The Seattle Times has called the race — the “Queen of Pork” has won a fourth term. Sen Patty Murray (D) will return to Capitol Hill, where she’ll find a much-depleted Democratic majority waiting for her.
“This evening, I called Senator Murray to offer my congratulations on her re-election to the U.S. Senate.
“I ran for the Senate because I believe we need a basic course correction from where Washington, D.C. has been taking us and to make sure this country is as free, as strong and as prosperous in the future as it has been in the past to preserve the best of America for future generations.
“That was a message that found a very receptive audience all across this state, though not quite receptive enough.
Poor guy. Another valiant effort. If only he had run in Delaware, Nevada, Alaska…
So it is that the same Washington state voters who overwhelming rejected ballot initiative 1098 — to impose a new income tax on high earners — have re-elected a Senator who has explicitly promised to do just that by letting the Bush tax cuts expire. Go figure.
Sen. Patty Murray (D) currently leads Republican Dino Rossi by just over 14,000 votes (less than one percent), with 62 percent of ballots counted. An estimated 500,000+ ballots remains to be counted, although it is difficult to be know the exact figure.
“No one knows how many ballots are left to count, since large volumes are in the mail and final return rate isn’t knowable,” Dave Ammons, spokesman for Secretary of State Sam Reed, wrote in an e-mail to seattlepi.com. “Both sides have legitimate theories for a path to victory, but it’s far too close to see how the offsetting trends play out. In my view, this is one of those classic too-close-to-call races. We need to let the vote tally continue.”
Exact numbers are tricky to come by, but we’ll take a stab. Prior to the election, the secretary of state estimated that about 60 percent of the total vote would be tallied Nov. 2. That would leave about 572,000 ballots remaining. King County officials say there could be about 350,000 votes still to count from the state’s largest county, which Murray was winning by more than a 60 percent margin.
Where can Rossi pick up votes? Places like Spokane and Clark County, which were favoring the Republican. In Spokane, there are about 100,000 ballots left to count, officials estimate. Rossi was winning 56 percent of the votes there. There also appeared to be about 100,000 votes left to county in Clark County, where Rossi was winning 54 percent of the vote.
Whatever the actual number of remaining ballots, a large chunk of them will be counted today and the results reported this afternoon (Pacific Time). BATTLE ‘10 will have those numbers as they come.
Both sides expressed confidence following the initial results. Sen. Murray told a crowd of supporters in Seattle last night: “We are winning tonight. We will be winning by even more tomorrow. We will win this race.”
Meanwhile, Rossi campaign manager Pat Shortridge wrote in a memo that “We are confident that the margins we are seeing throughout Washington State, combined with the state legislative victories, will put Dino Rossi ahead by an overwhelming margin.”.
Nearly all votes in Washington state are cast by mail, and must be post-marked (as opposed to received) by Nov. 2. Polling stations and ballot drop-offs are open until 8 p.m. (11 p.m. EST). Therefore, given the exceedingly tight nature of this race, we are unlikely to know the winner by tonight/early tomorrow.
The Secretary of State estimates that only 60 percent of ballots will be counted on Election night; those results will be released at about 8:15 local time. The next batch of numbers isn’t expected until Wednesday afternoon.
Washington has a history of close races. State law mandates a recount if less than 2,000 votes separate the two candidates after the initial vote, and both parties are preparing for the worst, hoping to avoid a repeat of the Franken-Coleman fiasco in Minnesota that dragged on for nine months.
Washington voters will remember that when Dino Rossi ran for governor in 2004, he lead the initial vote by 261 votes, and continued to lead after two subsequent recounts. However, following a third recount done by hand, Democrat Chris Gregoire was declared the winner by 133 votes, prompting numerous accusations of fraud and corruption from Republican supporters.
This year, neither side wants to take any chances. Teams of lawyers are on standby. State Democrats asked federal election officials back in August for permission to spend money preparing for a recount battle. The GOP has a website, nomorefrankens.com, devoted to that very purpose. “In ‘04 we just weren’t as prepared as we know we need to be now,” Rossi said recently. “Just in case.”
Not to make too much of this one poll, but it does have a number of attractive aspects (in addition to showing Dino Rossi in the lead of course). It has more than double the sample size of the next most recent poll, and its breakdown by party affiliation is entirely reasonable when compared to 2006 figures:
These numbers seem perfectly in line with a modest enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans and a slight uptick in independents, who are breaking for the GOP by considerable margins this year.
Overall, the poll has Rossi leading Sen. Patty Murray (D) 50 to 48 percent among likely voters. More significant, however, is the fact that among voters who said they had already sent in their ballots — 76 percent of those polled — Rossi leads 52 to 47 percent.
Among the remaining 24 percent who said that haven’t sent their ballots in yet (nearly all voting in Washington state is done by mail), Murray leads 51 to 45 percent, with 5 percent undecided. So assuming all 24 percent end up turning in a ballot, with the undecideds staying undecided, you get (roughly):
Rossi: 50.3 percent
Murray: 47.9 percent
Split the undecideds between the candidates and you get:
Rossi: 50.9 percent
Murray: 48.5 percent
Give all the undecideds to Murray and the Republican still wins:
Rossi: 50.3 percent
Murray: 49.1 percent
This is what PPP means when they say that “Murray’s ability to keep the race close is predicated on the 24 percent of respondents who have not yet done so returning their ballots” and “if Democrats in the state vote at a higher rate than response to our poll suggested over the weekend that would likely be enough to put Murray over the top.”
That’s a big IF, given the political climate even in blue state Washington, which does, contrary to popular belief, appear to have a significant enthusiasm gap favoring the GOP candidate. Conventional wisdom suggests that if anything Democratic turnout will be lower than expected.
The Hill reports that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has spent nearly $1.5 million on four close Senate races in Alaska ($163,550), Colorado ($425,000), Pennsylvania ($610,000) and Washington state ($270,000) in the last few days before Election Day.
If you had told DSCC chair Bob Menendez (D., N.J.) two years ago that in 2010 he would be spending almost $300,000 in the final week of midterms to defend Sen. Patty Murray’s seat, he would have laughed you out of the room. Who’s laughing now?
And it spells bad news for Sen. Patty Murray (D). Early voting figures and a new poll from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling suggest a surge of support for Dino Rossi. Among the 76 percent of voters who have already sent in their ballots, according to the poll, Rossi leads 52 to 47 percent.
Among those who haven’t sent their ballots in, Murray leads 51 to 46 percent, with five percent undecided. At this point it is doubtful that those undecideds will break for Murray. If they do end up voting, history suggests they will break against the incumbent, especially in a wave year like this one.
In order for Murray to win, Democrats must “vote at a higher rate than response to [the] poll suggested.” But all indications suggest that even in Washington state, Democrats are just not that motivated this year, or, at the very least will be hard pressed to compete with Republican enthusiasm.
State Democrats and Murray’s supporters have long-insisted that the “enthusiasm gap” sweeping most of the country is minimal to non-existent in Washington state. However, PPP argues that the opposite is true (emphasis added):
Washington has one of the more severe enthusiasm gaps in the country. Barack Obama won the state by 17 points in 2008 but those planning to vote this year supported him by only a 7 point margin.
Pat Shortridge, Rossi’s campaign manager, says that turnout trends evident in the early voting returns are very promising for Rossi. In a memo comparing this year’s numbers with those of the 2004 governor’s race between Rossi and current Gov. Chris Gregoire (ultimately decided by less than 200 votes) Shortridge writes:
As you’ll note, in 2004, turnout in the heavily Democrat 7th CD was about 1.4 percentage points ahead of the state average. This year, the 7th CD is 3.3 percentage points behind the statewide average. Likewise, the 1st CD was 4 percentage points ahead of the statewide average in 2004. This year, it is 2.7 percentage points behind.
Further, in 2004, the more Republican 4th CD was 3.8 percentage points behind the state average, while the 5th CD was just under 2.5 percentage points behind. This year, the 4th CD is almost 5 percentage points ahead, as is the 5th CD.
[clip]
Any notion that Democrat voters are just as motivated as Republicans, or even closing the [gap], is just not credible, and bears no relationship to the facts.
So it would appear that Democrats’ best efforts to motivate their base — sending Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Bill Clinton, Joe Biden, Jill Biden, to campaign on Murray’s behalf (all in the past couple of weeks) — have failed to drive Democratic turnout in early voting.
Maybe they are waiting until the very last minute to post their ballots. Or maybe Sen. Murray should start looking for a new job.
With Election Day imminent, the final PPP survey of the cycle shows Republican Dino Rossi leading Sen. Patty Murray (D) by two points — 50 to 48 percent — Rossi’s first lead in a PPP poll this year.
Get this: Among the 76 percent (!) of voters who said they have already turned in their ballots, Rossi leads by five — 52 to 47 percent. The remaining 24 percent support Murray 51 to 46 percent. But will those hold-outs be motivated enough to vote? Murray better hope so, because as it stands, she looks set to get swept up in the coming wave:
“A lot of the time in a wave election all of the close elections end up tilting away from the party in power at the end,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “If that proves to be the case this year Patty Murray could be one of the victims of it. This is going to be a very close race that we may not know the outcome of for several days.”
A source familiar with the Rossi campaign echoed this sentiment in an e-mail to BATTLE ‘10:
This is a classic year for the adage ‘the incumbent gets what the incumbent gets’ in the pre-election survey. An undecided voter is VERY unlikely to break for an incumbent, especially an 18-year Democrat incumbent, this year.
There is a lot of confidence in the Rossi camp, and a lot of despair among liberals. Even Chris Mathews and Howard Fineman are predicting a GOP win in this race.
The results for this year’s Washington State Mock Election are in, and Dino Rossi (R) is the winner. Of the more than 15,000 K-12 and home-schooled students who voted, 53 percent chose Rossi, compared to 47 for Sen. Patty Murray (D).
Not surprisingly, they also voted yes on ballot measure 1107, which would repeal the tax on candy and soda. Initiative 1098, a measure to impose a state income tax on high earners, passed among students in grades 6-12, but was rejected (in simplified format, obviously) by grades K-5.
A new SurveyUSA poll has Sen. Patty Murray (D) tied with Republican Dino Rossi at 47 percent, but the momentum is clearly in Rossi’s favor. Recent polling shows the Rossi’s numbers relatively unchanged, while Murray’s support is eroding:
Public Policy Polling (10/14-10/16): Murray 49 — Rossi 47
SurveyUSA (10/11-10/14): Murray 50 — Rossi 47
This is not to say that Rossi’s support is static, but rather as more voters make up their minds heading into Election Day, it appears that the Republican challenger is simply outpacing the Democratic incumbent. If the current trajectory holds, Patty Murray (and the Democratic establishment) could be in for a real shocker.
A look at some key data from the latest poll:
• Among voters who say they have already returned their ballot (most voting in WA is done by mail) Rossi leads by two — 49 to 47 percent. Among voters who “promise to mail back the ballot but have not yet done so,” Murray leads by two — 46 to 44 percent.
• Rossi leads among independent voters, 50 to 40 percent.
• What age gap? Murray’s rally with President Obama at the University of Washington last week was a concerted attempt to bring out the youth vote for the Democrats. But did it work? Murray ‘s lead among voters aged 18-34 is just three points — 46 to 43 percent.
• Closing the gender gap. Murray’s lead among female voters has been as high as 17 points. It is now down to six.
• Among voters who said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting this year, Rossi leads — 61 to 33 percent.
With only four days left to vote, these are not the sort of numbers any incumbent wants to see. Murray should be worried.
Update: Desperation in the air. From the PeopleforPatty Twitter account: “RT @alexjon: SurveyUSA shows Murray with strong advantage among those who haven’t voted yet, SO DO IT!”
A two point lead (46-44) among people who haven’t voted yet but “promise” to send their ballots in later is a “strong advantage?” For an 18-year incumbent? In a year like this? Let’s not get carried away.
Rasmussen’s latest poll, released today, shows Republican Dino Rossi slightly edging Sen. Patty Murray (D) by a single point — 48 percent to 47 percent — among likely voters, with just two percent undecided (three percent support “some other candidate” even though no other candidates will appear on the ballot).
An identical poll taken just last week had Murray ahead by three points — 49 percent to 46 percent — so this latest result appears to indicate significant momentum in Rossi’s direction. A look at other recent polling reveals a clear pattern:
Public Policy Polling (10/14-10/16): Murray 49 — Rossi 47
SurveyUSA (10/11-10/14): Murray 50 — Rossi 47
The fact that Murray can’t crack 50 percent this close to Election Day can only benefit the Republican challenger. The timing of the poll further suggests that much-touted visits from Democratic heavyweights such as former president Clinton, Joe Biden, and both Obamas, did little to boost Murray’s campaign, and instead may have had the unintended effect of fueling support for Rossi.
Hoping to become the 51st Republican in the Senate, Dino Rossi makes his case to Washington state voters — why Sen. Patty Murray needs to go, and why he is the right candidate to replace her — in this extended web video:
As Rossi likes to say: After Nov. 2, “no do-overs.”
But not in the hopey, feel-good kind of way. She may have gone to D.C. as a “mom in tennis shoes” with “the best of intentions,” but after 18 years Sen. Patty Murray is just another pork-spending, back-room dealing, party-line incumbent (who isn’t shy about running false attack ads, either). As Marc Ambinder writes in The Atlantic, it appears that Murray has gone from “ultimate outsider” to “ultimate insider.” With a less than a week to go until Election Day, that is story line Dino Rossi is pushing in these two new ads:
Speaking with NBC’s Chuck Todd on The Daily Rundown earlier today, former Rep. Martin Frost (D-Texas) called the Washington state senate race “a coin-flip,” further indication that Democrats aren’t so confident about Murray’s chances for re-election. Either way, it’s going to be close.
The outcome of the race between Sen. Patty Murray (D) and Republican Dino Rossi could very well determine who holds a majority in the Senate next year. Both parties are treating it as such. Money is pouring in, as are the big name personnel. This is especially true on the Democratic side – former President Clinton, President Obama, Vice President Biden, have all recently stumped on Murray’s behalf. First Lady Michelle Obama and Jill Biden are in town today. One local politician told BATTLE ’10 this is the most politicized he has seen the state in almost a decade.
Given its status as a solidly blue state – Obama won by 17 points in ’08 – Washington perhaps is an unlikely venue for so much high profile consideration. Murray’s seat might well be safe in an ordinary year. Of course, this is not an ordinary year and Dino Rossi is no ordinary GOP candidate. Some believe he is the only one who could have seriously challenged Murray’s seat. And he certainly has. Recent polling shows the race neck and neck.
Rossi told reporters on a conference call this afternoon that all the attention Murray has received is an indication of how worried the Democrats are about losing what could be the much-coveted 51st Senate seat. “Her D.C. friends are coming to bail her out” Rossi said. “It’s a sign they think she’s in trouble.”
Rossi described his travels across the state and the outpouring of support his campaign has received. “Luckily the fire marshal hasn’t shown up, I think we’ve been way over capacity at many of theses rallies,” he said.
The former state senator touted his record of “balancing budgets without raising taxes.” When asked for specifics regarding what he would cut from the federal budget, Rossi shot back: “After actually writing budgets I know it’s not one thing, it’s not five things, it’s not a thousand things, it’s more than that,” he said. Current spending levels, he said, were unsustainable.
He continued to hammer his opponent for her record on spending, earmarks, and other policies he says are bankrupting the country. Last week, Rossi told BATTLE ’10 he was running because “the future of America is at stake,” and he felt like he was in a position to make a difference. “The situation’s bad enough to get me out of political retirement,” he said.
Rossi has repeatedly predicted on the campaign trail that unless the country has a serious course correction soon, “I think we’re going to wake up 24 months from now in a country we don’t recognize.”
“The American experiment doesn’t work on autopilot,” he said. “Every generation has to step up.”
Rossi remains confident about his chances on Election Day. “We are in a position to win this race,” he said. At a business roundtable meeting in Everett, Wash., last week, Rossi said the race would ultimately come down to who decides to vote. “We won’t get any do-overs [after Nov. 2],” he said.
Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz) says the earmark process in Congress is “the gateway to corruption,” which is why he is supporting Republican Dino Rossi in his race against Sen. Patty Murray (D) in Washington state.
“For years we’ve watched the corruption that has resulted from [earmark spending] and I do mean corruption,” McCain said today on a conference call in support of Rossi’s campaign. “Senator Murray has been one of the leaders of this disgraceful misuse of taxpayer’s dollars.”
Rossi has pledged to ban earmarks until Congress produces a balanced budget. Murray, in contrast, ranks ninth among Senators in earmark spending and has been unabashed in her defense of the process on the campaign trail, touting her ability to “secure investments” for the state of Washington. She has already requested nearly $1.4 billion in earmarks for next year. McCain lashed out at the earmark process and all those who participate, Democrats and Republicans alike.
“There are three kinds of senators,” McCain said. “Democratic senators, Republican senators, and appropriators.” He added that he has “vociferously opposed” the efforts of this third group to partake in pork spending, and suggested an outright ban on earmarks. “I’d just say no more,” he said. “Just don’t do it.”
McCain echoed many of Rossi’s attacks on Murray’s spending record, as well as her connections to lobbying groups, criticisms that Politifact determined to be “mostly true.” The Kitsap Peninsula Business Journal today examines in detail the extent of Murray’s dubious relationship with lobbying firms that currently employ former members of her staff, who have received nearly $20 million in federal funds earmarked by Murray.
McCain stopped short of saying Murray herself was corrupt. “Whether she’s corrupt or not I will let other people make that judgment,” he said, but reiterated his belief that the process itself was corrupting. “I’ve seen it with my own eyes,” he said.
He mentioned in particular the $17 million earmark Murray entered into a defense appropriations bill to supply speed boats to the Navy and Coast Guard. As it turns out, neither the Navy nor the Coast Guard requested the boats, and ended up giving them away. “What could we have done for the men and women serving in military with the millions wasted on these boats?” McCain said.
Asked if a ban on earmarks would negatively impact states like Washington, McCain said he didn’t think so. He said states like Alaska and Mississippi that historically request a lot of earmarks “really haven’t benefited by it” and compared pork spending to government welfare. “I don’t think it helps to dole out free money,” he said. “When you put people on welfare it doesn’t really help.”
McCain said lobbyists are the real winners in an earmark process that is based more on the individual clout of senators like Murray – currently the number Democrat in the senate – than on the actual needs and requirements of the states.
“Americans are sick and tired,” he said. “We’ve got to stop pork barrel spending, we’ve mortgaged our children’s’ futures and that’s why [I am] supporting Dino Rossi.”
How to take a crowd of 3,000 crazed college kids screaming their lungs out for the greatest president on earth, and not only shut them up, but bored them to tears in less than minute? Sen. Patty Murray has the answer — prolonged, nonsensical football metaphors:
Almost as amusing in text:
When you get the kickoff in the endzone way behind and you got to pick it up and you got to get it all the way to the other end, kinda happened to us when he became president and we got this little football from the Bush administration waaaay back in the endzone, had to pick it up and play by play by heard-earned yard a hard-earned yard get it up the field to the 50 yard line, and it was tough work. We’ll I’ll tell you what, when you get to the 50 yard line you don’t say ‘shoo, that was hard I’m going home.’ You don’t say ‘I don’t like that last play I’m giving up.’ You pick up that football and you keep going and you get your team together ‘til you get it into the endzone and that’s what we’re doing under the leadership of this president.
Never should have run that one out, Patty. Next time just take a knee.
Mike Dunn’s work duties didn’t always include scrubbing toilets. He is the president of Dunn Lumber, a fourth-generation family business operating out of Seattle for more than a century. But like most businesses in a struggling economy, Dunn’s company is doing everything it can to cut costs, and Friday was his turn to clean the bathrooms.
Dunn’s great-grandfather, Albert L. Dunn, founded the company in 1907. It has never failed to turn a profit. But now, that streak is at risk. Dunn points to an atmosphere of uncertainty at all levels of government — on taxes, healthcare, and a host of economic issues – that is stifling demand for his products. “When rules are changing and taxes are increasing and regulations are increasingly, it causes everyone to pause, and that’s what we’re seeing today, a pause,” Dunn says.
Republican Senate hopeful Dino Rossi and former Secretary of Labor Elaine Chao joined Dunn at his branch in Bellevue on Friday to discuss private sector job creation (or lack thereof). Rossi touted his small business background as a former real estate executive and current member of the Dean’s Advisory Board for the School of Business at Seattle University, and slammed the policies of his opponent, Sen. Patty Murray (D).
“Business owners have no idea what government’s going to do to them; they don’t know what health-care is going to cost, they don’t know about the 2001, 2003 tax cuts, whether they’ll be reauthorized or not,” Rossi said. “For someone to actually invest and grow their business too, they’re going to have to be able to plan two, three, five years in advance, and right now you can’t plan for next week.”
Secretary Chao said jobs aren’t being created in the private sector because businesses lack confidence in Washington, and the Democratic leadership, which includes Murray included as the fourth-ranking Senate Democrat, bears responsibility for this environment.
Of course, Republicans aren’t the only ones critical of the Obama/Reid/Pelosi approach to the economy. A lot of Democrats are running away from the President’s economic agenda this cycle by attacking the stimulus package or calling for all the Bush tax cuts to be extended. Rep. Dan Boren (D., Okla.), a truly rare breed this election cycle – the safe Blue Dog — told NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE in an interview last month that Obama’s antagonistic relationship with business community has been the biggest shortcoming of his presidency.
Murray has dabbled in advocating fiscal restraint, but it’s hard to take her seriously. In a recent campaign ad, she says: “in these tough times, every penny counts,” a sentiment was nowhere to be found at Murray’s rally with President Obama at the University of Washington, held Thursday. Murray and her fellow Washington state Democrats embraced a message of greater spending, euphemistically described as “investing in the future.” She has repeatedly asserted that the stimulus package and the numerous federal earmarks she has secured have been vital to bringing jobs to Washington state. “I think it’s an indication of [Murray’s] lack of understanding of basic economics – to think that the government creates jobs,” Chao said.
Dunn knows this firsthand. With the prospect of higher taxes looming, he said he wouldn’t be able to hire new workers anytime soon, and just hoped he would be able to maintain his current staff. He also worries about the health-care packages he currently provides, and whether he’ll be able to continue doing so when new restrictions under the health-care reform bill are phased in over the next few years.
Mark Sjolund, manager of the Bellevue branch, has been with Dunn Lumber for 18 years and said the company has always treated its employees like family, and provided a generous health-care plan. Asked if he though he would be able keep that plan, he just shook his head and said “I don’t know.” More uncertainty.
The past couple of years have been especially hard for managers like Sjolund, whose pay is in some ways tied to the success of the company (or lack thereof). As profit’s dwindled, so did end of the year staff bonuses that many employees rely on. Dunn was able to give out small raises last year, but has been forced to cut down dramatically on overtime.Dunn began 2010 thinking it would be a good year. Relative to an abysmal 2009, he predicted that sales would go up at least 10 percent. Instead, same-store sales decreased by six percent. The company is struggling because many of its customers are struggling as well. But even those who can afford to spend in this environment are holding back, waiting for an indication from Washington. The company is constantly bidding on jobs. Dunn says there is plenty of interest, but “not a lot of people are pulling the trigger.”
Sjolund said a majority of the store’s customers potentially fall within the infamous “top two percent” income bracket on which the Democrats want to allow the Bush tax cuts to expire. “It’s very frustrating because those are the people that hire the contractors to work on their place, that hire the laborers, that buy the materials from us,” he said.
All Dunn can do is hope that 2011 will be better than this year. Having Dino Rossi in the Senate would be a good start, he said. When asked what kinds of policies he would like to see out of Washington he preferred a principled approach” as opposed to a “pragmatic ‘we need to fix something’ approach.’” Because businesses, like humans, are pretty good at sorting out their own problems.
“The economy’s quite flexible, and we deal with a lot of waves that come our way from the political system, but as the waves get bigger and more frequent and less predictable, that’s when the boat starts to take on water,” Dunn says.
Barack Obama attended a massive “Get Out The Vote” rally at the University of Washington today on behalf of Sen. Patty Murray. BATTLE ‘10 was on hand, and a bit unnerved by the flashbacks to 2008 brought on by the event. Thousands of mostly college-age supporters waited for hours in the cold, damp morning to get inside the Hec Edmundson Pavilion to see the President speak. Not everyone got in. The crowd was so large that hundreds were diverted to overflow seating in the nearby football stadium. Roughly 13,000 are estimated to have attended.
The line to get in stretched for more than a mile (quite literally).
The enthusiasm for the President was undeniable. He came here to rally the Democratic base and rally they did. But will it be enough? “If everybody that voted in 2008 shows up in 2010, we will win this election. We will win this election. But you’ve got to come out and vote,” Obama shouted over deafening cheers. But his year’s voter turnout promises to look dramatically different that it did two years ago. The crowd was excited to see the president, for sure, but whether or not they will be inspired to vote for Murray is another question.
Washington is one of the few remaining states where Obama’s approval rating is still close to 50 percent, and Murray is one of the few remaining incumbents who is still asking for his help. She certainly needs it — the latest polling shows a dead heat between her and Republican Dino Rossi, which is a little surprising given that Obama won here by 17 points in 2008. The president’s visit (his second of the year) certainly indicates that Democrats are worried. Kenneth R. Mayer, political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told BATTLE ‘10 several weeks ago that President Obama’s attendance at a similar campus rally in Madison, on behalf of embattled Sen. Russ Feingold, was an enormous sign of weakness. “It’s like a Republican having to go to Dallas or Salt Lake City,” Mayer said. Today’s rally had a similar feel to it — Obama in his liberal bubble, safe from the real world. It was clear that many in the crowd firmly believe Obama is the greatest person on the planet.
For her part, Patty “Queen of Pork” Murray stuck her guns, touting her ability to bring federal dollars back to Washington state. Of course, this crowd ate it up. Meanwhile, Dino Rossi held a press conference to discuss Murray’s record on earmarks, reiterating his pledge to ban the earmark process until there is a balanced budget. BATTLE ‘10 will have that story, and more, shortly.
President Obama appearing in front of a bunch of liberal college kids at the University of Washington can’t be a whole lot different than tween heartthrob Justin Bieber stopping by an all-girls middle school to say hello.
Speaking to an overflow crowd of several thousand in the University football stadium (before entering a packed basketball arena), Obama had to humbly explain to them that he is not, in fact, the greatest President on earth, but merely “pretty good”:
A McClatchy-Marist poll shows Sen. Patty Murray (aka “The Queen of Pork“) with a one point lead over Dino Rossi — 48 to 47 percent among likely voters:
“This is indeed a cliffhanger, any way you carve up the numbers,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., which conducted the survey. “The road to a Republican majority in the Senate could go through Washington state.”
The result is in line with other recent polls that have Murray leading slightly, but within the margin of error. According to the poll, Murray leads 47 to 42 percent among registered voters, but this is unlikely to reflect the true state of the race, given the lack of voter enthusiasm among Democrats. President Obama won 58 percent of the vote in Washington state two years ago, but currently has an approval rating of just 48 percent among likely voters (which is still several points higher than in other parts of the country).
Each candidate is winning his/her party, but independents support Rossi by a 57-36 percent margin. Of the voters polled, 32 percent said they were Democrats, 21 percent said Republicans, and 47 percent said they were independents. It’s all going to come down to who shows up to vote — figuratively speaking of course, because most of the state votes by mail.
Washington state has a history of close races, and there is every indication that this one could keep us in suspense all night on Nov. 2, or perhaps much, much, longer:
If the Washington state race is as close as the poll shows, the outcome could take days or weeks to determine. Rossi lost his first race for governor by 133 votes. It took 58 days to determine a winner, and then a court case challenging the outcome stretched into early June of the following year.
According to a new Public Policy Polling survey, Sen. Patty Murray leads Dino Rossi by two points — 47 to 49 percent — among likely voters. The result is virtually unchanged from an indentical poll taken in July, which had Murray leading 49 to 46 percent. PPP calls the race “the most stable in the country”:
The reason for the stability is that voters know these candidates, they know what they think of them, and nothing they’ve heard during this campaign has changed those opinions in one direction or the other. In July Murray’s approval rating was 46/45. Now it’s 47/48. In July Rossi’s favorability was 43/48. Now it’s 44/49. This is a race where persuasion means little and everything will hinge on who bothers to cast their ballots in the next few weeks.
Barack Obama won Washington state by 17 points in 2008, but this year’s likely voters supported him by only seven percentage points. The candidates’ support breaks down on largely partisan lines. Murray is winning 93 percent of Democrats, while Rossi is getting 91 percent of Republicans. Among Independents, Rossi leads 49 to 43 percent.
The race is difficult to poll because of the prevalence of mail voting in the state, which has already begun — 14 percent of those surveyed had already cast their ballots, and supported Murray by a margin of 52 to 47 percent. The race is going to come down to who decides to vote, and will likely keep a lot of us up late on Election Day.
A new GOP poll shows Dino Rossi leading Sen. Patty Murray among “likey voters” — 47 to 46 percent. Among those determined to be “most likey” to vote on Election Day, Rossi leads 50 to 45 percent.
Rossi also has a slight edge in favorability. According to the poll, 47 percent of likely voters view the Republican favorably, compared to 44 percent who view him unfavorably. Murray’s rating is evenly split 46-46 favorable/unfavorable.
A separate, independent poll released over the weekend that had Murray leading 50 to 42 percent. Polling has been all over the place so far, and complicated by the prevalence of mail-in voting. The only safe conclusion to be had right now is that this one is definitely going down to the wire.
Question: Healthcare reform. For Sen. Murray: Was reform hastily passed? Would you vote for it again? Was needs to be fixed?
Murray: Insurance companies are the bad guys. Reform lets people choose coverage and keeps costs down. Says she absolutely believes that the bill will need changes. But the core of the bill means “families will control coverage” not “some DC bureaucrat.” Glad she voted for it, will work to make needed changes.
Question for Rossi: What kind of healthcare reform do we need?
Rossi: Asks Murray which part of the bill she wrote (she claimed to have in the previous debate). Points out bills flaws. This is government intrusion into healthcare. Says he doesn’t want healthcare administered “with all of the passion the IRS can muster.”
Murray: Says she wrote the workforce section of the bill that incentives students to go into healthcare professions.
Rossi: We need to repeal healthcare. Lists GOP ideas for HCR, “won’t cost taxpayers a dime.”
Question: Immigration.
Rossi: Argument “academic” until border is secure. We need a “tall fence with a high gate.” Cannot allow criminals into the country. Suggests a “virtual Ellis Island.” Need high-tech and temporary worker programs.
Murray: Talks about importance of securing Northern border (?). Says she has fought for tougher border patrol to the North. Businesses are in jeopardy because Agriculture lacks skilled work force. Should pass the DREAM act so children have a path to citizenship. Wants comprehensive reform.
Rossi rebuttal: Questioner asks what we should do with children of illegal immigration. Rossi says he hasn’t heard any good ideas. First we need to secure the border.
Murray: Says she’s sorry Rossi hasn’t heard about the DREAM Act. We should pass it so children “don’t have to live in the shadows.” Either on its own or part of comprehensive reform.
Question: Social Security.
Murray says she will continue to fight against privatization. Wall Street collapse highlights dangers of privatization. Rossi wants to take away benefits. We need to make “tough budget cuts” she will look at them, but she will fight to keep benefits.
Rossi says biggest threat to Social Security is the debt that Murray helped create. Nothing but IOU’s in Social Security “trust fund.” Mentioned his 16 year daughter asks “how much do I owe?” If 16 year old recognizes problem, why can’t Sen. Murray?
Murray: Questioner asks if she will support raising retirement age. She skirts the issue. Talks about Bush tax cuts and Wall Street. Says she will wait until commission reports to make “courageous decisions.”
Rossi: Looking forward to commission report as well. Murray voted to tax Social Security. 18 years in DC has changed her.
Question: DADT
Rossi: Wait for report from commanders and troops and how policy effects our readiness. We need input before a vote. Issue not something to rush, to have unelected judges to impose their opinions.
Murray, again, she has “talked to…” service members who (surprise) think DADT is unfair. She wants to repeal, DADT is wrong. Everyone should be allowed to serve, no “second class citizens.” She sponsored legislation to repeal.
Rossi: Already answered question, will talk about veterans. Praises Murray’s work with veterans. Thanks service member for what they’ve done for the country.
Murray: Touts work with veterans. “I don’t discriminate.” Gay or straight.
Sen. Murray asks Rossi how he can support extending Bush tax cuts while at the same time pledging to reduce the deficit and balance the budget. Says top 2 percent should have a tax cut. How will Rossi pay for tax cut for top earners.
Rossi: Sen. Murray didn’t reauthorize cuts for anybody. Murray voted against cuts in 2001 and 2003. 252 times Murray has voted to raised taxes. Murray will continue to raise your taxes. Murray ranked most liberal Senator in DC, to the left of Bernie Sanders, a record of “taxing, spending and growing government.”
Rossi’s question: Trade. Murray voted for a bill that sparked a tariff war with Mexico. Teamsters Union supports Murray and encouraged vote. Asks her to explain herself.
Murray: Saftey issue for truckers. Asked administration to help with policy. But Rossi didn’t answer question about tax cuts.
Rossi: We need to cut taxes because it will kill jobs. Not too hard to figure out. He understands small businesses. Tax increase not the answer.
Murray: Two reasons we are in trouble. Bush’s policies — tax cuts not paid for, Wall Street “gambled with your money.” Rossi will repeal Wall Street reform I voted for.
Convince a member of the opposite party to vote for you:
Murray: Says she worked across party lines with Sens. Collins, Enzi, McCain. Most important things to come home and work with constituents then go back to DC and get the job done.
Rossi: Problems too big for one problem to solve. Talks about time balancing budget in state senate working with Democrats but without raising taxes. Touts support from independents and “Dinocrats” and welcomes support from all. Says he wasn’t planning on running but we need a new course, can’t do it in partisan fashion.
Closing Remarks:
Rossi: Speaking about his grandparents from Italy. They came to American to have a better life for themselves and for their families. America is a great land of opportunity. Anything is possible. Choice in this election is clear. If look like the status quo, Murray is the choice. If you want freedom back, control of healthcare, money, and you life. Don’t abandon me on Nov. 2, I can’t do this without your support. Looks forward to next 16 days “on the road to victory.”
Murray: We do have a very clear choice. Rossi will repeal Wall Street, she won’t let bankers rob from you. Rossi will repeal healthcare, return to Bush policies, tax cuts and unfunded wars. Talks about her family’s plight during hard economic times and make parallel to nation plight. We need to make “frugal decisions” but “invest in the future.”
Intro: “The race is tight. The stakes are high. The winner will help decide the balance of power in the Senate.”
Rossi opens with “America is in trouble.” Talks about government intrusion into everyday life over the past 20 months, a “fundamental redefinition of America.” Says we can’t let that happen. Mentions his wife and family, how his wife asked him “what kind of country do you want your children growing up in?” Why he decided to run. Hopes to highlight differences during the debate.
Murray says families are struggling because of “mismanagement and greed on Wall Street.” Says “this state is my family.” Talks about her small town roots and values, says she will make sure to look out for the little guy. Working together we can find solutions.
Question: Voter have been inundated with negative ads. Moderators played a number of clips. “If elected, what will you do for people of Washington state?”
Murray says she will talk with community leaders about what is needed and she will go to bat for them. Touts small business lending bill. Jobs are number one focus. Support for veterans. Balance the federal budget responsibly. Her message — she is listening to Washingtonians. That’s what she’s done, wants to keep doing it.
Rossi: “We are on a fiscal cliff.” Says when communist China says we’re spending to much we’re in bad shape. Touts time in state senate to balance budget “without raising taxes.” Talk about all the awards he has received. It’s possible to be fiscal conservative and have a social conscience.
Murray rebuttal: tax cuts for middle income families. More about jobs.
Rossi rebuttal: we must reauthorize all the Bush tax cuts or unemployment will go up. If not, small business owners will be hurt, kill jobs.
Question: 3 things you would do to fix economy.
Rossi: Talks about time traveling around state who are ashamed to be unemployed, employers say they can’t plan, hire because there’s no certainty. Sen. Murray’s votes for bill like healthcare, not reauthorizing tax cuts will hurt economy. They don’t need Sen. Murray’s earmarks, stimulus, etc. Don’t punish businesses for success, you want them to do it again, and again, and again.
Murray keeps with her message: “I come home and talk to community leaders… go back to Washington and gets them what they ask for” Said she helps to get investments for community and small businesses. Tout small business bill, says Rossi opposed it.
Rossi rebuts: Murray thinks government creates job. Entrepenuers must create jobs, been working in American for over 200 years. The stimulus failed.
Murray says she is surprised by the answer, because she has been to work sites, says Rossi will give these workers a pink slip.
Question: Where will you cut the budget? Specifics.
Murray: Every family, every business tightening its belt. Fed govt must do the same. Talk about $14 billion she cut from President’s budget. “We have to look at every aspect of our budget.” Harkens back to Clinton time. We had a surplus then but Bush squandered, tries to link Rossi to Bush policies. Can’t afford tax cuts for the wealthy.
Rossi: Murray number 9 in earmarks. She has changed since first going to Washington 18 years ago. Talks about ties to lobbyists and former staffers now working as lobbyists and campaign contributions. Exactly what is wrong with Washington. Ban earmarks until budget is balanced.
Murray: I certainly didn’t hear a balanced budget in all of that answer.” Everything on the table. Tough choices. Blah blah. Hey, remember when Clinton had a surplus?
Rossi: Murray has already requested 1.4 billion in earmarks for next year. Says one thing, does another.
Most Commented on NRO
The Editors: Pressuring the Chief
Comments (108)
Noah Glyn: Breaking: Gay D.C. Superhero Revealed
Comments (92)
Katrina Trinko: Poll: Obama 4 Points Ahead
Comments (75)
Robert VerBruggen: Changing Stories in theMartin . . .
Comments (74)
Noah Glyn: Ashley Judd: Obama ‘HasAn . . .
Comments (64)
Montford & Ambler: Climategate Continues
Comments (60)
Robert Costa: How Hatch Wooed Palin,and . . .
Comments (59)
Katrina Trinko: Romney Behind Obama inThree . . .
Comments (51)