Republican senate candidate Carly Fiorina just delivered her concession speech, speaking about the conservative values she had run and giving a warm-hearted account of the campaign.

“This morning, the outcome is clear,” Fiorina said, acknowledging her refusal to concede last night, when the major networks had called the state for Boxer but the votes remained close. “We won with the independents, but in the end we could not overcome the registration advantage the Democrats have.”

Fiorina spoke almost nostalgically about the campaign she had run, calling it a “great adventure [and] great privilege.” Talking about the Californians she had met on the trail, she said, “I have been touched by every one of them.”

“I would not trade a single moment,” she said.

With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Democrat Sen. Barbara Boxer won 52 percent of the vote to Fiorina’s 43 percent.

Fiorina just announced she will not be conceding yet.

With 42 percent of precincts reporting, Boxer is leading by five points, 50 percent to 45 percent. But up until it reached the mid or late 30s in percentage of precincts reporting, Fiorina was tied with or only a couple of points behind Boxer.

The AP has become the latest media outlet to call the state for Boxer. But it’s still worth noting that, with 15 percent of precincts reporting, it looks like Fiorina gave Boxer a much more competitive race than she’s had in a while. In 2004, Boxer won by 20 points. In 1998, she won by ten points. Right now? She’s leading by two points, 48 percent to 46 percent. Having the nation’s third-highest unemployment rate has made California a little less blue, if not quite enough to tip the state over to the GOP column.

“This race is really close. It’s probably going to be a long night,” predicts Fiorina campaign press secretary Andrea Saul to Battle ’10.

Saul says that 3.6 million absentee ballots have been cast. While Democrats have cast more absentee ballots by four percentage points, Saul points out that Democrats have a 14-point advantage in voter registration over Republicans. 

“Anecdotally, we’re hearing that there’s a lot of enthusiasm on our side,” said Saul, talking about how the Fiorina campaign has contacted by phone or door-to-door volunteers over 3 million voters in the fall.  She also mentioned that one of their offices shares a parking lot with the Democrat office in Simi Valley — which was closed for the day, something the Fiorina campaign views as a good sign.

A new SurveyUSA poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer eight points ahead of Republican senate candidate Carly Fiorina, 46 percent to 38 percent.

But looking at the likely voters used for the poll sample shows that SurveyUSA assumed more Democrats and fewer Republicans would be voting in this election than did in 2006. CNN’s exit poll numbers for 2006 — a year where Democrats did very well — revealed that 41 percent of voters were Democrat, 35 percent Republican, and 25 percent Independent. SurveyUSA’s demographics for the 2010 California senate election — a year where it appears the enthusiasm gap is favoring the GOP — are 42 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican, and 23 percent Independent.

A new Public Policy Polling poll shows that Republican senate candidate Carly Fiorina is catching up to Democrat Sen. Barbara Boxer. The latest poll shows that Fiorina is four points behind Boxer, up from nine points about a week and a half ago. Boxer is backed by 50 percent of likely voters, while Fiorina is supported by 46 percent. Three percent of voters say they have not yet decided.

50 percent of voters disapprove of Boxer, while 44 percent have an unfavorable view of Fiorina. Forty percent approve of Boxer, and 42 percent view Fiorina favorably.

The state is split about President Obama, with 47 percent disapproving and 45 percent approving. Boxer has heavily touted her endorsement from the president, and held campaign events with both him and first lady Michelle Obama last month. Boxer also launched a new ad on Saturday that features Obama endorsing her.

Both candidates are about equal in their support from their parties: 88 percent of Republicans back Fiorina, while 84 percent of Democrats support Boxer. Among independents and third-party voters, half back Boxer, while 46 percent support Fiorina. Since Democrats heavily outnumber Republicans (17 million to 7.5 million), it’s crucial for Fiorina to gain support from independent voters.

The poll surveyed 882 likely voters and was conducted October 29 – 31. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

In a memo released yesterday,  Republican senate candidate Carly Fiorina’s campaign manager Marty Wilson argued that the Field Poll showing Fiorina trailing eight points behind Democrat Sen. Barbara Boxer does not accurately show the current gap between the candidates.

Wilson said that the Rasmussen poll, which shows Fiorina three points behind Boxer, is more accurate.  From the memo:

There are many differences in these polls, but most fundamental to them are the dates the Field Poll was conducted versus Rasmussen. Field compiled its data in two “waves” over a 12-day period that goes back to the middle of October. When they started conducting their survey, the Carly for California campaign had only expended 30 percent of our media dollars. Field’s survey simply does not capture our heavy spending for the last 10 days of the election, when Boxer is being outspent on television by a substantial margin. Conversely, Rasmussen was in the field on Wednesday, October 27, and they have the race within the margin of error. Finally, none of the public polls factor in the minor party candidates, who pull about 5 percent away from Boxer. Subtract five points from Boxer’s alleged Field Poll lead, and she receives 44 or 45 percent of the vote. Guess what? That’s consistent with the internal data we’re seeing. And that’s why Rasmussen has this race in the “toss-up” category.

Wilson predicted that Fiorina will win “by at least three” percentage points.

A new Field Poll shows Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer eight points ahead of Republican senate candidate Carly Fiorina, 49 percent to 41 percent.

Six percent of likely voters remain undecided, while four percent back a different candidate.

Boxer, who has increased her lead from last month’s six point advantage, is doing well among independent voters, supported by 49 percent to Fiorina’s 32 percent.

The Field Poll likely voter respondees were 44 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican, and 17 percent independent. Comparing that to the 2006 California voters, that’s an increase, by three and four percentage points respectively, of the number of Democrats and Republicans voting, and a significant decrease (eight percentage points) of non-partisan voters. With Republican enthusiasm high, and Democrat morale low, it’s unclear how different the 2010 electorate will be from the 2006 electorate, which brought a new surge of Democrats to elected office.

Boxer continues to have wider recognition than Fiorina, with 95 percent of likely voters familiar with her compared to 84 percent for Fiorina. Boxer is viewed unfavorably by 47 percent and favorably by 48 percent. Fiorina’s favorable and unfavorable ratings are both 42 percent.

The poll was conducted October 14 – 26, and included 1,092 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

A new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer at 49 percent and Carly Fiorina at 46 percent. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus four percentage points.

The race is considered a “Toss-Up” by Rasmussen.

While recent polls have given Boxer an overall lead of 6.2 points, according to RealClearPolitics, many of those polls have been assuming an electorate with a much higher percentage of Democratic participation than seems likely, considering how much more enthusiastic GOP voters are this year. Over at The Weekly Standard, Jeffrey Anderson has a good piece about how misjudging the electorate can impact polls. In fact, he figures that a more Republican electorate (which seems plausible) would lead to Boxer having only a 1-point lead over Fiorina.

Fiorina, who had been hospitalized for the past couple of days to be treated for an infection related to cancer-related surgery she had earlier this year, is back on the campaign trail today.

Sen. Barbara Boxer’s campaign wrote a letter to Los Angeles public school teachers earlier this month asking them to encourage students to volunteer for the Boxer campaign.

Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association president Jon Coupal has sent a letter to the Boxer campaign, informing them that their action was illegal:

California Education Code, section 51520 states: “During school hours, and within one hour before the time of opening and within one hour after the time of closing of school, pupils of the public school shall not be solicited on school premises by teachers or others to subscribe or contribute to the funds of, to become members of, or to work for, any organization not directly under the control of the school authorities, unless the organization is a nonpartisan, charitable organization organized for charitable purposes by an act of Congress or under the laws of the state, the purpose of the solicitation is nonpartisan and charitable, and the solicitation has been approved by the county board of education or by the governing board of the school district in which the school is located.”

UPDATE: The Boxer campaign has responded with an apology. “Because some local social studies teachers encourage students to volunteer, Boxer campaign volunteer coordinators notified a handful of schools near the campaign headquarters that the campaign was accepting volunteers,” said Boxer campaign manager Rose Kapolczynski in an e-mailed statement to Battle ‘10. “The letter did not ask teachers to solicit students to work on the campaign or to use school facilities, supplies or equipment for political purposes.  The sole intent of the letter was to provide interested students with information about a volunteer opportunity.  However, the letter, which was written by a volunteer and reviewed by a junior staffer, was inappropriate and we apologize.  The author of the letter has been counseled and campaign coordinators will no longer conduct outreach to public schools.”

Two new polls give Sen. Barbara Boxer a five-point lead over Republican Carly Fiorina.

The SurveyUSA poll shows Boxer backed by 45 percent of likely voters. Fiorina is at 40 percent. Eight percent remain undecided.

The CNN/Time poll shows Boxer at 50 percent to Fiorina’s 45 percent.

Republican senate candidate Carly Fiorina will be released from the hospital today, her campaign reports.

“Since she was admitted to the hospital yesterday morning, Carly has been successfully treated for the infection she had as a result of reconstructive surgery following her victory over breast cancer,” said Fiorina chief of staff Deborah Bowker in a statement. “This morning, her doctors gave her the good news that she will be released from the hospital today and can resume her busy campaign schedule tomorrow. Carly is grateful for the outpouring of well wishes and prayers from so many Californians.”

Carly Fiorina’s campaign has released a new web video, “Truthiness,” that shows footage of Sen. Barbara Boxer making claims — and then fact checks those claims.

In other California news, Palm Springs newspaper The Desert Sun endorsed Fiorina today, saying, “Fiorina’s business background and sharp conservative views would serve California better than the liberal Boxer.” Boxer owns a house in the Palm Springs area.

And at RealClearPolitics, Sean Trende shows that polls giving Boxer a large lead are also assuming a big Democratic turnout. While that might have been true in 2008, when Democrats were excited about the presidential election, the momentum appears to have shifted to the GOP this cycle.

“The pollsters showing a comfortable Boxer lead are showing electorates that are similar to 2008,” Trende noted. “On the other hand, the pollsters who are showing a tight race see an electorate more like 2004 or 2006.”

Republican senate candidate Carly Fiorina remained in an undisclosed hospital overnight after receiving treatment for an infection related to a cancer operation she had earlier this year.

“Carly has received treatment for the infection related to the reconstructive surgery she underwent in July after her winning battle with breast cancer,” said Fiorina campaign chief of staff Deborah Bowker in a statement. “The doctors tending to her care will observe her overnight and are taking every precaution to ensure that she can return to her busy campaign schedule. Carly is thankful for all of the prayers and encouragement she has received today from family, friends and supporters. She is anxious to get back on the campaign trail later this week and is very much looking forward to a victory on November 2.”

Carly Fiorina’s campaign has released a new web video slamming Sen. Barbara Boxer’s decision to accept money from Cisco, which has shipped thousands of jobs overseas, after Boxer has criticized Fiorina for outsourcing jobs while CEO at Hewlett Packard.

“During Barbara Boxer’s event at Cisco today, we couldn’t help but take note of her comment, ‘You know it is one thing if people say things, it’s another thing what they have actually done.’ We couldn’t have said it better ourselves, Senator,” said Fiorina campaign press secretary Andrea Saul in a statement. “Barbara Boxer has spent millions of dollars attacking Carly Fiorina for making the same tough decisions many American companies have been forced to make because of Boxer’s job-killing policies,” Saul added. “But the truth of the matter is that these attacks are funded in part by tens of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from CEOs like John Chambers and from companies like Cisco that have laid off workers and sent jobs overseas.”

The NRSC has launched a new ad in California that targets women voters. While there’s nothing gender specific about its economy-focused message, the ad features exclusively shots of women, looking concerned or anxious about unemployment and tax hikes.

The NRSC is spending $3 million to air the ad in the last stretch before Election Day.

A new Public Policy Polling poll gives Sen. Barbara Boxer a 9-point lead over Republican Carly Fiorina — but uses a sample demographic very different from the 2006 midterm election voters demographic in California.

Looking at CNN’s exit polling data for the 2006 midterms in the state, 41 percent of voters were Democrat, 35 percent were Republican, and 25 percent were independent. Fifty-one percent were women, and 49 percent were men.

The PPP sample has upped the Democrats by six percentage points to 47 percent of likely voters, decreased Republicans by one point to 34 percent, and decreased the number of independent voters by six percentage points, to 19 percent. The number of women increased to 53 percent (from 51 percent) and the number of men decreased to 47 percent (from 49 percent).

Boxer has been doing significantly better among women and Democrats than Fiorina has, so changing these numbers could easily impact the poll results.

Republican senate candidate Carly Fiorina was hospitalized this morning for an infection related to surgery she had during her treatment for breast cancer.

“Carly learned more than a year and a half ago that she, like millions of women, had breast cancer. After successfully battling cancer, she had reconstructive surgery this summer and remains cancer free today,” said Fiorina chief of staff Deborah Bowker in a statement.

“However, this morning Carly came down with an infection associated with the reconstructive surgery and, as a result, she was admitted to the hospital to receive antibiotics to treat this infection. While this will impact her campaign schedule today, Carly is upbeat and her doctors expect her to make a quick and full recovery and be back out on the campaign trail soon. Carly is looking forward to getting back to her full campaign schedule and to defeating Barbara Boxer on November 2,” Bowker said.

UPDATE: The Boxer campaign has issued a statement wishing Fiorina well. “We wish Carly Fiorina a speedy recovery and hope she is able to return to her normal schedule soon,”  said  Boxer campaign manager Rose Kapolczynski.

Sen. Barbara Boxer has maintained a four-point lead over Republican Carly Fiorina in a new Fox News poll, backed by 48 percent of likely voters to Fiorina’s 44 percent. Three percent of voters remain undecided.

Both candidates have had a slight decrease in their unfavorable ratings and an uptick in their favorable ratings.  Half of likely voters have an unfavorable view of Boxer, while 45 percent view her favorably.  Forty-seven percent view Fiorina unfavorably, while 39 percent have a favorable view of her.

Voters are split nearly 50/50 on how they think President Obama is doing, although 71 percent think the administration’s economic policies have either hurt or made no difference in California.

The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

How are things going in California? According to Sen. Dianne Feinstein, speaking off-camera to reporters just before a Sen. Barbara Boxer campaign event, matters are “bad.”

Asked by a reporter to clarify if she meant in the House, where the Democrats are expected to lose a significant number of seats, Feinstein did not answer.

For Boxer, accustomed to winning races by ten to twenty points, this senate race has been unusually competitive. The RealClearPolitics average of recent polls shows Boxer leading by 2.8 points.

Fiorina has loaned her campaign a million, making the two campaigns tied for cash on hand in the last days of the campaign — a stark contrast from 2004, when GOP senate candidate Bill Jones never raised enough to run a TV ad. (Fiorina’s had five running in various media markets throughout the state.) The National Republican Senatorial Committee is spending another $3 million on TV ads before Election Day.

Boxer recently spent $4 million on TV ads, a figure that has the Fiorina campaign suspecting the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has pitched in to help Boxer, since that amount exceeds the $2.27 million Boxer reported having in the bank as of October 13. The DSCC has neither confirmed nor denied assisting Boxer. 

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is spending another $3 million in California this week on TV ads, bringing up the NRSC’s total spending in California this election to $7.8 million.

In a statement, NRSC spokeswoman Amber Marchand said the buy was “demonstrating our confidence that this race is very much winnable.” The NRSC’s internal polls show Fiorina a point behind Boxer.

The Fiorina campaign has also released a new ad today, “Crushed,” which uses stark, Depression-like images to convey the hopelessness of California’s current economy.

“Barbara Boxer failed to protect California jobs,” charges the narrator. “Praises the stimulus plan while two and a quarter million Californians are unemployed,” he continues, as the camera pans over a crowd holding signs saying “I want to work.”

“Trillions in deficits. Billions in taxes. Our hopes crushed by Washington. The legacy of Barbara Boxer,” intones the narrator. “We can change Washington. But not unless we change the people we send there.”

A new USC/LA Times poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer ahead of Republican senate candidate Carly Fiorina by eight points, 50 percent to 42 percent.

The Fiorina campaign is charging that the poll, which shows a significantly wider gap between the candidates than that found by other recent polls, uses a skewed sample of likely voters.

The Tarrance Group’s Dave Sackett compared the poll’s sample of likely voters to the voter turnout in 2006, and found that the poll’s group upped the percentage of Democrats by two points and decreased the percent of Republicans and Independents by 3 points and 1 point respectively. Considering that 2006 was a year of high enthusiasm for Democrats and 2010 promises to be the same for Republicans, the poll’s sample decisions are surprising.

“Among those respondents who voted in 2006, the ballot test is a statistical dead heat, with Boxer at 46 percent of the vote and Fiorina at 45 percent of the vote,” noted Sackett.

In the first two weeks of October, Republican senate candidate Carly Fiorina raised $1.4 million while Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer raised $1.1 million.

As of October 13, Fiorina reported having $1.27 million cash on hand, while Boxer announced she had $2.27 million in the bank.

Fiorina announced today that she was loaning $1 million to her campaign.

A new Rasmussen poll shows Sen. Barbara Boxer and Republican Carly Fiorina remain in a tight race, with Boxer two points ahead of Fiorina, 48 percent to 46 percent.

Three percent of voters remain undecided. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4 points.

The RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Boxer with a 1.4-point lead.

Sen. Barbara Boxer’s campaign has released a new ad that features laid-off Hewlett-Packard employees bashing Carly Fiorina, who as CEO laid off 30,000 employees following a merger.

The employees complain that Fiorina shipped their jobs overseas, and ultimately collected $100 million for her work at HP.

“Carly Fiorina says she is proud to run on her record at Hewlett-Packard, and this ad gives voters a chance to hear about that record from people who experienced it first hand,” said Boxer campaign manager Rose Kapolczynski in a statement.

The ad will air in Los Angeles and San Francisco. Fiorina’s campaign had previously released a web video that shows former HP employees defending Fiorina’s tenure at the company, including her layoff decision.

Meanwhile, Carly Fiorina’s campaign has also released a new ad, “Bickering,” and a new web video, “Jammed Up.”

“Bickering” features a despondent narrator who says, “California jobs gone, and Barbara Boxer plays politics,” as “2,273,900 Californians unemployed” flashes across the screen. “Her hometown paper refuses to endorse her, saying, ‘We deserve a senator who is effective, willing to reach across the aisle,’” he continues, referring to the San Francisco Chronicle’s refusal to endorse either senate candidate.

Fiorina appears onscreen then, against a muted backdrop and using an affable, upbeat tone. “When bickering ends, solutions begin,” she says calmly. “No partisan games. I’ll reach across the aisle. Work with others. Oppose my party if needed. Your agenda. Not mine.”

The “Jammed Up” web video shows scenes of backed-up bumper-to-bumper traffic clogging the freeways and news clips of Los Angeles residents complaining about how the roads roped off to accommodate President Obama, who was visiting the city, had created massive traffic. Tomorrow the president will be attending a fundraiser and rally at University of Southern California in Los Angeles for Boxer.

“The president’s visit to West Los Angeles in August caused major traffic problems. Police warn it will be the same for this visit,” reported ABC News today.

“Once again, Barbara Boxer is jamming up California,” notes the video. “But Boxer’s traffic jam could be the least of your worries. Jammed trying to find a job? 2.2 million Californians are unemployed.”

“Jammed trying to pay for your home? California has the 4th highest foreclosure rate,” the video continues. “Barbara Boxer has California jammed up.”

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce also released a new TV ad earlier this week that slams Boxer’s fiscal record.

“Barbara Boxer has been recklessly mortgaging America’s future by adding trillions to the deficit and our tax burden. After nearly three decades as a Washington politician, there appears to be no limit to Boxer’s eagerness to tax and spend,” said Chamber national political director Bill Miller in a statement.

“As if her fiscal irresponsibility were not enough, Boxer also voted to cut back water to the Central Valley, shutting down farms and small businesses and helping to drive some Valley unemployment rates as high as 40 percent,” Miller added.

The ad will air in the Los Angeles area.