For Rick Santorum, Missouri’s primary is likely his last opportunity to regain momentum.
Newt Gingrich isn’t on the ballot, thanks to his campaign’s decision not to file. (Missouri’s caucuses, held beginning in mid-March, will determine the state’s delegates, so the primary is a non-binding “beauty contest.”) That leaves Tuesday’s primary as a showdown between Mitt Romney, Ron Paul, and Santorum.
Missouri GOP strategist Jeff Roe calls the election a “referendum on Rick Santorum,” saying the Missouri primary is a test for Santorum to see if he “can match his narrative that he’s the one who can beat Romney and consolidate conservatives.”
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“This is a chance for him to prove his narrative is true,” Roe says, adding that he thinks Santorum needs to either clear the 50 percent mark in the state or beat Romney by double digits to make his case.
While one poll shows Santorum ahead right now, it doesn’t give him that kind of win. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted late last month showed Santorum in the lead at 45 percent, 11 points ahead of Romney and 32 points ahead of Paul. His net favorability/unfavorability margin among Missouri Republicans was 42 points. That gives him a significant edge over Gingrich (plus 20 points), Romney (plus 10 points), and Paul (negative 29 points).
“I think Santorum will carry Missouri,” predicts Missouri Republican strategist James Harris, noting the state’s conservative and pro-life leanings. Another factor that could boost Santorum: In southern Missouri, evangelicals form a considerable chunk of the GOP base.
Norm Baxter, an RNC committeeman from Chesterfield Township in St. Louis County, agrees that there is new interest in Santorum in his conservative-leaning area. “A growing number of conservatives in this part of the state have shown a real interest in Santorum, and they think that he brings the conservative credentials that we need,” Baxter says. “I can sense the momentum behind him is beginning to increase and you’re seeing a surge for him.”
Meanwhile, Santorum is buoyed by the fact that he’s the only candidate to make a play for Missouri. Red, White, and Blue Fund, the super PAC behind Santorum, is running ads. Unlike Romney and Paul, Santorum has campaigned in the Show Me State in recent days.
If Santorum does win Missouri, the challenge will be for him to present it as a meaningful win. The reason the primary has nothing to do with choosing delegates is that in 2010 the Republican National Committee required certain states, including Missouri, not to select their delegates before March. Last year the Republican legislature passed a bill that would have moved the primary from February to March, but Democratic governor Jay Nixon vetoed it (not because of the primary-date switch, he said, but because of other provisions in the bill).
So the party switched to caucuses, which do not require legislative sanction, and scheduled them for March. But a bill to eliminate the February primary failed on a tie vote, and the result was that Missouri taxpayers are being forced to fund a $7 million election that is essentially a state-run opinion poll.
Missouri politicos doubt that the caucus results will mirror the primary results, or that there will even be any attempt to make them do so. Six weeks is an eon in this primary cycle, and some of the candidates may have dropped out by then. Even if they all remain in the race, the fact that caucusgoers can support Gingrich is sure to affect the final results.
But for Santorum, struggling to make the case that he’s a more viable not-Romney candidate than Gingrich, Missouri still offers a valuable opportunity.
“When we go head to head with Governor Romney, we can beat him,” Santorum said in Missouri on Friday, according to NBC News. “When Speaker Gingrich goes head to head with Governor Romney, he can’t.”
“The polls show it,” Santorum added, “and it will show on Tuesday.”
“ 'This is a chance for him to prove his narrative is true,' Roe says, adding that he thinks Santorum needs to either clear the 50 percent mark in the state or beat Romney by double digits to make his case.
"While one poll shows Santorum ahead right now, it doesn’t give him that kind of win. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted late last month showed Santorum in the lead at 45 percent, 11 points ahead of Romney and 32 points ahead of Paul."
Santorum needs to clear 50 percent OR beat Romney by double digits, and one poll shows him with an 11-point lead over Romney, but this poll "doesn't give him that kind of win"?
What?
Is 11 no longer considered a double-digit number?
I think some of the criticism about Trinko's pro-Romney bias is a bit overblown, but this article is great evidence that there *IS* a tendency to prefer a particular narrative -- in this case, Santorum's not going to win this non-binding primary by enough of a margin -- over the facts, even when those facts are stated outright, clearly and with no room for subjectivity.
Santorum says he can win head-to-head vs Romney and Gingrich can't? Based on what? Gingrich already beat Romney in a much larger state than Iowa, where Santorum merely tied Romney. And he was lucky at that, surging at just the right time. Santorum then tied Gingrich in NH, and has scored significantly below him in every following contest.
So the only place (after Iowa) where Rick Santorum can stage a comeback is...a state where Gingrich isn't even on the ballot. That's a STRONG candidate, all right. Too bad he didn't have that option in Pennsylvania in 2006 and Bob Casey not even be on the ballot.
All of these Republican dolts will still be fighting among themselves while Obama is being sworn in. They need to quickly get their priorities straight and go after Obama, instead of their fellow Republicans.
Why hasn't Santorum been "vetted"? Where are his tax returns? When he was in the Senate, he was a big government spender. Why haven't we heard about that? Why is he getting a "pass"? When he left the Senate, he had very little but now he is supposedly worth $3 million dollars. How did that happen - lobbying? Let's hear more about Santorum!
Santuckabee gets a pass because he is Romney's stalking horse. He is clearly in the race to steal as many votes from Newt as he can to give Romney the win.... Maybe Mitt offered Santuckabee the VP spot, maybe he offered to pay off all his campaign debt?
You are so right, Kitty. He has not been considered a factor until now, but his time is coming to answer some questions. It is easy to be the calming voice of reason when your record has not be analyzed. All those years in Washington have turned up some rather interesting facts, which will soon be exposed. We don't need another Senator as President, the one we have right now has been a disaster. Give me a Governor any day, their experience is so much more suitable for the job.
You said right in your article that this primary is nothing more than a beauty contest. There are no delegates at stake! Why does anyone care how Santorum does? It has no bearing on anything. I am not even sure why the media even bother to cover it.....Santorum BADLY needs to get out of this race and let the Newt-Romney battle be decided in the next couple of months. The debate about the direction our party takes is important and having Santorum in at the moment simply adds clutter and makes it easier for Romney to build a big lead.
laughable premise. Mr. Santorum is still in the race because America is a basically polite nation. Same as why Whoopie Goldberg is considered an actress. We just don't kick people out of things when they should be shown the door.
Humoring Mr. Santorum in his zombie walk through the primaries has no purpose, except for the makers of sweater vests.
The influence of Mr. Vander Plaats in Iowa, helped Santorum tremendously...
The original declaration of an 8 vote loss in Iowa didn't make any sincere difference. Romney and Santorum basically tied in Iowa (we will never know who truly won with 8 missing precincts), in a State in which many said Romney would never have a chance after 2008. If Rick were a serious viable offering, he would absolutely have done better after Iowa. But Santorum is a weak Candidate, and it shows in his vacant voting support in NH, SC, Florida, Nevada, etc.
By contrast, Romney is very competitive in every State, a sign of a very strong General Election Candidate. Romney is clearly the best offering at this time.
Rick entered Congress just 5 years after entering Law School, stayed in the Washington for 17 years, and even made a career peddling influence after his historic loss in PA. Santorum is just another Beltway Politician who lacks essential executive experience, private sector ability, genuine economy clout, even robust influence in his home State of PA.
On top of his lackluster record for the Presidency, being a career Washington Politician, Rick led the way for massive earmarks, debt ceiling vote increases, opposition to "Right to Work", even Medicare Part D (which he suddenly has run away from - telling us in this Primary he made a mistake). Rick Santorum, like the ugly Newt Gingrich, is simply far from the ideal. Rick even advertises his desire to see contraception bans, and Federal effort to regulate free expression on the internet.
The attempt to push Santorum as something he is not, will only sink reputations further. Rick's petulant nature is vivid, his self righteous indignation sounds very much like a spoiled Senator who has no grasp he offers endless contradictions between his true existence and his marketed image.
Some in the lucrative Conservative Industry are still desperate to try to build a fantasy about a tiny select few, which is far from healthy, while they sell debasing garbage for others on the sound side. It isn't Conservative. The entire shell game is missing essential basis, being pure emotive folly.
Santorum's staying in the contest reminds one of 2008 when a certain candidate with no chance of winning stayed in the contest and gave the nomination to Big Mc. Perhaps "the establishment" is encouraging the same thing this time around.
Santorum is the most fundamentally conservative of the field. He is consistent with his views even if it doesn't set well with some, unlike Gingrich who travels the country attempting to appease every cross section of the voter base. Santorum can make the crucial connection to the middle class voter base that Romney will likely struggle to mobilize in a national election. Santorum will stay on message while providing the unmistakable contrast the Republican's need to give American voters the distinct choice for President they deserve.
Romney is a weak campaigner, the loser in most of his races, who only wins by spending huge sums, something that won't help him against Obama. Gingrich has self-destructed twice so far, and looks to be going for number three. And both these fellows carry plenty of baggage.
So why not get behind the true conservative in this race? Here are Santorum's ratings:
American Conservative Union -- 88%
National Right to Life Committee -- 100%
Americans for Tax Reform -- 95%
National Tax Limitation Committee -- 92%
U.S. Chamber of Commerce -- 88%
League of Private Property Voters -- 94%
Santorum has a really bad record as an economic conservative. He has supported ear marks on a number of occasions. He also has a terrible record on trade. He has supported a number of tariffs that would raise cost on consumers. He sponsored a bill that would raise tariffs and then given those tariff revenues to a special interest group. External Link
"Santorum's" Last Stand" The only thing he has "won" so far is a non-starter caucus in Iowa which didn't count for anything because they didn't count anything right. No one actually knows who won Iowa - and I'm a R conservative who believes that it's unfair to say the he won when there's no actual count available.
I supported Gingrich for quite a while, until he proved himself to much of a pandering politician (Moon Colony?!?!). William F. Buckley held to the philosophy of supporting the most conservative candidate who would win. There is now only one person who fits that description - Rick Santorum.
Voting for Santorum in Missouri today. Just saw a Gingrich ad on Fox, waste of money in this market. Find the Rick-haters somehow inspiring, he must be a real threat to Newt this month. Rick may have more delegates than Newt by Super Tuesday. Newt should just bow out now, for the good of the country and all.
Ron Paul or Rick Santorum are the best men in the race.
Who are all these nasty people? They sound like Newt supporters. Yeah I love global warming, Pelosi on a couch, bags of money from fannie/freddie, amnesty, Dede Scazofava and being a CFR DC insider for 30 years whilst being a serial adulterer. If anyone should drop out - Newt should. I don't like Mitt but at least he takes his marital vows seriously....like Rick and Ron.
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