Mitt Romney snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in Michigan by unveiling a pro-growth, 20 percent tax-cut plan and by resetting his limited-government spending cuts and entitlement reforms. In other words, he delivered an economic-growth package. It served him well.
It may not have been the only factor in his victory last week, but it put him squarely in the voter zeitgeist. And it may be apocryphal on Super Tuesday in Ohio, where he has come back to dead even after being down double digits.
Now, if former Senator Rick Santorum had stayed on economic message with his tax-cut plan, he would have swept Michigan. But he unnecessarily wandered off the reservation. Women serving in the military; JFK’s church-and-state speech; the threat of ruling out contraception — by veering in these directions he completely undermined his economic message. And he lost because of it.
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The most important issue for Michigan voters was the economy, which polled 55 percent, while budget deficits came in second with 24 percent. Romney held an 18 point lead in both categories. Abortion, a proxy for social issues, came in third at 18 percent. As a pro-life social conservative I’m not here to diss the social issues. But the economy remains issue number one.
Of course, there have been improvements in the economic numbers of late. And the mainstream-media pundits are ready to hand the general election to President Obama because of it. But they’re way overboard on this game.
The public knows there’s a debt bomb coming from Medicare, and that this debt bomb could lead to a huge tax-increase bomb. In fact, Ben Bernanke just warned Congress that the economy could hit “a massive fiscal cliff” by January 1, 2013, as the Bush tax cuts and the payroll tax cut expire. This could knock GDP growth down to 1 percent.
And even with the recent economic improvement, which is threatened by surging oil and retail gas prices, the economic recovery still ranks as one of the lowest on record. GDP growth averaged 2.5 annually over the past two and a half years. Compare that to the Reagan recovery average of 6 percent growth over the same period and a postwar average of 4.6 percent.
I’m not here to badmouth the improving economy. I’m glad of it. It shows the resilience of free-enterprise business. But I am here to question the new conventional belief that it hands the election to Mr. Obama. It’s going to take more than that. It’s going to take an economic program that can resonate — such as the revitalized Romney plan.
Santorum the latest star in a rotating cast of "conservative nutjobs... First it was Bachmann, then whats-his-face from Texas, and right on down the road."
It's a sentiment that was echoed repeatedly by the crowds of supporters at Romney's recent campaign swing through Michigan.
This type of rhetoric is exactly what has earned him so many supporters in the GOP's waning moderate wing.
my worry about romney is that he talks a good game, but he has never played the game he talks.
you folks can go right ahead and believe romney. no one can or wants to stop you.
but romney's talk, romney's principles, and romney's plans to day could be completely different tomorrow or next week or next year. that is what the historical evidence on romney reveals.
there is no way to know what, if any, principles drive romney.
ron paul's economic plan is far superior, although it has extremely harsh consequences in the short term, to any economic plan put forth by the other three.
the usa is not going to survive if it keeps increasing the national debt. at the current rate of increase in the federal debt, the debt will be twice the gnp within a decade.
We must hope Kudlow less often picks market losers than political losers. Give credit where it's due -- Romney has proven his skill at losing elections. Is it three or four now?
Santorum the latest star in a rotating cast of "conservative nutjobs... First it was Bachmann, then whats-his-face from Texas, and right on down the road."
It's a sentiment that was echoed repeatedly by the crowds of supporters at Romney's recent campaign swing through Michigan.
This type of rhetoric is exactly what has earned him so many supporters in the GOP's waning moderate wing.
I think Mr. Kudlow has it exactly right: the deeper into the primaries we go, the more sure-footed Romney appears to be in terms of the number one issue of getting our national economy back on a growth track. His 20 percent, across the board tax reduction policy speaks more directly to the wisdom of supply-side economics, while Santorum's highly targeted prescriptions concerning family tax credits and a zero tax on manufacturing enterprises smacks of more government manipulation of the free market. Let's hope that Super Tuesday produces meaningful results, with our nominee basically decided. It is high time that we conservatives get about the business of defeating the most radical president in American history.
It's nice to have an article on NRO not about contraception, and about the real issues facing our country. I was beginning to think there were no serious people in the conservative movement anymore, just a bunch of malcontents with oppositional defiant disorder.
Santorum the latest star in a rotating cast of "conservative nutjobs... First it was Bachmann, then whats-his-face from Texas, and right on down the road."
It's a sentiment that was echoed repeatedly by the crowds of supporters at Romney's recent campaign swing through Michigan.
This type of rhetoric is exactly what has earned him so many supporters in the GOP's waning moderate wing.
It's good to hear Romney might be learning as he goes, but I think it is impossible to underestimate how weak a candidate he will be in the general election. He really doesn't understand the issues that are driving the tea party movement and is incapable of tapping into that movement's energy, which is what he will have to do to beat Obama.
Ultimately, the tea party/conservative base knows in its heart that even if Romney wins, he will do nothing to repeal Obamacare because he is just too much of a ruling-class Republican. And that is why they won't have the energy to vote for him.
Unfortunately I think Larry gives the U.S. electorate too much credit when he writes, "The public knows there’s a debt bomb coming from Medicare." The vast majority don't know anything, except what the mainstream media tells them and they're certainly not going to warn the public about a complex economic issue they probably wouldn't understand anyway.
We're in for 8 months of "things are improving", "Obama's agenda is slowly fixing all of Bush's damage" and "we can't return to the Republican economic policies that dug us into this hole." It's going to be a tough fight to take back the White House, which is ridiculous considering the current state of afairs and Obama's agenda. On a level playing field, the Republicans could nominate a manikin and it would win; but it's never been a level playing field.
I'm going to try to post this again, even though the "comments" section at NRO works about as well as Obama without his teleprompter: Here we go:
Mr. Kudlow,
It's good to hear Romney might be learning as he goes, but I think it is impossible to underestimate how weak a candidate he will be in the general election. He really doesn't understand the issues that are driving the tea party movement and is incapable of tapping into that movement's energy, which is what he will have to do to beat Obama.
Ultimately, the tea party/conservative base knows in its heart that even if Romney wins, he will do nothing to repeal Obamacare because he is just too much of a ruling-class Republican. And that is why they won't have the energy to vote for him.
This argument would have been more believable had Kudlow made Arizona the focus. Michigan is Romney's home state or native state. He should have walked away with it. He's spent a whole helluva lot more money and time there than Santorum or Gingrich. If anything Romney's team should be assessing the Michigan result pondering what went wrong. MIchigan isn't cause for a victory dance.
Perhaps most importantly, Romney will not go down the social issue rabbit hole.
Obama's re-election strategy is to scare the electorate into voting for him. That's what the contraception flap was all about. It was to scare women into believing that evil Republicans are going to take away their birth control, and to fill YouTube with the videos of conservatives dumb enough to take the bait. Romney opposes the HHS mandate, but clearly doesn't want to talk about it.
Mitt Romney scares nobody. Without fear, Obama loses. This is why I believe Romney is a far stronger general election candidate than people think.
Larry, I sure hope you're right. Trouble is, Mitt seemed come up with this supply side tax plan under duress. Also, his language about China sounds like that of a demand sider.
I'm not here to badmouth the improving economy. I'm glad of it. It shows the resilience of free-enterprise business. But I am here to question the new conventional belief that it hands the election to Obama. It's going to take more than that. It's going to take an economic program that can resonate -- such as the revitalized Romney plan.
Truly sad in my opinion that at least it appears at this time conservatives will have to hang our hopes on John McCain ver.2: Romney. Well, I suppose that in some ways Romney will be better than Obama.
What I can't wait for is Romney explaining how "Obamacare will destroy the slowly recovering economy, despite its great success by me in Massachusetts." :-)
Larry Kudlow is a magnanimous and gracious gentleman, but with all due respect, Mitt Romney is a Republican Janitorial Socialist 7.0.
Eric Cantor said this morning that Romney has said that he will sign a bill that repeals Obamacare. I agree, he will sign a "repeal" of Obamacare that will keep "all the good parts" and everyone will get what they want except for those who actually want it repealed. Republican Janitorial Socialism.
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