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Tags: Battle '10

Post-election Observations from Nevada



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Some quick thoughts with stories to follow on a couple-few of these items:

  • Harry Reid won by 41,000 votes due to wins in the big three counties (Clark, Washoe and Mineral). He also did better than expected in a number of rural counties.
  • Only two percent went to ”None of These Candidates” in the senate race. Surprising.
  • Less than one percent went to “Tea Party of Nevada” candidate Scott Ashjian. Voters wised up.
  • Some of CNN’s exit poll data is interesting (nearly 4,000 interviews were conducted). The gender gap favored Reid, and he won Hispanics (who were 15 percent of the vote) 68-30. Reid also won women by eleven points.
  • Angle won seniors 53-44. She also did well with college graduates. According to this sample, though, she only won independents by four percent. Recent polls had shown her winning nonpartisan voters by 15-17 percent.
  • As mentioned yesterday, the public polling in the Senate race was terrible. We can chalk it up mostly to poor methodology including silly samples.
  • The pollster for the Las Vegas Review-Journal,Mason-Dixon, finds itself under fire, having missed the Senate and House results by about nine points. The pollster said Angle was up by four, but she lost by five. Mason-Dixon also showed Heck up by 10, but he won by less than one percent. In 2008, Mason-Dixon was also way wrong on the spread on Obama’s victory.
  • Kudos to Republican pollster Glen Bolger. His survey was widely derided, but it was correct.
  • Ditto to Reid’s own pollster, Mark Mellman, who (we now know) showed his man up by 4 or 5 points.
  • Is Sharron Angle done with politics? Probably not. Look for her to go after Dean Heller’s seat should the congressman decide to challenge John Ensign (unless Ensign is indicted in which case he may finally resign). Angle also might seek Ensign’s seat. Whoever wins the primary will probably face Rep. Shelley Berkley (D) who has given signals she wants to win the seat for the Democrats.


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