against Bush the first read my lips tax increases. I never remember Santorum taking a stand on anything. Nro is trying to kill newt by using Santorum.
The biggest mistake the non-Romney, supposedly more conservative wing of the party, made in the first place was choosing the unpalatable, self-destructive Gingrich. Too bad they listened to Rush and Sarah and didn't get behind a guy that people can actually listen to without wanting to throw a shoe at the television.
There is only one adult in the GOP primaries, Santorum. The fact that anyone is even considering the Moron Romney or the moron Gingrich proves that most of the GOP are also morons, and that supposed "pragmatists" without principal who either don't know what's right or refuse to chose it, having been brainwashed by religious bigotry and the liars promoting it into thinking Santorum can't attract a consensus of Americans, but if this is true (fools elected 0 after all) that we may well have seen the end of our republic being governed by responsible adults. Our Founders warned that apart from the Christian faith our nation was fatally doomed, and truer words were never spoken insofar as our day of fatuous depravity is concerned. God save us all.
Follow
