Story here. This means that I got at least one prediction wrong on Illinois, and it’s not a good feeling in this case. Fortunately, the other race where I may have been wrong has a Republican potentially winning in what was thought to be a safe Democratic district.

Looks like we called this one wrong, folks. According to My Stateline, incumbent Illinois Governor Pat Quinn has pulled out an almost 19,000 vote lead over Bill Brady. If Quinn is elected (which it looks increasingly likely he will be), there will be an interesting question about ticket splitters in Illinois, not to mention the question of how the pollsters got this so wrong.

That’s all but one race called in Illinois’s House races, and as of now, this blog looks to have a clean sweep. Moreover, Dold squeaked out by almost precisely the margin expected.

Pat Quinn and Bill Brady are deadlocked at 46 percent right now with precincts in the high 90′s reporting. Quinn holds a several-thousand-vote lead, which could easily switch with a recount. This makes the Illinois gubernatorial race Battle ‘10′s only wrong prediction thus far in Illinois or Ohio.

Kirk has won his election by two points. That’s close to our projection of three points.

Debbie Halvorson, Bill Foster, and Phil Hare have been thrown out of Congress by sizable margins, according to the latest projections from ABC News. IL-17, IL-14 and IL-11 have gone GOP, just as predicted.

By a 30 point margin, CNN is projecting that Jan Schakowsky will win in Illinois’ 9th District. I guess I was too optimistic to even project a small margin

Election Day!

Gubernatorial Race

Pat Quinn will lose to Bill Brady by a comfortable margin. Most polls suggest that this result will happen. The extreme amount of negative campaigning has worked against Quinn, who always had to make up an enthusiasm gap, and now has to contend with an electorate which is depressed as a whole, which will only lead to further Republican support.

I will also go out on a limb and say that Bill Brady will be the first governor of Illinois not to be indicted before or after leaving office in several years.

Senatorial Race

After all the nastiness, brutality and accusations, Mark Kirk will carry this race by three to four points, flipping Barack Obama’s old Senate seat and turning Illinois into a purple state, at best.

Kirk has polling on his side here, as well as a clearly defined narrative that Giannoulias lacks. Moreover, in recent weeks, Giannoulias has exposed himself as both a crook and a liar, as opposed to Kirk, who can only really be accused of having a swollen and delusional ego, at the very worst. Turnout in this race also favors Kirk, with suburbs outperforming urban areas.

Oh, and look for Mark Kirk to be contrasted ad nauseam with an unsuccessful Christine O’Donnell by the media in order to prove that “See? SEE?! You can’t nominate conservatives in blue states!”

House Races

IL-8: Melissa Bean by a mile. This race hasn’t been favored to flip by anyone.

IL-10: Dold by 1-2 points. Along with his most recent nervy attack ad, Dold has the fundraising advantage, and Seals recently has been making a fool of himself to the voters. It’s quite possible that Seals will win, but in Mark Kirk’s district with a Republican wave, I seriously doubt it.

IL-11: Adam Kinzinger will crush Debbie Halvorson, whose concession speech will be lifted wholesale from Scooby Doo: “And I would’ve gotten away with it too, if it weren’t for you meddling kids!”

IL-14: Randy Hultgren will defeat Bill Foster by a narrow but clear margin. Hultgren’s given the clearer answers on issues this election cycle, and has a Republican wind at his back that other prognosticators have picked up.

IL-17: Phil Hare’s concession speech? “I don’t care about the election returns on this, to be honest. I care more about all the children who want me to serve.” The only piece of this that will be right is that voters of the doomed Hare undoubtedly act like children.

Update: A reader writes in to ask where my prediction is on IL-9. Sorry – elections get away from you sometimes. At any rate, if you’d asked me last night what would happen to Schakowsky, I’d say she keeps her seat by a smaller than comfortable margin and goes back to Congress not chastened at all. But if Gallup’s election day numbers are to be believed, Pollak might have a shot. Moreover, his fundraising and unconventional endorsements make him a strong choice in the district. At this point, I’m still calling the race by about a point for Schakowsky, but do not take that as gospel. I am not prepared to rule out a Pollak win.

Four Days to the Election

Gubernatorial Race

• Pat Quinn, Rod Blagojevich’s Number Two, has the gall to question Bill Brady’s honesty and call his plans “nonsensical” in the pair’s final debate. Yeah, good luck with that, Governor. 
• Next time you talk about “nonsensical” plans, you might consider plans like letting inmates out well before their time served is up in a manner only left-wingers can support.
• Oh, and dumping millions of dollars of tax payer money into private industry, that too.
• Bill Brady, by contrast, is openly running to be Illinois’ Chris Christie.

Senatorial Race

• The Washington Post has picked up the story of how former Mark Kirk backers have swung to Giannoulias with their endorsements.
• This just as Kirk gets defensive and tries to paper over his Cap and Trade vote. That steady lead Kirk appears to be building might be more fragile than we think.
• To be fair, Giannoulias is being a hypocrite, too, having now gone after Mark Kirk for being too negative. And speaking of negative, gay rights groups are evidently angry that Mark Kirk doesn’t know too many gay soldiers. I’ll grant that this is a little weird — after all, he was in the Navy.

House Races

• The Chicago Sun-Times continues to put out good material on the race in IL-14, this time with contrasting answers from Bill Foster and Randy Hultgren on unions.
• The Daily Caller is evidently amused at Robert Dold’s recent attack ad against Dan Seals.
• Phil Hare and Bobby Schilling in IL-17 are still arguing over who told the truth in their debate. This race has to be depressing for populist Democrats, who are watching their union pals get hopelessly outclassed by the allegedly secretive groups that are backing Schilling. Worse for them, Schilling looks likely to pull it out. Surprisingly, in spite of this, Hare picks up an endorsement.

In last night’s Senate debate, Illinois Senate candidate Alexi Giannoulias announced his intention to go positive for the remainder of the campaign. Much as it’s easy to mock Giannoulias for choosing to go positive for all of five days (really daring move, that), it’s definitely one way to get voters to pay attention, given how much the negative advertising in this race has disengaged them from the campaign. Worse for Kirk, Giannoulias has picked up endorsements from groups that supported Kirk earlier in the campaign. And is publicly regretting some of his more over-the-top remarks.

I hate to say it, but Giannoulias is doing a good job pre-empting Kirk on looking like the nice guy, and Kirk’s lead isn’t nearly wide enough for him to discount the effects of that, even this late in the game. Yes, it’s disingenuous and cynical, but he needs to keep his eye on the ball.

Five Days to the Election

Gubernatorial Race

• According to Larry Sabato’s latest “Crystal Ball,” Illinois is drowning in red. As of now the Governors’ race is ranked as “Leans R,” as is the Senate race, as are the races in IL-11, IL-14 and IL-17. This is very bad news in an allegedly blue state, though it makes sense. Republican Bill Brady has an easy time in the Governors’ race, given that he can run against both Pat Quinn and Rod Blagojevich. And since everyone’s sick of the negative ads, Quinn’s officially got nothing popular to run on. Brady, on the other hand, has lots of popularity with the Tea Party, to say nothing of a convenient time running on economics when all his opponent has are social issues.

Senatorial Race

• Talking Points Memo is having trouble with the fact that Giannoulias tried to deflect conservative voters with a campaign trick. He also is losing black ministers fast. This after he and Mark Kirk had another catfight on television last night. An interesting point from Politico’s Ben Smith is that Kirk appears to be going for the Ron Paul school of anti-Iraq War rhetoric. Appropriate, given that Kirk can pretty much try anything in one of the most unpredictable races in the country.

House Races

• For the first time in seven years, Illinois may have more Republicans than Democrats in its Congressional delegation.
• Joel Pollak, Republican of IL-9, must be doing something right, because the antisemitic website Hamsayeh is accusing him of campaigning for “the Jewish interest.” Pollak is also being seen by the press as the most viable challenger Schakowsky’s had in years. Here’s hoping.
• We’re now up to reason number 14 why Phil Hare, Democrat of IL-17, is no good. But you can add being evasive and excessively populist in the only debate of the season to the list, just in case.
• Dan Seals, Democrat of IL-10, recently picked up support from anti-gun groups, cementing him as not exactly a conservative Democrat. Meanwhile, Robert Dold’s innovative new ad seems to have made Politifact both happy and unhappy at the same time. The ad was certainly smart, given that the race is so competitive, and viral exposure is always useful.
• The Chicago Sun-Times has a lot of coverage of IL-14′s candidates and their positions on the national debt. Bill Foster and Randy Hultgren have contrasting answers on video, so voters know who to pick in the increasingly competitive (and GOP-leaning) race.

Such is the state of the Chicago press that when Rahm Emanuel is asked tough questions (admittedly, in a somewhat pushy way, but still), one of the local reporters threatens to “deck” the questioner. Video below, courtesy of the Kelly Truth Squad:

Politico is out with a blog post on the most recent bit of sleaze from the Giannoulias campaign – evidently, they’re hoping that fringe candidate Mike Labno will pull a a Ralph Nader and steal enough votes from Mark Kirk for Alexi Giannoulias to win. Money quote:

A consultant to Democrat Alexi Giannoulias, Pete Giangreco, solved the mystery in a pre-debate press room this evening: It was, he confirmed, a “coordinated” product of the Democratic campaign, the latest in a series of such attempts by Democrats to drain Republican votes with more than a touch of deception.

Six Days to the Election

Gubernatorial Race

• Chicago Now has a hilarious satire of all the negative campaigning going around the state. Now if only we could get a parody of all the Democratic insiders showing up, as well. At any rate, a recent Chicago Sun-Times article has an interesting implication for the gubernatorial race — Bill Brady might be benefiting from (of all things) less exposure. Pat Quinn certainly isn’t benefiting from much – a prominent religious leader wants him to apologize for his campaign.

Senatorial Race

• There will be one final debate in this race tonight, and it could be a big one for Alexi Giannoulias. He’s hemorrhaging support from the gay community,  doesn’t seem to want to talk about Obamacare even in his own blue state, can’t seem to pick up support from independents and has Bill Clinton making hypocritical attacks on his behalf.

House Races

• Randy Hultgren, the Republican challenger in IL-14, is getting a lot of attention about his various political positions as his opponent flounders. This is Dennis Hastert’s district, so a conservative winning wouldn’t exactly be new, but this is still good news.
• Big Government has an excellent and entertaining revisit of Phil Hare’s (Democrat of IL-17) many embarrassments. This as the first debate between Hare and his challenger Bobby Schilling is set to air tonight. It looks to be amusing, at bare minimum.

One Week until the Election

Gubernatorial Race

• A new poll puts Bill Brady up against Pat Quinn, just as both are asked about those social issues no one cares about this year. Needless to say, the two differ there, just as they do everywhere else. Meanwhile, Quinn is trying to paint his opponent as (of all things) antisemitic. And hoping Bill Clinton gives him a buzz.

Senatorial Race

• It says something when the only debate Alexi Giannoulias can win is one where Mark Kirk didn’t show up. Though in all seriousness, Giannoulias is actually in trouble now — a major leader in Illinois’ African American community just endorsed Kirk. And even though Giannoulias’ people are happy with early voting, at the point where most local papers have endorsed Kirk and most national papers have soured on the race, they’ve lost most of their good will. Well, except for the Huffington Post, who have been getting…well, huffy about Mark Kirk.

House Races

• Bill Foster of IL-14 is apparently running a dishonest attack ad. And pandering to environmentalists. What a surprise.
• The Galesburg Register-Mail is shilling for Phil Hare and the Decatur Tribune is terrified that he might lose because his policies don’t work (like liberal immigration reform). Meanwhile, Bobby Schilling, Hare’s Republican opponent, picks up a big endorsement.

8 Days to the Election

Gubernatorial Race

• Pat Quinn and Bill Brady can’t even keep their claws off each other in Church. In fact, a Pat Quinn supporter even drops the dreaded “r-word” against Brady. Also, what is it with Democrats and modeling their campaigns after Glee? Geography is also playing a big part in the Governors’ race, with Quinn focusing on (surprise, surprise) Chicago, and Brady focusing everywhere else.

Senatorial Race

• The Chicago Sun-Times tries to be nice and make both Giannoulias and Kirk out to be good guys. Kirk’s starting to ever so slightly pull away. He also has another newspaper endorsement. Meanwhile, Giannoulias is getting investigated, but not until after the elections. He also wants the federal government to bail out Illinois. And is a draft dodger. In Greece. Yeah.

House Races

• IL-14 is heating up. Democrat Bill Foster is firing back against negative campaigning by his opponent, Randy Hultgren. Both he and Hultgren also endeavor to answer questions on health care. It figures that this race is one of the two most important in Illinois, according to the DNC. But Hultgren has some big names behind him, too, like the NRA.
• The Chicago Tribune is displeased with Dan Seals in the 10th District. That is all.
• There are now as many as ten reasons why Phil Hare should lose in IL-17. Also, he has union support, but that’s pretty much it. The race just was shifted into the “Leans GOP” column.

11 Days until the Election

Gubernatorial Race

• Holy decrease in the jobless rate, Batman! Now Pat Quinn has something to run on! The question, however, may be where to run with it. And unfortunately for Quinn, he can’t exactly run on the state of the Illinois treasury. But he can get cronies to help him run against Bill Brady’s legislative record. Because no one watched him run against it himself in the debate.
• On the other side, Brady is refusing to return money raised by people connected to ex-Governor Rod Blagojevich. And he also isn’t quite sure how many government workers he’ll have to lay off for his fiscal policy to work. But progressives don’t seem to care — they’re more obsessed with whether Bill Brady is on the side of the trees.

Senatorial Race

• Alexi Giannoulias channels his inner Richard Trumka and accuses Mark Kirk of “economic treason.” For holding a video conference with American businessmen who happen to work in Beijing. Seriously. Oh, and Giannoulias’ surrogates at the DSCC also apparently think Mark Kirk’s military record is something to attack. One can understand Giannoulias’ desperation — Kirk is up 2 even according to a Democratic-leaning PPP poll. I wonder if Bill Clinton feels his pain.

House Races

• Against all odds in IL-17, Phil Hare is definitely in trouble. And to make up for it, he’s touting his allegedly good record on military issues. We’ll see how well that stands up when he debates Bobby Schiling next week.
• Meet Bill Foster of IL-14, yet another Democrat in an allegedly blue state who’s vulnerable this election cycle. His means of attack against his opponent, Randy Hultgren, is to accuse him of not paying taxes. It isn’t working. Not at all.
• Debbie Halvorson of IL-11 is trying to demagogue economic issues and veterans’ issues to win against her challenger Adam Kinzinger, who is clearly ahead of her in enthusiasm. Too bad she’s dogged by corruption issues of her own.

12 Days to the Election

Gubernatorial Race

• Oh, irony. Pat Quinn, Rod Blagojevich’s successor, is attacking his opponent for being too connected to Blagojevich’s people because of (get this) one fundraiser. Oh yeah, and they’re both auditioning for Jesse Jackson’s support. It seems to be working better for Quinn. So yeah, it’s 12 days out and we’re still hearing nothing but attacks. Oh yeah, and Pat Quinn thinks the Internet is really, really great…for pork. But Bill Brady is going to cut spending, and this annoys the press.

Senatorial Race

• Alexi Giannoulias thinks Mark Kirk is lying about his involvement with a bill, but won’t come clean about any connections he has with Rahm Emanuel, Broadway Bank or with political support for a potential majority leader status for Dick Durbin. Even if he has some dodgy fundraising tactics, is anyone surprised that Kirk is leading? Still, neither one has locked up the independent vote completely.

House Races

• Joel Pollak, the Republican challenger in IL-9, is making great hay out of his Israel stance. He recently got interviewed by the Israeli News Network and was endorsed by the To Protect Our Heritage PAC. In contrast, incumbent Jan Schakowsky can only seem to pick up endorsements from fourth-rate papers. The Jerusalem Post, meanwhile, thinks Pollak is an effective campaigner.
• There are now seven reasons not to vote for Phil Hare, Democrat of IL-17, who has become a symbol for his party’s national ineffectiveness.
• Dan Seals, the Democrat running for Mark Kirk’s old seat, picks up an endorsement just as he and his opponent get grilled by students.

Looks like the Illinois Governors’ race is back in the Republican column:

Republican Bill Brady holds an eight-point lead over Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn in the four-way race for governor of Illinois.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Brady, a state senator, earning 45% of the vote to Quinn’s 37%.  Democrat-turned-independent Scott Lee Cohen gets six percent (6%) support, and Green Party candidate Rich Whitney has the backing of two percent (2%).  Another one percent (1%) favors another candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This race remains Leans GOP in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Gubernatorial Scorecard. 

Last week, Brady led Quinn 46% to 40%.  Whitney received two percent (2%) of the vote, while Cohen earned four percent (4%) support.  The previous survey was the first to include Cohen. Prior to that, Brady earned anywhere from 43% to 50% support in surveys dating back to early March.  In those same surveys, Quinn picked up 35% to 40% of the vote.

Oh, brother. Even the most charitable interpretation of this audio released by the Pollak Campaign in IL-9 can’t make this sound good — it can just make it sound stupid. The money quote from Jan Schakowsky below:

“All around the country, people are trying to replicate what we do in Chicago. They–we have a tradition of knockin’ on doors, of pulling people out–you know, people, they talk about ‘message’ and ‘persuasion.’ Here’s our message: ‘I don’t get off your doorstep until you get out to the polls and vote.’ That’s our message! That’s our message!”

Hey, yous don’t wants to vote, yous gonna regret it, you know what I’m saying, friend?

Two weeks to the election.

Gubernatorial Race

• Neither Pat Quinn nor Bill Brady is able to offer specifics in the Illinois Gubernatorial race, which is a veritable storm of platitudes and attacks. Even Bloomberg notices it.

Senatorial Race

• Mark Kirk is under attack for (of all things) maybe, possibly having something to do with Iran sanctions. And Alexi Giannoulias is under fire for his record on taxes. And apparently thinks President Obama made a mistake in focusing on health care reform! Also, both candidates have high-profile endorsements, with Giannoulias backed by current Senator Roland Burris and Mark Kirk backed by…most of Illinois’ newspapers? What? And this just as Politico calls it the most unpredictable race in the country.

House Races

• In IL-17, Democrat Phil Hare’s inability to defend his record is backfiring badly. In fact, he’s starting to sound like a broken record. And just as his races gets ranked by Politico as one of the most interesting in the country.
• The race in IL-11, between Democrat Debbie Halvorson and Republican Adam Kinzinger, appears to be a done deal. Barring any nuclear grade happenings, this race is dropping off the radar.
• In the meantime, why not take a look at IL-10, between Dan Seals and Robert Dold? Seals is already lying about Dold’s record on abortion, and still managing to lose the fundraising fight despite that. Looks like Mark Kirk’s old district might not flip after all.
• Jan Schakowsky had another debate with Joel Pollak in IL-9 last night, and by most accounts, Pollak mopped the floor with her. What a surprise — now he just needs to make up the polls.

15 Days to the Election

Gubernatorial Race

• Apparently it was possible for the Illinois elections to get more ugly. The debates are even more vicious, and the ads are delusional. But there is hope for the Republican in that Joe Biden dislikes him for being overly anti-union. Still, tag-line for the last two weeks? “This Time it’s Personal.“

Senatorial Race

• Poor Alexi Giannoulias — he looked to be getting so much better. But things aren’t so good for him now – he just flip-flopped on a free trade agreement with Korea, got outraised by Kirk by about $1 million in the third quarter, and has to resort to paranoid, overly PC claims about potential voter intimidation at a time when his big backers are campaigning inside polling places, to say nothing of hitting tired old attack lines. Small wonder Mark Kirk racked up three new endorsements.

House Races

• The Pollak Campaign in IL-9 sends out a shocking press release – Pollak has outraised incumbent Democrat Jan Schakowsky 2-to-1 in the latest quarter. That’s the most liberal member of the United States House of Representatives, and her head is on the chopping block. It might have something to do with the fact that she’s bad enough on Israel to bring Alan Dershowitz into the fight on behalf of her opponent, but that’s just a thought.
• Phil Hare in IL-17 is desperate - so desperate that he has to try to channel Grover Norquist and attack his opponent on taxes. Oh, and he has to rely on Dick Durbin to save him. One way or another, things won’t end well when Hare debates Bobby Schilling, his Republican opponent, who currently has him out-raised.
• But money isn’t everything. Just ask Debbie Halvorson in IL-11, who’s got Michelle Obama and $1.4 million in ads behind her and yet is still 20 points behind her opponent, Adam Kinzinger. Granted, it’s a very diverse district and Halvorson has a strong war chest, but that’s cold comfort.

Gubernatorial Race

Pat Quinn and Bill Brady clashed and, surprise surprise, Pat Quinn thinks his opponent is “heartless.” (Are we allowed to call him “brainless?”) He also apparently still thinks Brady would kill puppies — even though the ad in question is demonstrably false. Brady, however, just wants to get business back on its feet and says as much.

Senatorial Race

How dare Mark Kirk call out voter fraud in black neighborhoods, which the Justice Department has refused to prosecute! How dare he! Never mind that Michelle Obama already broke election law “inadvertently” by campaigning in a polling place! Yet somehow the Democrats think that getting money and support from Karl Rove is worse. And they’re doing push-polling to prove it! Kirk isn’t worrying — his fundraising is getting much better. And he even has David Brooks defending him.

House Races

The Schilling campaign in IL-17 hits Phil Hare. Hard. And Hare tries to get more pork.

Debbie Halvorson in IL-11 never met a pork bill she couldn’t support. That’s probably why Barack Obama likes her so much. And why Illinois voters do not.

Dan Seals, Democrat of IL-10, is ahead in the most recent poll, in what could be one of a only a few in the country to flip from Republican to Democrat. This interesting summary of the race might give some clues as to why. So might The Hill’s recent rundown of the current state of the race.

This press release gets sent around to prospective donors:

Big news – a poll released an hour ago gives us a 3-point lead in Illinois, 44-41. We’ve been on the air in 9 states, and polls show that we’re now leading in 7 of them.  

Your grassroots dollars ARE working in places like Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Illinois.       

But we’ll lose this momentum in no time if we don’t have enough money. Tonight marks this week’s Thursday deadline. And to keep the fight going in these states through the weekend, we need 1,215 donors to kick in $5 by midnight.   Will you help us out with $5 before midnight? We’ll match every dollar and double your impact.  

Thanks for doing everything you can to help Democrats win.  

Don’t get too overconfident guys – if Michelle Obama keeps campaigning in polling places, Mark Kirk’s worries about voter fraud might come back to bite you.

“CHICAGOLAND: FIRST LADY CAMPAIGNED INSIDE POLLING PLACE?”

Difficult to say anything beyond that.