In a town where bipartisan budget chicanery has been raised to an art form, President Obama’s latest budget proposal should be hailed as the da Vinci of fiscal obfuscation.
The president claims that his budget proposal reduces debt by $4 trillion over the next 10 years, combining $2.4 trillion in spending cuts with $1.6 trillion in tax hikes. Almost none of that is true.
Let’s start with the idea that the president’s budget would reduce the debt. That is true only using Washington math, under which a smaller increase is actually a decrease. In reality, the president’s budget adds $6.7 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years, bringing it to nearly $25.5 trillion by 2022. That would be more than 100 percent of our GDP.
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And those spending cuts? The president actually counts $681 billion in cuts that were agreed to last year as part of the deal to raise the debt ceiling. Shouldn’t there be some sort of statute of limitations for how long you can claim credit for cuts that you have already made? And it should probably be shorter for cuts that you fought against every step of the way. The president also counts as a cut the $741 billion we will save from not occupying Iraq over the next 10 years, and from not being in Afghanistan a decade from now. Considering that we were never going to spend that money in the first place, that seems like slightly dishonest accounting. After all, think of all the savings we can claim by not invading Syria. And, finally, $595 billion of the claimed budget cuts is actually interest savings resulting from not having to borrow for the other phony cuts.
On the other hand, the president’s budget does include plenty of new spending. For example, there is $476 billion in new spending over 10 years for transportation projects, including the president’s favorite boondoggle, “high-speed rail.” There are also the usual bailouts for profligate state governments and teachers’ unions, including $30 billion to build more schools and $30 billion to hire teachers. Another stimulus anyone?
Overall, the president would increase federal spending from $3.8 trillion in 2013 to $5.82 trillion in 2022. That might not be as big an increase there might otherwise be, but in no way can it be called a cut.
The president isn’t even honest about his tax proposals. In the speech announcing his budget plan, President Obama devoted several paragraphs to a renewed push for the so-called Buffett rule, a new 30 percent minimum tax on the rich, based on the misleading claim that Warren Buffett pays a lower tax rate than his secretary. There is only one small problem: The president’s budget does not actually include any revenue from the Buffett rule. In fact, the budget provides no clue as to when or how such a tax might be implemented. The Buffett Rule isn’t even listed in the document’s summary of revenues and outlays. A cynic might believe that the Buffett Rule has more to do with campaign rhetoric than an actual budget plan.
Instead, what the budget does contain is a renewed call for tax increases on people and small businesses making as little as $200,000 per year. In addition, there’s the usual panoply of tax hikes on energy products, businesses, investment, and pretty much anything else the president can think of. The budget also helpfully points out that 2013 is the year in which most of the new taxes under Obamacare will take effect. Overall, the president would increase tax revenue to 20.1 percent of GDP. That’s a huge increase from the current 15.4 percent, and higher than the post–World War II average of 18.0 percent. Tax increases of that magnitude cannot help but slow economic growth and job creation.
But even if the president were to get every penny of the tax hikes he wants, his budget would never balance. The closest he would ever come would be in 2018, when the deficit would be only $575 billion. After that, deficits begin rising again, reaching $704 billion by 2022.
Fortunately for the president, he stops counting after 2022, about the time that the costs of entitlements such as Medicare and Social Security really begin to kick in, and his proposed budget does almost nothing to reform these troubled programs. One only has to look at the upward trajectory of both spending and taxes at the end of the budget window to see that president’s budget leaves us on the road to future bankruptcy.
Appearing last Sunday on Meet the Press, the president’s chief of staff — and former budget director — Jack Lew, declared that “The time for austerity is not now.” Judging by the president’s budget proposal, it’s not ever.
"...president’s budget leaves us on the road to future bankruptcy".
Problem is, voters don't know what this means to them personally.
They do know what cutting budgets would mean - we see it in Greece.
The election depends on Conservative candidates and commentators making the case for austerity.
So far, we're losing badly. Last night on FOX the arguments were:
"...We're about to hit the wall"
"...We've got a serious debt crisis"
"...We're about to go off the cliff"
"...We're in mortal danger"
Sorry, guys, you gotta do better.
Tell the people what will happen to THEM.
You gotta get far more personal and graphic if you expect to win in November.
SUPPLY-SIDE ECONOMICS... Overcoming this evil is the key to making America whole and good again!
Supply-side economics is the PIVOTAL ISSUE of this election…
Supply-side economics, popularized by Ronald Reagan, was also called Voo-doo economics by George Bush41, and is now often known as trickle-down economics. It is nothing new; the people of the Middle Ages were very familiar with supply-side economics; there it was feudalism. Unfortunately, supply-side economics has put us on the road/descent back to feudalism. It is a total fraud!
Think of our future as an economic choice between supply-side economics and demand-side economics. Demand-side economics is what made America great! Demand for product and services came from a large, economically healthy, and growing middle class, and that demand created jobs and economic well-being. Almost everyday the business channel CNBC reports that the consumer is 70% of the US economy. This simple, straightforward fact and truth is proof of our demand-side economy.
But George Bush43 devastated consumer demand and the great middle class with 8 years of supply-side economics and tax giveaway to the top 1% that now have 40% of America’s wealth. Today, the middle class is still mostly flat on its back and unable to spend and create the necessary demand for all types of goods and services. Further confirming the need for demand, US corporations now have a record $2 trillion in supply-side cash, but they are still NOT hiring because they see no demand growth for their products and services. No corporation (one exception: Apple/Steve Jobs) creates jobs without first seeing demand. DEMAND = JOBS!
America became great because of its bottom-up economy, NOT top-down or trickle down. The richest Americans can’t grow jobs and our economy by trickling money on us. Bush43’s years of economic stagnation and mediocre job creation proved that! With the worst job creation record of any President in the last 70 years, Bush43 added only 3.7 million net new jobs over 8 years. In contrast, Clinton added 22.7 million jobs over 8 years.
Can we ever overcome the craziness of this Republican mythology? As George Santayana put it, "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it!”
Currently we spend 24-25% of GDP but collect in taxes 15% of GDP. Most reasonable people agree that spending should be about 19-20% of GDP. That means that both spending should be cut with around 5% of GDP, and taxes should be raised – also with around 5% of GDP. Thus, any serious deficit plan should contain similar amounts of spending cuts and tax increases. There is nothing political in this – it is just simple math – if we want to have any meaningful military + any social security + any medicare – there need to be both tax increases and spending cuts of similar proportions.
At the end of Clinton there were budget surpluses - now there are huge deficits. Excluding the one time bailout deals (under both Bush and Obama) there are 4 reasons for these long term deficits:
1. Bush Wars and defense spending (under Clinton defense spending was $350-400B/year - under Bush it doubled, in Obama's 2012 budget - with all cuts and war endings it is still $750B).
2. Bush Tax Cuts - cost about $400B/year
3. Bush Medicare Prescription Plan.
4. Bush Recession. The Bush lax regulations of Wall Street led to over-leveraging, abuse of “creative” financial instruments such as “derivatives”, etc. etc.
It was not Obama's policies, but Bush's policies that directly lead to the current deficits.
If the US was to bring defense spending and tax levels - to the ones during Clinton - 2/3 of the yearly deficit will immediately disappear!