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Listening to the Syrian Resistance
Assad has created a humanitarian crisis — and a strategic opportunity.

By Clifford D. May


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Assad and Putin in the Kremlin in 2005


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Thanks to the marvels of modern technology, members of the resistance movement inside Syria were able to have a secure conversation last week with a small group of foreign-policy mavens in Washington, D.C. What they told us boils down to this: A revolution is under way. On one side is the dictator Bashar al-Assad, backed by Iran’s rulers, Hezbollah, and Vladimir Putin’s Russia. On the other side are ordinary Syrians, facing bombs and bullets with the kind of courage exhibited in Tiananmen Square. Meanwhile, those who should be their allies dither.

“Why is Syria not as important as Egypt and Libya?” asked “Muhammad,” one of the resistance leaders on the Skype call connecting the offices of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies with an undisclosed location outside Damascus. His comments were translated by FDD fellow A,mmar Abdulhamid, a prominent Syrian dissident who was forced into exile in 2005. “We are facing a killing machine,” Muhammad added. Indeed, the Assad regime is estimated to have slaughtered more than 7,000 Syrian men, women, and children to date. “We are not asking for any boots on the ground,” he added. So what do they want? Supplies, equipment, secure communications technology — and, yes, the means to defend themselves, their families, their homes, and their communities.

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Recent upheavals in the Middle East, mislabeled “the Arab Spring,” have so far brought change only to countries where those in power had been cooperating with the U.S.: Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen. By contrast, the 2009 uprising against Iran’s anti-American theocrats was brutally suppressed, while Western leaders lifted not a finger and said hardly a word. If Assad manages to remain in power, the lesson will be that it has become less dangerous to be America’s enemy than to be America’s friend.

This formulation, I suspect, goes a long way toward explaining Russia’s staunch backing of Assad. Putin is sending a message to his fellow autocrats everywhere: Moscow, unlike Washington, can be counted on when the chips are down.

The resistance leaders we spoke with sounded determined: They will not give up, even if it costs them their lives. But they also are frustrated: They are facing helicopters, armor, and artillery. They have only small arms — and not enough for all those willing to fight.

Muhammad called the diplomatic debate over Syria that has been taking place at the U.N. a “farce.” Another resistance leader — Abu Alnour is his nom de guerre — said that the Arab League also has proved useless and, besides, cannot be trusted. As for Turkey, Muhammad said it is “only capable of words, it seems.”

The United States continues to be seen as the resistance movement’s last, best hope because, Muhammad said, Americans are “the only ones who protect democracy and human rights in the world.  They are the only ones who actually do that. So we are hoping that they will review their position.”

What these besieged revolutionaries may not appreciate is how disillusioned many Americans have become. In recent memory, American power has been deployed to defend Kuwaitis, Bosnians, Kosovars, and, yes, Iraqis and Afghans. We did not necessarily expect deep affection in return, but we were hoping for better than the animus that is directed at us by so many in the Islamic world (an increasingly accurate label).

Some Americans have become skeptical of Muslims who claim to be democrats. Others have come to believe that while there are Muslim freedom fighters, they are too small a minority to be significant. Recent developments in Egypt, where Muslim Brothers and Salafis won an overwhelming majority of the votes in the recent elections — and now are holding hostage Americans who came to Egypt to assist with democratic reform — have reinforced such views.

All of which misses this point: Americans should support the revolutionaries in Syria based on strategic self-interest at least as much as altruism. Assad is an enemy of the United States. He facilitated the killing of hundreds of American in Iraq and arranged the assassinations of pro-Western Lebanese leaders who dared defy Syrian domination. 

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May: It’s Not the Arab Spring, It’s the Nahda



COMMENTS   13

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   02/16/12 08:57

If the Syrian rebels could demonstrate that helping them would provide Obama more votes in the November elections, he would be quick to come to their aid!

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cpc
   02/16/12 10:32

You forgot to mention (hoping by mistake) about brutal suppression of protesters in Bharain who happen to be Shia minority which has pro U.S. Sunni monarchy and home for one of the U.S. Naval fleets. Wonder what implications there are by not mentioning it since your theory that the Arab Spring seemed to have changed regimes only in U.S. friendly nations. Just curious!!!!

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   02/16/12 11:48

Why is it that the United States of America has to be involved in that entire area over there in the first place? Seems to me that a lot of this is driven by oil (which we need to get elsewhere instead of being slaves to Muslim Oil) and our being "held hostage" to Israel because of a bunch of Christian and Jewish religious fanatics. Rather a far cry from what the founding fathers had in mind for our foreign policy, don't you think?

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Mr. Mark
   02/16/12 14:25

Economic education continues to be woefully inadequate.

Oil is traded globally. The United States only gets somewhere around 16% of its petroleum from the Persian Gulf region (not that Syria is a gulf state - it isn't - but Persian Gulf production is the highest in the Middle East). The rest of the world, however, gets about 30-40% of their petroleum from the region. So, if you have interruptions to petroleum production in the Middle East, you will have worldwide increases in oil prices. Even the expectation of possible interruptions causes worldwide price increases.

It does not matter where you get your oil and natural gas - the price of petroleum products will still be affected by events in the Persian Gulf. And, as I mentioned above, we already get somewhere around 84% of our oil from places other than the Persian Gulf.

With regard to Syria, specifically, it is not a Gulf state, but it is, as the author has pointed out, an ally of Iran, which is the biggest threat to security in the Persian Gulf region. Iran and Syria seem to have developed a relationship initially via their mutual interest in affairs in Lebanon. This has now grown into a more broad-based relationship driven by the notion of "an enemy of my enemy is a friend of mine."

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   02/16/12 12:22

Cliff, Cliff, Cliff, c'mon now. So Syria is different? Let us say the revolution is successful, I'm sure the Syrian freedom fighters will all trade in their hijabs for white 18th century wigs and begin writing "We the People", right?

It seems to me, these assorted freedom fighters are able to snow the American media (that includes you in this case) and the U.S. government with the greatest of ease. For what it's worth, I predicted, the outcomes in Egypt and Libya, and I'm predicting the same outcome for Syria. Should we assist in toppling Assad, the new government would be an Islamic regime just as bad, or worse than Assad.

Ultimately, the result is the same whether we act or do nothing, an Islamic Republic, hostile to the U.S. The die is cast, everybody loses except the jihadists.

So what is the answer? That's just it; one does not exist right now. The U.S would be in an unwinnable situation in Syria should we stick our neck out again.

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   02/16/12 12:34

Why would Mr Obama help the Syrian revolution? As Mr May clearly shows, the overthrow of Assad is very much in America's best interests. Since Mr Obama is committed to opposing what is good for America, one confidently predicts that the US will not contribute in any way to helping the Syrian resistance. Not even from behind.

Pro-freedom idealists who have not yet figured out the Democrat US presidents, and Obama in particular, are their enemies, are just not paying attention.

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cpc
   02/16/12 13:55

Dear Dr. Roberts: If one takes your statement's background logic to it's natural logical conclusion which goes along the lines of "enemy of my enemy is my friend", you are willing to side with pro freedom Arab Moslem Idealists (when they dislike a president of U.S.A. who happens to be a Democrat)!!!!!

Kudos on your Myopia.

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Mr. Mark
   02/16/12 14:28

Obama is not trying to destroy America. He's doing it through incompetence. It only looks like he's trying to destroy it. He has a level of stupidity that is astounding that normal people have a hard time conceiving of how his actions could possibly the result of any other than intentional sabotage. To understand him, you really need to re-watch the old Peter Sellers Pink Panther movies.

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   02/16/12 13:07

You know, the Israelis could had these guys everything they need. Just got to find the right intermediary so it doesn't look like its coming from Israel.

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Eugene Dubnov
   02/16/12 13:12

"He facilitated the killing of hundreds of American in Iraq" - A pathological indifference of the US, both leadership and media, to its own soldiers murdered by all sorts of thug states. Nobody's punished, it's a free-for-all. Mubarak didn't have any American blood on his hands but he was brashly pushed out; Assad and the Iranian mullahs have been busy killing American troops for years, yet nobody's bothered.

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Mr. Mark
   02/16/12 14:42

But who are these folks we would be assisting?

Who were we assisting in Libya?

I've already listened to people try to tell me that the MEK in Iran (suspected of having killed Americans in the past) is really a bunch great guys that we should be supporting simply because they oppose the Iranian regime. I disagree.

In any case, you can't really make much sense of it all without much more information - information that will not be available in the open.

Finally, as soon as the U.S. gets involved in something, no matter how indirectly or low-key, you know that there will be people who feel (feel, not think) that we then have an obligation to turn the place into Normalville, USA through some sort of nation-building campaign. The American public doesn't have any interest in any such thing. All of that opinion-capital was spent in Iraq and Afghanistan. With the exception of the ever-dedicated COINistas, nobody has any interest in that sort of thing anytime soon.

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   02/16/12 19:16

Let the Syrians sort it out among themselves. Yes, the regime is guilty of brutality and massacres. But there's no credible indication that a new regime headed by the opposition would be any better, any more democratic or inclined toward Western standards of freedom. We have wasted billions of dollars and thousands of lives in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is not our fight.

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Miikeb
   02/17/12 07:09

Honestly, why would those Syrians tell you the truth? They want the US to come in and help put them in power. American Blood and Treasure are not unlimted resources that can be spent at will by gung ho presidents, and in that I include Obama and Bush.

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