Election Crystal Ball
NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE collects some varied election predictions to mark Election Day 2012.


With polls closer than in any presidential election in my lifetime, virtually any prediction is as much a function of gut instinct and wishful thinking as it is scientific methodology. To borrow a football analogy, we’ve got the ball on the one-yard line with enough time for one last play. Who’s going to fight the hardest for that last yard?

My gut tells me we’ll win, but I’m going by my gut because the polls seem to have convinced no one but Nate Silver that this election is already decided.

In a race this close on election eve, it feels fitting that Election Day will end as close as it began. So let’s throw a curve ball: Mitt Romney loses a state he has to win, but just as the MSNBC team begins its victory dance, David Axelrod realizes he has to shave his mustache. Why? A 269–269 tie, and the House selects Mitt Romney as POTUS while the Senate selects Joe Biden as VP — as Biden casts the deciding vote for himself.

Thus launches the Romney-Biden administration, where Mississippi Baptists begin 24-hour prayer chains for the health and safety of their new Mormon President.

 David French is co-founder of Evangelicals for Mitt.

Mitt Romney’s greatest hope in Tuesday’s election may be the inability of many would-be Obama voters to follow Green Eggs and Ham–level ballot instructions. The question is whether there are enough double votes, hanging chads, and “I wonder what this touch screen tastes like”s to put Romney over the top. My gut says no, but my brain says never underestimate the potential of Democrats to screw things up. The only certainty is that if Obama loses, the tinfoil hats will come out in legion, crying racism and claiming that Karl Rove, Diebold, and the Project for the New American Century stole the presidency from their guy.

Serious prediction:Obama loses the popular vote but carries the Electoral College 280–258. He gets impeached by the still-Republican House over the Benghazi fiasco but is acquitted in the Senate, on a bipartisan basis, because absolutely no one wants a President Biden.

 Mark Goldblatt is the author of Bumper Sticker Liberalism.

For the record: I do not know what will happen.

 Joshua Greenman is opinion editor at the New York Daily News.

I think the Democratic party is going to be surprised to learn that women aren’t a single-issue voting bloc and can see through the manipulative games played this election. I think they may be surprised to find out that millions of women resent being told they should vote for the candidate who is promising them the most free stuff, at the expense of their children’s futures. Tomorrow, the question for many middle-class, working, Walmart moms like myself will be: “Which presidential candidate will help me make sure I can provide for my family?” Not: “Which candidate will guarantee me free birth control, even though I can get some at Target for nine bucks?” 

Kristan Hawkins is president of Students for Life.

Feels like 1980 to me: Same failed president, same crisis-plagued globe, same upbeat GOP nominee written off four years ago who won the key debate, same chance to get the Senate. Romney is the president-elect on Wednesday, with Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Colorado. Senate tied 50–50 after Ohio brings in Josh Mandel. Let the rebuilding begin. 

 Hugh Hewitt is host of The Hugh Hewitt Show and author of The Brief Against Obama: The Rise, Fall & Epic Fail of the Hope & Change Presidency.

Mitt Romney will win the presidency with a 284–254 electoral-vote margin. He will win a plurality of the popular vote, with 49.8 percent to Obama’s 48.6 percent (1.6 percent to others). The Senate will be tied at 50–50. The House will see a minor loss, of two seats, for Republicans. Conservatives will find in future years that they have plenty to cheer about from Texas’s new senator, Ted Cruz. 

Why will Romney win? The multi-organization conservative ground game this year is superb. Enthusiasm is high. Several bluish-purple states are on the verge of tipping to Romney, and at least one significant one will indeed tip his way. Obama’s support is comparatively desultory. 

The republic will be saved!

 Quin Hillyer is a senior fellow at the Center for Individual Freedom and a senior editor for The American Spectator.