Defeated Republican Ken Buck acknowledges that Sen. Michael Bennet’s gamble on making the U.S. Senate contest in Colorado a referendum on Buck’s positions on social issues rather than a debate centered on the economy, jobs, and government spending was the right one–but that the messaging from the Democratic side enjoyed enhanced efficacy due to infrastructure:

Though Buck and Bennet had roughly equal amounts of outside TV money spent against them — Buck suffering $11.3 million in such hits, according to the Sunlight Foundation, and Bennet taking hits worth $10.7 million — Buck said Republicans need a better plan.

Democratic ads may be funded by a variety of trial lawyers, women’s groups or unions, Buck said, but they appear to coordinate on finding messages that resonate in Colorado. State Democrats also have an extensive get-out-the-vote operation and advocacy groups researching and attacking candidates, Buck added.

Democrats have a “large amount of money spent on infrastructure, and that’s where I think Republicans are really losing,” he said.

Despite accusations that he flip-flopped or periodically backed away from extreme Tea Party positions from early in the campaign, Buck said the problem wasn’t his language but Republicans’ lack of video “trackers” catching Bennet in similar situations.

The Democratic tracker(s) that followed Buck did so as early as 2009, way before Buck won the support of the grassroots movement in the state, much less the Republican primary. It is clear that trackers were also trailing the other Republican, Jane Norton. Much of the other video that was used to attack Buck came from others who posted video online from any of the hundreds of campaign events, including conservative bloggers and average folks with digital cameras. Every candidate should expect every event short of closed-door, private events to be subject to some sort of recording. Colorado law is fairly permissive when it comes to audio and video recording, even when no permission is granted by the person being recorded.

The larger point, and one that Buck alludes to but does not address specifically, is what he sees as the left’s ability to turn the acquired video or audio into a meaningful messaging attack. Hard coordination is illegal, but “soft,” thematic coordination is not, and both sides used similar messaging as ads appeared to cover the same ground in their attacks on the respective candidates. Buck’s campaign was not able to use Bennet’s words as effectively as Bennet’s campaign attacked Buck. There was plenty of material, but not as much of it made it from the online world to last-minute attack ads against the appointed Democratic Senator. The end of the infrastructure–the messaging machine–made the trackers’ video invaluable. Simply matching the Democrats tracker-for-tracker will not solve the problem.

**Update–Bennet says no to DSCC chair:

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet has decided against chairing the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in the 2012 election cycle, according to sources familiar with his decision.

Bennet, who was elected to a full six-year term last Tuesday after being appointed to the seat in early 2009, was asked to consider heading the Senate campaign arm by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.). The two men spoke by phone about the job on Tuesday.

Bennet aides did not return repeated requests for comment on his decision.[...]

Bennet’s fundraising abilities — as demonstrated in his hard-fought victory over Weld County prosecutor Ken Buck (R) on Nov. 2 — coupled with his relationships with his colleagues made him a potentially attractive choice, sources suggested.

But, coming off of a bruising campaign and with three young children, Bennet has decided to pass.

Sen. Michael Bennet’s unexpected victory in Colorado has led to plum opportunities in party leadership:

A senior Senate Democratic source told POLITICO this afternoon that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has asked Colorado Freshman Michael Bennet to head the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Bennet, who won an uphill battle for election to his appointed seat, “didn’t say yes, and he didn’t say no” in the Tuesday conversation with Reid, the source said. Bennet has been on a “thank you” tour of his state in the wake of his bruising campaign but will need to decide soon on the committee post.

The case for Bennet is that the former Denver schools chief is a respected figure in Washington and among major Democratic donors and also identifies with swing state Democrats, such as Sens. Claire McCaskill of Missouri and John Tester of Montana, who face tough elections next cycle.

A prime consideration for Bennet is whether or not he would wish to oversee 23 races (21 Democrats plus 2 independents that caucus with the party) in 2012 that could prove to be monumentally difficult to hold if voters are still dissatisfied. DSCC leadership means fundraising to maintain the current Senate makeup and recruiting candidates to oppose Republicans in the 10 remaining races. No one wants to be DSCC chair and lose the majority in the Senate–something that Bennet is keenly aware of as he weighs his options.

Congressman-elect Cory Gardner spoke to Battle ‘10 last week following a decisive 12-point, 30,000-vote victory over one-term incumbent Democrat Rep. Betsy Markey, 53 to 41. Gardner won every county except for a small portion of liberal Boulder county, including the battleground Larimer county, that had gone to Democrats from 2004 to 2008 and was seen as the only place where Markey could hold out any hope of keeping the race close.

Since his election, Gardner has been one of just a handful of freshman legislators tapped to join the GOP Majority transition team, a signal of potential future grooming, and a recognition of his hard-fought reacquisition of a seat that skews conservative on Colorado’s Eastern Plains and, with the exception of Markey, had been in Republican hands for decades.

“We always knew Larimer County would be one of our toughest areas,” said Gardner. “We actually felt very good about our results in Boulder County, just based on the number of Democrats to Republicans and unaffiliateds in that portion of the seat. So we always knew Larimer would be a very strong challenge and so we focused our efforts there, we located our headquarters there, and walked tens of thousands of houses in Larimer County. We made tens of thousands of phone calls. It was a very concentrated, grassroots effort to contact anybody and everybody we could in Larimer County personally.”

He believes he picked up crossover votes from Democrats as well. ”Last night, there was a woman who came up and told me that I am the first Republican she had ever voted for. There was another Democrat from Longmont that said she had voted for me. Now she did not say I was the first Republican she had ever voted for, but she did say she was a Demcorat and she voted for me. Both of them voted for Markey two years ago,” noted Gardner. “There were a number of Republicans we met throughout the campaign who voted for Markey in the previous year.”

Gardner continued, “Our message resonated with them, our message that Congress is not acting in the best interest of this country, particularly the best interest of the Fourth Congressional District.”

Congressman-elect Cory Gardner, CO-4

Gardner pointed to Markey’s voting record as the source for his base and crossover appeal. ”That was the key difference. Things like Cap and Trade, health care, the stimulus bill are out of step with the commonsense voters of the 4th,” said Gardner.

Voters turned against Markey, and Gardner noted the lesson to be learned by turning your back on your constituency. ”I think it showed what happens when you don’t listen to the voters that you represent,” said Gardner. “And we made it clear that we have the same background values and commonsense approach that the voters do. That is what brought us over the finish line.”

Unlike the unsuccessful Republican U.S. Senate candidate in Colorado, Ken Buck, Gardner never allowed himself to be distracted by social issues–raised by his Democratic opponent–in an attempt to sidetrack him from what he believed was the overriding concern of the election at every level: the economy and government spending. 

“It was the same from day one,” argued Gardner. “I have told the story often about the Fourth of July parade in Brush, Colorado where somebody was shouting out from the side of the parade, ‘Stop the spending, cut the budget!’ It’s about the economy and that never changed. And it was the same in Fort Collins, the biggest city in the district, as it was in Eckley, Colorado.”

Riding a consistent message and a “wave” of enthusiasm, Gardner also pointed out Markey’s tone-deafness that he cited earlier in the interview lent itself to the perception that voters were being “betrayed.” Gardner concluded, ”There was tremendous enthusiasm amongst Republicans and unaffiliated voters. So it was not so much that ‘We’re going to be a part of a wave’ as it was, ‘Hey, other people agree with us, these guys are out of control!’ The one word that kept coming up wherever I was–Estes Park, Burlington–was the word betrayed. A lot of people felt betrayed by this Congress. It was a Congress that was elected . . . they were not going to raise taxes, they were going to reduce spending or not spend any more, and they did everything but that.”

Gardner spoke about the difficulties–the pressure applied to a candidate’s family–that burdens those that run for office. ”The first thing I’m going to do is reintroduce myself to my wife and daughter and make sure they remember who I am,” Gardner quipped.

Gardner quickly returned to his–and the GOP’s–top priorities. “But seriously, we’ve got to stop the taxes from being increased in January. We’ve got to put a concerted effort into the passage of a balanced budget plan. We’ve got to make sure we’re looking for spending cuts,” said Gardner.

Gardner admitted he was not afraid of tackling the big issues and defending his district’s interests, or making tough votes to accomplish that agenda. ”I’m not afraid to be the handful of ‘yes’ votes when it’s the right thing to do, or the handful of ‘no’ votes when it’s the right thing to do,” said Gardner. “I think that is what the voters in any district expect.” Gardner did point to the pressure that voters have placed on the new GOP majority, and that their priorities must align with what voters sent Congress to Washington, DC to accomplish. “If we get out there and fail to do what we said we’re going to do, then the same thing is going to happen in two years. And by that I mean, if we don’t address the deficit, and we don’t address the debt, then the same thing happens in two years,” said Gardner.

Gardner did not anticipate a change in his approach to being a legislator, or abandoning the voters who elected him in a way that many had felt Markey had by avoiding town hall meetings and ducking out of debates. ”My approach in the state legislature was to hold town meetings anywhere and everywhere. I’ve held town meetings in Eads, Kit Carson, Cheyenne Wells countless times. I’ve held town meetings in Cope, Colorado and I don’t think most people in Colorado know where that is,” joked Gardner. He continued, “That’s the same kind of approach I’ll bring to the Fourth Congressional District. It’s walking main streets, it’s visiting with business owners, it’s making sure that the voters of the district have the chance to see me, in person, that I can listen and learn about the matters that affect their lives.”

Just as messaging is important during an election, Gardner asserted messaging would be as important, if not more so, once the GOP majority takes the reins of power. ”We’ve got to work hard, and we’ve got to be able to say we’ve worked hard to do what we said we would do, show what we did, show what we tried to do, and communicate that clearly and effectively to the voters. The difference being this is actually something the voters want us to do,” said Gardner.

Gardner provided a general overview of what voters in his district could expect to characterize the new Representative’s agenda in coming months. In particular, Gardner pointed to a more open and transparent process in how Congress legislates. ”We’ve developed a 2010 plan, things we believed that if they were adopted in 2010, we’d have a better country. Everything from transparency and accountability, meaning the 72 hours of posting legislation and amendments so everyone has the chance to read it, to getting rid of czars throughout government,” said Gardner.

As for specifics, Gardner outlined measures that would have resonance in the district overall. “We’ve come up with a small business savings account idea which would allow people to save money to invest in businesses and hire new people and expand their businesses similar to a health savings account it it’s tax treatment.”

When asked about the metrics that defined the election and that would define any solutions used to address them, Gardner targeted unemployment and the effect that government regulation has on increasing uncertainty in the business community that, by extension, hurts the economy, driving up unemployment. ”If you look at a place like Greeley, Colorado it has been amongst the highest in cities around the country with unemployment. Weld county has fared a little bit better, Larimer county is a little bit better than the average in the nation, but it is still too high. We have to put policies in place that will help spur economic activity,” said Gardner. On the next point, Gardner was adamant. “That is a market-based approach, that’s not government saying ‘Alright, we’re here to do it for you.’ But it is also the uncertainty that we’ve talked about time and time again about cap and trade. Is it going to pass? Is it going through the regulatory process? Or the uncertainty of the health care bill and what it means to businesses. Those are the kinds of things we’ve got to make sure that businesses know they can invest and they’re not going to be penalized for it,” concluded Gardner.

Gardner believed that in addition to more “red” on the map symbolizing Republican takeovers in the 3rd and 4th Congressional Districts, the electoral success this cycle gives the GOP a lead in the Congressional delegation for the first time since 2007 and will boost Republican chances in the state in 2012. ”It really sets the tone for the next two years. The people of these districts rejected what Congress and this President have done over the past two years–that is was an agenda out of step with what we believed should be the direction of the country and over the next two years we’ll see the effects of that in the next election,” said Gardner.

The 2012 election will be Gardner’s first as an incumbent, but will also represent the first post-redistricting election challenge. He remained optimistic but sanguine about the political realities. ”We’ve taken control of the state house, so obviously we’ll be interested in what happens,” said Gardner. “A lot of high stakes involved.”

Battle ‘10 wrapped up the conversation by asking for the one thing that stood out to him as the most interesting takeaway from the entire process. ”It is amazing because we announced on May 7, 2009 and within two hours on November 2 it was decided whether people wanted to talk to me or not,” joked Gardner. And you bet they are already gabbing away.

Congressman-elect Cory Gardner (CO-4) has already moved from National Republican Congressional Committee “Young Gun” to one of the Republican representatives tapped for recognition as part of the “transition team” that will play a role in the run up to taking control of the House, but also identified as one of the “rising stars” that will most likely be groomed for eventual House leadership in subsequent Congressional sessions.

Battle ’10 interviewed Gardner following his election last week, and will have that interview posted tomorrow. First, a look at Gardner’s elevation to the transition team, as well as the things the newly minted Congressman should expect in coming months, from a logistical standpoint–where to live, who to hire–but also what to expect politically, as the jousting for Gardner’s support on House leadership, committee appointments, and legislative agenda begins in earnest.

From the House GOP Majority Transition Office:

Walden Announces Members of Majority Transition Team

Washington, D.C. – As Republicans prepare for a new majority in the House of Representatives, Transition Chairman Greg Walden (R-OR) today announced the members of a transition team who will help ensure the House is ready to act right away on the priorities of the American people in January. Members of this team will work to implement the congressional reforms included in the Pledge to America and look at additional ways to make Congress more transparent, cost-efficient, and accountable to the people. Ready to get to work, the transition team will hold its first meeting this evening with further meetings scheduled for Tuesday. Upon announcement of the team members, Rep. Walden released the following statement.

“Americans have sent a clear message that Congress must be run differently, and this team is ready to prove that we’re listening,” said Rep. Walden. “Our transition team includes proven leaders who will meet our challenge to restore the House of Representatives as a great deliberative body that respects the will of the American people. The diverse mix of experience, backgrounds, and regions represented by this group will help to ensure this process brings meaningful reform to how Washington does business. Each one of these members accepted this responsibility with an encouraging enthusiasm, and I’m thankful to all of them for serving.”

Members of the GOP Majority Transition Team

Rep. Rob Bishop (UT-1), Rep. John Campbell (CA-48), Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (WV-2), Rep. Jason Chaffetz (UT-3), Rep. Tom Cole (OK-4), Rep. Mike Conaway (TX-11), Rep. David Dreier (CA-26), Rep.-elect Cory Gardner (CO-4), Rep. Bob Goodlatte (VA-6), Rep. Doc Hastings (WA-4), Rep. Jeb Hensarling (TX-5), Rep. Jim Jordan (OH-4), Rep.-elect Adam Kinzinger (IL-11), Rep. Buck McKeon (CA-25), Rep. Candice Miller (MI-10), Rep.-elect Martha Roby (AL-2), Rep. Mike Rogers (MI-8), Rep. Paul Ryan (WI-1), Rep.-elect Tim Scott (SC-1), Rep. Pete Sessions (TX-32), Rep. Pat Tiberi (OH-12)

Gardner’s first priorities:

Gardner unseated incumbent Democrat Betsy Markey by almost 11 percentage points to win election to the U.S. House of Representatives. He’ll be sworn in at the beginning of January 2011, and for the next two months, he’ll be hiring staff, finding office space in Washington and Colorado and getting to know other members of Congress, including the dozens of his fellow Republican freshmen elected in one of the greatest waves in U.S. history.

He’ll also be courted by veteran Republicans seeking his support for leadership candidates, as well as potential Republican presidential candidates. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, widely expected to make a presidential run in 2008, called Gardner on election night to congratulate him.

And then there are intensely personal decisions for the 36-year-old congressman-in-waiting, his wife Jaime, and their 6-year-old daughter, Alyson. Do they all move to Washington or maintain the family home in Yuma?

Former Rep. Bob Schaffer (R-CO) represented the same Congressional District from 1997-2003, and offered outsiders–all the rest of us who weren’t elected–an exhaustive glimpse inside the next stage of the “campaign”:

“Congratulations, congressman! Boy that sounds good doesn’t it? Congressman Gardner? You ran a great race and you’ll be an outstanding member of Congress. Say, by the way, I’ve got the chairmanship of (fill in the blank) almost in the bag, but I wanted to make sure you’re on my team. You know, I really enjoyed campaigning with you out in Lovemont — was that the name of that little place? — and I’m glad my visit helped you win your race. When you get back to D.C., I’ll have my chief of staff get in touch with you to set up a meeting right away to map out a plan for how you and I are going to work together. Okay? Oh, again, congratulations to you and your wife Jane (staffer interrupts)…I mean Jamie.”

Keep in mind, incumbent GOP members of Congress have been working on these inter-party cam-paigns for months, sometimes years. Cory will be negotiating them next week.

There will be no rest after Tuesday night’s contest. Mr. Gardner just finished a marathon and now has to gear up for a different kind of campaign. He’ll be contending with, among and against the nation’s best campaigners. [...]

Gov. John Hickenlooper, despite his pretensions for being bipartisan, will devote enormous resources and energy to gerrymandering the 4th Congressional District (based upon the 2010 Census) by pulling half of Boulder County into the new district — possibly even drawing Yuma (Gardner’s home) out of it. Mr. Gardner will need to “lawyer up” to survive this part of the campaign, too. [emphasis added]

On Tuesday, I wrote that among the many factors that could come into play to in a decisive fashion for either U.S. Senate candidate was the so-called “gender gap,” a trend noted in polling and specifically targeted by Democrats in their attacks on Ken Buck’s positions.

Tuesday’s results show that the gender gap was real, at least as far as Sen. Michael Bennet’s electoral victory was concerned.

Bennet won the majority of battleground counties handily–as noted below (won/lost for Bennet)–but more importantly, all eleven counties show a significant registration advantage for women among all “likely” voters. The full list of counties for Colorado shows that more than 50 of the 64 counties have a gender registration advantage among women. Bennet’s targeting of women’s issues and pushing the “Buck dislikes women” meme allowed his campaign to do well in the suburban counties that are critical to any statewide campaign’s success. With women already favoring Democrats, and in particular independent and single women showing a clear partisan preference, Bennet’s strategic and tactical use of strong messaging overtly targeting women allowed him to take advantage of the marginal female vote–the unaffiliateds and leaners (and possibly even some Republicans) who “just couldn’t vote for Buck.” It did not produce a staggering landslide, but enough margins of a few thousand in each of the counties to give him a narrow, 1 point victory.

Exit polling showed women giving Bennet an insurmountable lead. Even with Buck winning men almost as handily, the clear numerical advantage the Democrats were looking at meant that Buck could never make up the ground if women turned out and perhaps even split their tickets, voting against Buck in the Senate race but sticking with Republicans in the Congressional races and state-level races.

The county is followed by the “likely” voter registration with women listed first, followed by men:

Adams: 90,642 78,953 WON

Arapahoe: 147,137 126,112 WON

Boulder: 84,817 78,148 WON

Denver: 146,700 127,093 WON

Douglas: 82,915 76,404 LOST

El Paso: 155,460 134,643 LOST

Jefferson: 159,027 140,145 WON

Larimer: 88,174 79,445 WON

Mesa: 38,435 34,474 LOST

Pueblo: 40,913 34,718 WON

Weld: 59,609 53,521 LOST

Total Women: 1,093,830

Total Men: 963,656

By Gender by Status

The gap appeared in many other states as well in both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate battles. Not all Republicans lost, however.

If folks in the Denver metropolitan statistical area and television market feel shell-shocked by the amount of political ads they saw in October, it is for a good reason. Nielsen released the staggering figures –1.48 million–that amounted to a record number of political ads run in the month of October, and putting Denver in 8th place for the number of political ads seen as a percentage of all ads placed on TV:

From a memo sent by Colorado GOP Chairman Dick Wadhams, who rejected the get-out-the-vote superiority of the Democrats, citing the impressive wins Colorado Republicans saw elsewhere in the state:

Republican Congressman Doug Lamborn and Congressman Mike Coffman were overwhelmingly reelected. Congressman-elect Cory Gardner unseated Betsy Markey in the Fourth District while Congressman-elect Scott Tipton unseated John Salazar in the Third District resulting in a 4-3 Republican advantage in Colorado’s U.S. House delegation. The last time two incumbent members of Congress were defeated in the same election in Colorado was 46 years ago in 1964.

Attorney General John Suthers and CU Regent at-large Steve Bosley were reelected while Walker Stapleton unseated Democratic incumbent State Treasurer Kerry Kennedy and Scott Gessler unseated Democratic incumbent Secretary of State Bernie Buescher resulting in a clean sweep of the other statewide offices.

There is no doubt the malicious and deceitful ads by Michael Bennet were largely responsible for Ken Buck’s defeat. Bennet and his leftist allies spent millions during the final three weeks with despicable ads narrowly targeted to undecided unaffiliated women voters attempting to make Ken Buck unacceptable. They wanted to move the debate from the economy and spending to abortion and other social issues with those voters. That narrow slice of the electorate was still up for grabs as Buck was clinging to a narrow lead going into election day. Unfortunately, their strategy worked.

Despite the myth already being propagated since election day that Democrats had a more effective turn-out operation, the Colorado Republican Victory voter identification and turnout operation was successful and superior to the Democrats.

According to the Denver Post as of today with 96 percent of precincts reported, Buck had 783,426 votes as opposed to Suthers with 908,026, Stapleton with 815,715, and Gessler with 804,953. Clearly there was a drop off between Buck and our other statewide candidates. While the Bennet/leftist media strategy moved those unaffiliated women voters away from Buck, they largely went on to vote for Republicans Suthers, Stapleton, Gessler and Bosley. [emphasis added]

The Secretary of State race certainly bears this out. Scott Gessler was an outstanding candidate but had very little money to spend in his campaign against Secretary of State Bernie Buescher. Voters knew very little about Gessler and not that much more about the incumbent Buescher. And yet, Gessler unseated Buescher.

Had the vaunted Democratic turnout operation been as effective as post-election mythology is portraying it, Democrats would have swept all of the statewide offices we won.

**Update–folks on the progressive side of the state also assail the GOTV superiority meme, noting that Bennet barely won while Democrats lost on many other fronts.

The U.S. Senate battle between reelected Democratic incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet and his Republican challenger Ken Buck won the title for the most expensive race with more than $33 million spent in favor of both candidates, with a slight majority favoring the GOP candidate with 54 percent of overall independent expenditures:

Race–Colo. Sen. Michael F Bennet, D (incumbent)

Last week–$5,964,300

Two weeks ago–$7,566,269

Three weeks ago–$4,878,765

Total–$33,435,827

Partisanship–54% Republican

Photos by Gina Sandoval, election night contributor to NRO Battle ‘10

In short release issued just moments ago by Ken Buck:

Buck Congratulates Senator Bennet

DENVER – Ken Buck said he called Senator Michael Bennet this afternoon to congratulate him on winning the U. S. Senate race.

Buck said that while the final margin in the race is very small, Colorado voters have spoken and he wishes Senator Bennet well.

Buck said, “my Senate campaign has been the experience of a lifetime. I will be forever grateful to the thousands of Coloradans who helped make this grassroots journey possible.”

Fox 31 also calls the Senate race for the Democrat:

Democratic U.S. Senator Michael Bennet retained his seat by beating Republican Ken Buck in a neck-and-neck race. Bennet had an 8,000-vote lead Wednesday morning with 88 percent of the precincts reporting.

The locations with remaining votes, primarily Arapahoe and Boulder counties, are Democrat-friendly, and it was not going to be possible for Buck to catch up.

Bennet’s campaign was confident his lead would grow when those ballots were counted, so his team felt very good Wednesday morning about his chances of winning the race.

Buck’s lead, which had gone up and down all night, was at 9,000 votes around 2 a.m. Wednesday, after additional returns from several smaller rural counties. But Bennet took a lead of just a few thousand votes with 88 percent of the precincts reporting at 8:00 a.m.

Despite polling showing Ken Buck with a lead or within the margin of error (in Democratic-leaning polls) since the primary in August, it appears that appointed Sen. Michael Bennet stands a strong chance of being elected to a full term. He currently holds a 7,000 vote lead, though this would still be close enough to trigger an automatic recount.

At least for the U.S. Senate race, three factors appear to have allowed Bennet to close a gap in the final days of the campaign. A social media induced storm of commentary starting on the left side of the blogosphere reintroduced a non-story that gave Bennet a key wedge to attack Buck with that targeted women: a refusal to prosecute a weak rape case that even the female Boulder county DA said was unwinnable. That happened in 2005, but a progressive group “shopped” the story, and finding no takers in the mainstream media, allowed the left-leaning Colorado Independent to publish the story–and put it into the “mainstream.” That citation was eventually used in attack ads that pounced on “Buck doesn’t care about women” meme that the Bennet campaign pushed since August. If Bennet ultimately wins, it will be because Buck lost with women by a large margin. Buck inadvertently compounded the story by asserting that being gay was akin to alchoholism, all within the same week.

Second, the fractured Tea Party movement, having seen its gubernatorial candidate implode, eroded Republican cohesion and a unified GOP ticket. That helped draw down momentum from the Buck campaign, introducing upstream voter apathy about the U.S. Senate race as the governor’s race devolved into a two party conservative split between nominal Republican candidate Dan Maes and American Constitution Party candidate and former Republican Congressman Tom Tancredo.

Finally, the get-out-the-vote effort installed by the “Colorado Model” and Democratic donors ahead of the 2004 election may have saved the day for Bennet, turning out Democratic voters in a tough political environment and allowing the party to stay just ahead in key battleground counties in the suburban Denver metro area that provided a counter to Republican strength elsewhere. The vote margins were small–there were no blowouts in the counties outside of the Boulder-Denver corridor, but leads of a few thousand votes in places like Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson and Larimer counties appear to be the key to Bennet retaining his seat.

Republicans will also mull over the potential reasons why so many polls–and strong favorable partisan early voting returns–failed to produce a victory. Very few polls showed Bennet in the lead, though he managed to stay with the margin of error, but appeared to indicate that Buck could eke out a narrow 1-2 percent victory. Even after the rape case and gay gaffe broke during the first week of early voting, Republicans showed strong early returns as the partisan ballot advantage appeared to be playing heavily in their favor. Ultimately, concerted Democratic messaging appears to have swayed women voters and independents in suburban Denver, eliminating the polling advantages that Buck enjoyed earlier in October.

There are still outstanding ballots, and so the final tabulated results are not yet in. But what’s being reported in the unofficial results indicates that Republican gubernatorial candidate Dan Maes has secured more than 10.0% of the vote. Fears based on the latest round of polls that Maes would land in single digits didn’t materialize. And some pundits (myself included) are humbled again on the high-profile races.

The U.S. Senate showdown remains up in the air with some late counties, as well as military and provisional ballots outstanding, (despite the Denver Post jumping the gun). But Republicans have consoled themselves so far by winning the Secretary of State and Treasurer offices, along with John Suthers holding on as Attorney General. And while several races remain uncalled this morning, the GOP looks like they have won a narrow majority in the state house and are holding on to faint hopes of taking the state senate.

Besides the obvious (i.e., the governor’s race), disappointments for conservatives include the relatively close loss of Amendment 63 (the right to health care choice) and the wider-margin defeat of the Clear the Bench Colorado campaign to unseat three state supreme court justices. Election Day is over. And yet it’s not all over. Stay tuned for the last results to be made official.

Guest post by Ben DeGrow. Cross posted at Mount Virtus.

Republican Ryan Frazier gave Rep. Ed Perlmutter the toughest challenge he’s faced in CO-7, but in the end fell short of unseating the incumbent Democrat:

“Somebody upstairs, somebody was fooling around saying: ‘You da man.’ No, we da team!” Perlmutter said in his victory speech. “Thank you very, very much.”

The race was being watched nationally as an indicator for just how many seats Republicans would win and had been featured in numerous media outlets as a harbinger of the 2010 midterms.

“It’s been a tough two years for America. And this race has been really tough and it really has taken all of us,” he told the crowd. “The support that I got from different organizations and different people was fantastic.”

In his concession speech, Frazier maintained a defiant tone.

“I’m very honored and proud to be someone who lives in this district with you. And I want to tell you right now that sometimes you fall down, but the real challenge of an American is how you get back up and keep moving forward,” Frazier said. “Folks, let me assure you, we are not done. We are not done.”

This was the closest election Perlmutter has had since first winning Colorado’s newest congressional district in 2006.

“We just had to fight and make sure we had the personal touch with every voter, either by phoning them or by going door to door, and that’s what made the difference,” Perlmutter said in an interview with 9NEWS. “I’m just very proud that we had such a team effort to make a difference, to win this thing.”

Appointed Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet, though clinging to a slim lead, has been pronounced the winner of Colorado’s U.S. Senate race by the Denver Post:

Appointed U.S. Sen. Michael Bennet will be elected to the U.S. Senate after pulling ahead of challenger Ken Buck this morning.

Long after most Coloradans — including the candidates and their supporters — had gone to bed, returns from Denver and Boulder moved Bennet past Buck and into the lead, 47.5 percent to 47.1 percent.

A recount would be required if the difference between the two candidates’ vote totals is less than one-half of 1 percent of the highest vote total, or about 3,900 votes based on current tallies.

Bennet leads by nearly 7,000 votes with an estimated 30,000 still to be counted in Boulder County.

Hearing reports that the race between Republican Scott Tipton and Democratic Rep. John Salazar has been called for Tipton, who leads by 11,000 votes with 92% of precincts reported.

Many political observers speculated that the Colorado U.S. Senate race would go down-to-the-wire, if not with the margin-of-error.

Late polling showed the race between Republican Ken Buck and Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet as one of the closest in the country.

Secretary of State-elect Scott Gessler told Battle ‘10 that a recount could take more than a month. Military and provisional ballots would need to be counted before a tentative final vote is achieved, or around 8 days after the election. If the margin remains within 0.5 percent, then the recount battle will ensue, as lawsuits fly.

It could be the middle of December before the result is finalized.

Local media is reporting a miscount/misreport by Democratic-heavy Boulder county. If this is true, this could shave Ken Buck’s lead down from well over 30,000 down to automatic recount territory.

**Update — Bennet back in the lead by 2,000. Automatic recount territory.

Ken Buck is now leading Sen. Michael Bennet by 31,000 votes.

This is the first lead for the Republican candidate. Boulder and Denver, Democratic strongholds, have not completed their reporting. Buck is awaiting the vote in rural counties, where Republicans traditionally do quite well.

With just over 1.2 million votes counted, Sen. Michael Bennet is hanging on to a narrow 8,000-vote lead.

Automatic recounts are triggered when the margin is 0.005 or one half of 1 percent. If 1.5 million votes are cast, that would be around 7,500 votes.

Could be a very long night . . .

Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D.) won another term in office by sweeping the three battleground counties that border Denver — Adams, Arapahoe, and Jefferson.

Ryan Frazier, the Republican, had hoped to play competitively in Adams and Arapahoe Counties, noting the advantage that Perlmutter held in Jefferson County, where he was a former state legislator.

Bennet (Incumbent)

523,110 48 percent

Buck

517,296 47 percent

59 percent reporting

CNN/Time had John Hickenlooper (D) beating Tom Tancredo (ACP) by 14, 51 to 37. They were the most recent poll to show the Democrat with a double-digit lead.

The result so far — Hickenlooper 53, Tancredo 37.