There’s no disputing that Republicans are surly these days.
With the exception of South Carolina, turnout among GOP voters has been tepid. Hordes of commentators, me included, have argued at length that this apathetic grumpiness reflects a deep dissatisfaction with the Republican field.
Worse, many Republicans recognize that their cantankerousness over their choices makes things worse. It’s a vicious cycle. As George Orwell once wrote: “A man may take to drink because he feels himself to be a failure, and then fail all the more completely because he drinks.” A bad candidate can win with enthusiastic voters and a good candidate can lose with unenthusiastic ones. But a bad candidate with unenthusiastic voters is like a submarine with screen doors: a guaranteed wreck.
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Without minimizing the plight of the Republicans, there may be a glimmer of hope in a single overlooked fact: Democrats may have the same problem.
Generally speaking, Americans of all political stripes hate politics and politicians right now. Republicans are merely the focus of everyone’s attention because that’s where the action is. Everyone knows who the Democratic nominee will be. This gives Barack Obama all sorts of advantages. He can seem presidential and above the fray, he can raise money for the general election without getting bloodied by a primary challenger, and he can spend his time and resources unifying his party.
But unity and enthusiasm are not the same thing. Everyone in the family can agree to eat Aunt Sally’s leftover casserole, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to be excited about it.
Obama won in 2008 thanks to almost unprecedented voter enthusiasm, particularly among two key constituencies: young voters and black voters.
Take the youth vote. The whippersnappers cost John McCain the election. Obama won young voters by a two-to-one margin. If the voting age were 35, McCain would have won. Youth support was also a crucial source of energy for the Obama campaign, fueling all of the social-media buzz and burnishing Obama’s image as a change candidate in what was the mother of all change elections.
Almost four years later, the young people are less excited about Obama, and about politics in general.
Why? Because the “Great Recession” under Obama has been disproportionately brutal for younger workers. Last summer was the worst job market for young people since 1948. In 2010, the unemployment rate for college graduates 24 and younger hit an all-time high.
The youth unemployment rate is improving, but the mood of young people isn’t where Obama needs it. A recent Harvard survey found that a majority of 18- to 29-year-old voters believe the country is going in the wrong direction, and a plurality of young Americans believe Obama will lose.
Reminded of Admiral Jellicoe's comment before the British Grand Fleet engaged The Kaisers' Battleships at Jutland in 1916. "There seems to be something bloody wrong with our ships today. Full speed ahead"
Thanks for the positive look at things Jonah. Conservatives have a bad habit at only looking at the negative sometimes. It seems that because we consider ourselves a minority that sometimes we act like we're already defeated. I think your point here is well-taken. I for one, just don't see how Obama can win NC again, it flipped for him by a small margin and people were crazy for him back then. Now everyone is luke-warm towards him with some of my lefty friends even claiming he's not that liberal but he's actually center-right?! What a bunch of nonsense but if it keeps them unenthused and away from the polls, so be it. We're not guaranteed victory in November but I think our chances are much better than many conservatives are letting themselves believe.
I am beginning to believe many primary voters feel the way I do. It really doesn't matter who wins the Republican Primary, because we are going to support anyone (even a goat in a necktie) to oust the current President.
I wouldn't correlate low primary turn out rates with what will happen in the General.
The saddest thing about all this -- despite the misery he is bequeathing to the nation in the years to come -- is that Barack Obama sincerely believes he is doing a great job.
Indeed, under Obama, many have prospered. U.S. government employees -- all 2 million of them, with an average salary of $74, 403 -- are doing great. Public-sector union members are also doing fine. Crony capitalists, who fund the Obama machine, are doing spectacularly -- there's always an extra stimulus dollar for a backer of Barack.
In fact, most of this president's supporters of are doing swimmingly -- except, of course, the poor, who have gotten poorer. Then there are minorities, who have gotten substantially poorer, and the legacy media, which, despite having sold its soul in support of Barack Obama, is shedding viewers and readers by the millions.
Yes, it is true, some of us liberals think that Obama has governed too far to the right. We will still vote for him, since the alternative is nightmarish. He needs to start delivering on what he promised us. I recall all the right-wing pundits claiming that a vote for Obama is a vote for Socialism. Clearly the people have spoken, so where is my socialism already???
This almost sounds like a joke. Where is my socialism already? Really? OK, here's a few places you might look.
1. Public education
2. Social Security
3. Medicare
4. Medicaid
5. Obama Care
Not to mention the numerous regulations governing who can sell what to whom, such as mortgages, or who can build what and where, such as the Keystone Pipeline, or who can hire who, such as the Boeing plant in South Carolina.
Government interference and funding of the auto industry (Obama told the bondholders to take a hike), nationalization of the student loan industry, Destruction of private healthcare industry to compel membership in the "Co-ops" funded by government. an EPA bringing the private economy to its proverbial knees, the government "safety net" involving more Americans than ever before, seemingly indefinite unemployment compensation. Just a few examples off the top of my head.
I vote Republican but I have suggested nationalizing the oil industry and creating a national primary care clinic network. That doesn't make me socialist so much as it makes me a guy with an opinion on how to solve certain problems with an open ideology. The Stimulus Act and Obamacare had nothing to do with modernizing our infrastructure or improving health care. Those were power grabs - not solutions - not socialism. Only a political hack would say otherwise. So when you talk about "my socialism," it's impossible to know what solution to what you are talking about. Try opening up your ideology instead of referring to alternative ideas as "nightmarish."
Au Contraire carlosincal....wanting to nationalize the oil industry AND health care are clearly and plaining socialistic policy positions. Such policy prescriptions put government in sole charge of those respective aspects of our economy and life -- how could you claim otherwise?
Nationalizing the oil industry has to be the single dumbest idea I've heard since ObamneyCare was shoved down our throats. You'll probably want to nationalize the banks next.
Funny you should mention nationalizing the banks - that is exactly what Soros wanted Obama to do.
The only other person I've heard say they wanted to nationalize the oil companies was Maxine Waters. She was one of the interrogators during the Congressional hearings during the Bush term when gasoline prices skyrocketed and the oil company Presidents had to be drawn and quartered before the House.
How's the nationalization of the oil industry in Venezuela working out? Your proscription is a recipe for oil shortages and a dearth of investment in the oil sector.
Sean,
How many laws affecting 15 % of the economy needing to buy off senators to pass, using techniques that were dishonest to push it through congress, waivers to the privileged class, mandates, czars going around congress, regulatory agencies being granted power by the president after congress said no to his policy does it take for you to admit socialism? One bill after another ending up in the courts. You give a number of what a fair tax on all the people should be and not just yell tax the rich and give us class warfare as a national economic policy and roll your eyes and your question will be easier to answer.
I understand you still support Obama but Jonah's point is that although there are many like you, not as many will get out and vote for him. So Obama is actually vulnerable. Hard to say what will happen.
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