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Three Lessons from the ‘Beauty Contests’
The storyline changes again.

By Jim Geraghty


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Did Tuesday’s results matter? Nowhere near as much as the results from Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida mattered. But primary campaigns rarely reach stasis; momentum shifts, ebbs, and flows, and the trio of contests yesterday offered a few hints that the storyline will change once again.

Rick Santorum is on the verge of overtaking Newt Gingrich as the anti-Romney alternative.

Santorum began this contest as the man of the hour, the little engine that could in a sweater-vest who challenged and beat the much-better-funded Mitt Romney . . . and yet he has, at the moment, an entire three delegates committed to him. (Iowa’s delegates to the national convention will formally be selected at a state convention on June 16.)

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Santorum won no more than 17 percent in any of the subsequent contests, until last night, and he finished with a disappointing 10 percent in Nevada’s caucuses Saturday. Gingrich has declared, with increasing loudness and insistence, that the former Pennsylvania senator should leave the race to unite conservatives behind his candidacy.

Thirty-five days after the Iowa caucuses, Rick Santorum needed a win — even a purely symbolic win — to remind Republicans nationwide that he was still a serious contender. Tuesday night, he got it. Missouri was called for him first, shortly thereafter Minnesota followed, and in Colorado he looked likely to finish no worse than a close second. His two wins were landslides.

For conservatives hoping to unite behind one Romney rival, Missouri offered a tantalizing look at what the race would be like if Gingrich and Santorum were not splitting that segment of the GOP electorate.

Gingrich was not listed on the Missouri ballot; he and his campaign said that they did not bother to qualify for it because they deemed the nonbinding contest irrelevant. Cynics may notice the Gingrich campaign’s inability to qualify for the ballot in Virginia and wonder just how deliberate their approach to Missouri was.

In the reduced field, Santorum didn’t just win, he thrashed Romney. With 90 percent of precincts reporting, Santorum led in every Missouri county that was reporting results.

Rick Santorum adviser John Brabender told CNBC’s John Harwood: “Missouri tells me that in a clean one-on-one against Romney, we beat him.” Expect to hear a lot of this argument from Santorum and his supporters. You’ll also hear quite a few assertions that Santorum has won three contests to Gingrich’s one; the former speaker and his backers will furiously dispute that any of tonight’s results count as legitimate wins.

“We doubled him up in Missouri and Minnesota!” Santorum exulted in his victory speech last night. He added, “In Massachusetts, your votes were particularly loud tonight!”

Of course, it seems hard to imagine Gingrich voluntarily leaving the race; last night, he told Wolf Blitzer: “I’m certainly in it all the way to the convention.”

Santorum’s support surged dramatically in the final days before the Iowa caucuses, as polling indicated the former senator had a chance to win and would not be regarded as a “wasted vote.” Perhaps the largest obstacle to Santorum’s campaign is clearing that psychological threshold nationally; if so, last night and its consequent surge of funds and volunteers should go a long way.

The next binding, delegate-determining, real contests come February 28 in Michigan and Arizona. While both states will receive intense attention from the remaining campaigns, expect Gingrich and Santorum to go toe-to-toe in Arizona.

The RNC’s efforts to clean up the primary calendar seem only to have muddied things further.

In 2008, Iowa held its caucuses on January 3, a wildly early date. Previous primaries had been held no earlier than January 19 (2004, 1976), and the primary was held in February from 1984 through 1996. In response to the perception that the nomination process began way too early, and to prevent too many states from frontloading it, the RNC ruled that states that held their contests before March 6 would lose half their delegates. (Iowa managed to avoid losing delegates because its caucus was not officially binding; as noted above, the delegates will be picked at the state convention on June 16.)

Five states decided that an early calendar slot was worth losing half their delegates: New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Michigan.

Colorado and Minnesota emulated Iowa by exploiting the loophole in the RNC’s rule. The penalty applied only to states that selected delegates to the convention. Any state could hold two contests — one, a “beauty contest,” before the March 6 threshold, and a second that selected the actual delegates after it.

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COMMENTS   83

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DAH
   02/08/12 06:10

Turnout is down because most conservatives are not happy with this field. Ron Paul is nuts in foreign policy, Newt Gingrich is unpredictable, Rick Santorum is a big-government-type social conservative, and Mitt Romney isn't conservative at all. Why vote if there's nobody to vote for?

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josh brueggen
   02/08/12 13:56

A dencent analysis except the part about Pauls foreign policy. I think you may not even know what it entails if you summarily label it "nuts", so I'll enlighten you. Paul wishes to reduce our worldwide footprint as much as possible. This will be accomplished by bringing troops and weapons here and stationing them stateside (kind of a BRAC for the world, and reverse BRAC for the US) so there is no cuts in manpower or weapons, and a greater capacity for defense. A nice silver lining to this plan is that we save about 15% simply on maintenece costs since maintaining foreign bases is more expensive then maintaining them stateside. His only other stated foreign policy position is to cut off ALL foreign aide. Since we provide aid to almost everyone, on many sides of many issues our current policy is equivalent to pouring gasoline on a fire. I'm not sure how these policies can be determined to be "nuts" perhaps someone could enlighten me....please have your facts straight before you reply though.

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   02/08/12 20:35

Retreating to Fortress America and waiting for the next attack or oil embargo or ally to fall is nuts. Creating a power vacuum to be filled by interests hostile to ours is nuts. Believing that Paul would not reduce the number of soldiers, would not dangerously cut defense spending is nuts.

Sticking your head in the sand in a dangerous world is nuts.

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   02/09/12 03:51

I think most understand the nuts and bolts of his foreign policy as he's presented it, we just don't think it's a good plan, ergo *nuts*. That maybe an unfair reduction, but it does a good job reflecting the lack of faith many have for his ideas.

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dragon12
   02/08/12 14:26

Why vote? Do you want Obama again? that's why you vote to vote him OUT OF OFFICE.

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Rob Seabrook
   02/08/12 06:29

Can't imagine why Ron Paul's people are freaking out. Eight precincts in Iowa go missing, lights mysteriously going out while votes are being collected in Iowa. Nine hundred dead people voting in S.C. and secret counting locations that take three days to verify low turn out votes. Nothing to see here people. Just trust us that everything;s on the up and up.
Not to mention that the MSM and just about every major magazine has a virtual blackout of anything to do with one of only four remaining candidates.
I have to tell you, being from Canada, I find the fact that a country as advanced as the U.S. not being able to guarantee the veracity of their election results to be absolutely astounding.
I don't even wonder any more how many of your elections have been fixed over the years. It would be too many to count. And you people call yourselves an advanced civilization? What good is material wealth if a person has no real say in who leads them. Might as well go bomb the crap out of Iran. That will make you feel better.

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Bill Wilde
   02/08/12 11:44

It's a CONSPIRACY!! The Trilateralists and the Biderbergers are "fixing" yet another American presidential race! Rob Seabrook, the Paulnut from the Great White North exposes it all. Thanks a ton, eh! Cordially, Bill

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BHunter
   02/08/12 13:14

Go drink a Moosehead and make some maple syrup, eh. Despite the merit of anything you might have to say, when Americans want advice from it's northern suburb, we'll ask for it (but don't wait by the phone--you do have phones by now, don't you?). Just kidding (or am I?). South Carolina wouldn't have had 900 dead people vote had Obama's Department of "Justice" not blocked our voter ID law. OK, now seriously, go shovel some snow, you hoser. Eh.

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Paul Blivitz
   02/08/12 18:56

There's patriotism, and there's brainless patriotism. "Despite the merit of anything you might have to say, we don't want to hear it from foreigners" is brainless patriotism.

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Bill Wilde
   02/09/12 17:29

Well if any of our friends from the Great White North have good advice, I'm anxious to hear it. But unless you see merit in this moronic conspiracy theory, I'd say it was fair game for a little humour. Cordially, Bill

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   02/08/12 06:39

It must be distressing for Lowry, Rubin, Noonan and other pundits to see NROmney get beat. I expect the "conservative" press corps, who seem as out of touch as their beloved candidate, will bring the hammer down on Santorum this week.

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   02/08/12 06:55

The title indicates three lesson to be learned. Questions: Who are the students of those lessons? Who is the instructor of those lessons? Answers: Students: NRO, media water carriers, and politicians. Instructor: The American voter! The group of students have the print, the microphones, and the cameras. The instructor has the numbers! Read it and weep; or read it and learn!

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Fartman
   02/08/12 07:43

A little sour grapes from Jimbo! Your boy lost last night be gracious.

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Max Power
   02/08/12 07:55

Republicans say they want to defeat Obama, but they sure don't act like it. Do you really think in a time of 8% unemployment, trillion dollar deficits, assaults on civil liberties, and endless wars that contraception and gay marriage will be winning issues in the general election?

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History Buff
   02/08/12 08:19

Let us imagine a circus...with a troupe of clowns performing for the crowd. And somebody slips the clowns some LSD (No sorry, Governor Romney, not LDS). Then they arm the hallucinating clowns with chainsaws on full revv, unstoppable and glued to their hands. Then half-starved lions are thrown into the ring and several hornet nests are distriubted across the sawdust. And finally, Coloradan, Missourian, and Minnesotan audience members set fire to the tent and block all the exits....

that is the 2012 Republican Presidential primaries.

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BHunter
   02/08/12 13:24

Perhaps you're being overly optimistic.

Captcha (cat-cha?): "the cat lady," FTW.

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   02/08/12 08:21

The Republican Circus continues all the while a sitting President's poll and approval numbers keep rising higher and higher for no good reason for other than he is not a part of the House Divided Republican Party. For the anti-Establishment crowd keep calling all others RINOs, Moderates, Liberals to make yourself feel better to win a battle and lose a war.

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   02/08/12 12:19

Mark, please check out the Hillary Clinton vs Hussain Obama primary of 2008 before you spout an irrational expression of Rinoism. Henceforth, Rino's are banished from the kingdom of conservatism!

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Palin Fan
   02/08/12 13:23

We're not electing a dog catcher; this is for the presidency of the United States. If you think that a robust debate is too much to expect from a candidate, then sorry, you're out of luck. If Romney wants to be prez, he needs to fight for it.

This ain't no coronation. Its an election.

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Abe Lincoln
   02/08/12 18:51

I actually insist on very high standards for dog catchers.

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