Wisconsin was the only state in the country last night to see the its governorship and Senate seat flip parties, in addition to both chambers of the state legislature. In Wisconsin’s case, every changeover was a victory for the Republicans:

Scott Walker (R) defeated Tom Barrett (D) 52 to 47 percent.

Ron Johnson (R) unseated Sen. Russ Feingold (D) 52 to 47 percent.

Republicans made dramatic gains in both the state Assembly and state Senate, winning decisive majorities in each. Democrats went into Nov. 2 with advantages of 50-45 in the Assembly and 18-15 in the Senate. The GOP now has a 59-38 majority in the Assembly and a 19-14 majority in the Senate.

Republicans also took back a majority of seats in the state’s House delegation. Sean Duffy and Reid Ribble both won seats currently occupied by Democrats, while Dan Kapanke came up just short against Rep. Ron Kind. Republicans now hold five of Wisconsin’s eight House seats.

The change reflects a dramatic shift in the support of Wisconsin’s independent voters from Democrats to Republicans over the past two years. Independents went 59 percent for Obama in 2008, but Feingold got just 43 percent and Barrett 42 percent of the independent vote.

Early exit polling reveals a widespread sense of frustration among Wisconsin voters. Almost two-thirds said they are dissatisfied or angry with the way the federal government is working. More from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel:

More than four in ten Wisconsin voters say that compared to two years ago, their financial situation is worse. Only one in ten say it’s better.

In the preliminary Wisconsin exit polls, support and opposition to the Tea Party are running about even. Slightly more people have unfavorable views of the Democratic Party than favorable views. But attitudes toward the Republican Party are quite similar.

The exit polls also ask voters to choose between two classic views of government: that it should do more to solve problems, or that it’s doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals.

More Wisconsin voters are identifying with the second view than the first.  

Would seem to bode well for political outsider, and businessman, Ron Johnson.

Sen. John McCain (R., Ariz.) had some kind words for his former Democratic ally Sen. Russ Feingold (D) on Fox News this morning. The Hill reports:

Asked on Fox News if he feels bad when his Senate colleagues lose, McCain said, “Yes, and if I may say so, I’ve grown to have the greatest respect and affection for my friend, Russ Feingold. He’s an honest man, a man of great integrity, and I’ve grown to appreciate him more than ever. And it looks like he might be a casualty tomorrow.”

McCain did not campaign for Feingold’s opponent, Ron Johnson, nor did he donate to Johnson’s campaign.

Not only are Wisconsin Republicans thrilled at the prospect of unseating 18-year incumbent Sen. Russ Feingold (D) this cycle, they are also hoping to achieve the biggest statewide GOP shift in the country, at every level of government.

Democrats currently control just about every aspect of Wisconsin politics — the governorship, both houses of the state legislature, five out of eight House seats, and both Senate seats. Not for long.

Slim Democratic majorities in the State Senate (18 D, 15 R) and State Assembly (50 D, 45 R) are widely expected to flip to the Republicans, propelled by the larger GOP wave and strong candidates at the top of the ticket.

Scott Walker (R) should win comfortably over Tom Barrett (D) in the gubernatorial race. In fact, Barrett never really had a shot. Walker has consistently maintained a lead of about 7-8 points (on average) since polling began in January.

As has Ron Johnson, the “jewel in the crown” of the state GOP (and perhaps the Tea Party writ large) this year. At this point it seems the question is not if Johnson can send Feingold packing, but by how much? Some polls have had the Republican up double digits; a blowout win would send a powerful message. Johnson will no doubt pull a number of down-ticket candidates across the finish line with him.

As for the House, the GOP has a very good opportunity to pick up three Democratic seats, and is in no danger of losing any Republican-held seats. Former MTV Real World star and lumberjack aficionado Sean Duffy (R) looks well-positioned to defeat Julie Lassa (D) in the race for Rep. Dave Obey’s seat in the 7th District. Likewise, Reid Ribble should unseat Rep. Steve “I’m writing the health-care bill” Kagen (D) in the 8th district. Rep. Ron Kind (D) looks slightly more secure in the 3rd district against Republican Dan Kapanke, though he will have to get lucky to survive this wave. Our own Jim Geraghty is predicting a Kapanke win, and BATTLE ‘10 concurs.

Expect to see six Republicans in the House delegation Wisconsin sends to the 112th Congress, leaving Democrats with representatives from the 2nd District — which includes Madison, a.k.a. the “Berkley of the Midwest” — and the 4th district — in downtown Milwaukee, which voted 75 percent for Obama — seats Republicans could hardly ever hope to win. That said, Kenneth R. Mayer, professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, tells BATTLE ‘10 that Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D., WI-02) has been running ads in Madison against her opponent, 27-year-old businessman Chad Lee (R). Merely an “”insurance policy” to be sure, Mayer says, but almost unprecedented in a district that voted nearly 70 percent for Obama.

For Democrats, “this must feel like a trainwreck,” Mayer says. Indeed. Such a big shift in Wisconsin this cycle could have significant implications for 2012. The state has voted Democratic in the last six presidential contests and went 56 percent for Obama in 2008, but could be on the verge of turning red. It certainly will be after tonight.

WI-07 — Having run perhaps the most entertaining ad campaign of the cycle, Republican Sean Duffy is back with another lumberjack-themed spot, “Bulls Eye”:

Sen. Russ Feingold’s hometown newspaper, The Janesville Gazette has endorsed the Democratic incumbent’s opponent Ron Johnson (R) for Senate:

Russ Feingold champions himself as a maverick who votes his conscience.

When his party most needs him, however, he’s there. In recent months, he voted for two major spending packages—the stimulus bill and health care reform.

When General Motors was rolling out of Janesville, Feingold lacked visibility. He issued statements from Washington or sent staffers on assignments. If having a Janesville native in the U.S. Senate is to our advantage, it wasn’t apparent when his hometown needed him most.

The vultures are circling in Wisconsin. A new poll from Democrat-affiliated Public Policy Polling has Republican Ron Johnson leading Sen. Russ Feingold (D) by nine points — 53 to 44 percent — among likely voters, with three percent undecided (full results here). This is what the Associated Press might call a “slight lead.” PPP writes that Johnson is headed for a “comfortable win” because of two key factors:

1) Wisconsin has one of the largest enthusiasm gaps of any state in the country. Although it appears Democrats will have turnout issues pretty much everywhere the problem is unusually severe in Wisconsin. Those saying they’re likely to vote this fall report having voted for Barack Obama by only 3 points in 2008. He actually won the state by 14 points.

2) Barack Obama’s popularity in Wisconsin has declined at a rate much faster than the rest of the country and the state’s Democratic Governor is one of the most unpopular people holding his position anywhere in the country as well. Obama’s approval with likely voters is only 37%, with 54% of voters disapproving of him. Those bad numbers are partly a function of the state’s more conservative electorate this year but worrisome for the President is that only 70% of voters in the state who supported him in 2008 still approve of the job that he’s doing. Meanwhile 93% of McCain voters disapprove of his performance.

Voters aren’t just frustrated with Feingold — 44 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove of his job performance — they like his Republican opponent. Johnson has a 51 percent favorability rating (including 10 percent of Democrats, 16 percent of “liberals,” and 19 percent of Obama voters). Just 35 percent said they have an unfavorable view of Johnson. Indeed, as PPP writes: “Johnson has proven to be on of the strongest Republican Senate hopefuls anywhere in the country.”

A few points:

• Of the polls respondents, 53 percent were women. Feingold has been leading among women throughout the race, and is clearly trying to court female voters in this new ad. Johnson is way ahead of Feingold among men, 59 to 39 percent, but according to the poll, is also winning 48 percent of women (Feingold, 49 percent).

• It appears that Feingold’s efforts to rouse the college-age liberal base was somewhat successful — he leads Johnson 52 to 40 percent among voters aged 18-29 (an improvement from previous polls). However, Johnson leads in every other age group. Among voters 30-45, he is crushing Feingold, 64 to 33 percent.

• Johnson continues to lead among independents, 52 to 41 percent.

• Of the 13 percent who said they have already cast their votes, Johnson leads 54 to 44 percent.

Sure, anything can happen. But at this point all the money in George Soros’ bank account couldn’t save the “maverick” from Middleton. Even the White House seems to have written Feingold off. The Washington Post reports that President Obama opted against a last minute trip to Wisconsin after “the Senate seat began to slip from [Feingold's] grasp.” Truth is, it’s been slipping for a while.

Former Senator Russ Feingold (D., Wis.). Has a nice ring to it.

During his successful 1992 Senate campaign, Sen. Russ Feingold famously made a contract with “the people of Wisconsin” and wrote it on his garage door:

He touted this pledge in a well-known campaign ad:

Notice item #1: “I will rely on Wisconsin citizens for most of my campaign contributions.”

Well, people of Wisconsin, consider your contract void. According to Feingold’s third quarter FEC fundraising report, 72 percent of donations to his campaign came from outside the state:

Indeed, once it became clear that Feingold was in trouble, Hollywood and other liberal interest groups like MoveOn.org opened their wallets to save their “progressive hero.” Now we’re seeing the result. For Feingold, the self-professed “clean campaigner” and co-author of campaign finance reform legislation, this is probably not how he wants to finish out what is likely to be his very last Senate campaign — coffers filled with George Soros and Big Hollywood money. Maybe that’s why he’s been putting out such fluffy campaign material lately.

Unfortunately for Feingold, he’s not running in California. The latest Rasmussen poll shows him trailing Republican Ron Johnson by seven points — 53 to 46 percent — among likely voters, with just one percent undecided. Looks like Feingold’s contract is about to expire anyway.

Johnson campaign manager Juston Johnson issued the following statement to BATTLE ‘10:

Career politicians’ promises don’t mean much. Russ Feingold promised to reduce the deficits, yet he’s voted to pass the largest deficits in history onto the backs of taxpayers. Russ Feingold promised to tackle the debt, but it has grown by a whopping $10 trillion since he entered office. Now, who can be surprised that he turned his back on one of the first promises he made to the voters of Wisconsin by taking the lion’s share of his campaign contributions from out-of-state. Russ Feingold isn’t a maverick, isn’t independent, he’s just another Washington politician.

Who else is covering this? Certainly not the Associated Press.

Give him some credit. After starting off on a rather negative note, and despite a few hiccups along the way, Russ Feingold appears determined to finish out what could be his last Senate campaign in the manner of a true “clean campaigner,” with these puff pieces:

2008 Libertarian Party presidential candidate Bob Barr endorsed Sen. Russ Feingold (D) today in a radio interview:

What I look for in Washington are folks in the Senate and the House who put the Constitution first. Not the “R” or the “D”, not partisan politics but the Constitution. And what you have in Russ, and I have worked closely with him over a number of years to try to rein in the Patriot Act, to try to rein in the government surveillance and so forth – this is a man who understands the Constitution, who supports and fights sometimes against his own party to defend the Constitution in the Congress of the United States in ways that are much more consistent and much more proactive than a lot of Republicans.

In an new video reminiscent of those used against Sen. John McCain in 2008 (“the fundamentals of the economy are strong”), Ron Johnson’s campaign skewers Sen. Russ Feingold for his repeated attempts to defend the stimulus package by insisting that the economy is doing pretty well. How well? “It’s going gangbusters”:

Check out Johnson’s op-ed: “My Opponent Knows Where Washington Is On A Map; I Don’t And I Never Will.”

The Daily Kos/PPP released a new poll of Wisconsin’s 8th congressional district that shows Republican candidates strongly positioned heading into Election Day.

House:

Republican Reid Ribble leads Rep. Steve Kagen (D) by three points — 40 to 37 percent — among likely voters, with 23 percent undecided. Ribble is winning independents 41 to 31 percent.

Favorable/Unfavorable:

Kagen — 28/30

Ribble — 27/27

A lot of “undecideds” and “not sures” in this race, as you can see. That can only end up helping Ribble, especially with Ron Johnson at the top of the ticket (see below).

Senate:

Ron Johnson leads Sen. Russ Feingold by seven points — 52 to 45 percent — among likely voters, with just three percent undecided. A closer look at the data reveals that Johnson is winning across the board. Among those who said they would vote for Johnson:

– 56 percent of independents

– 16 percent of Obama voters

– 13 percent of “liberals”

Johnson is winning every age demographic. Among voters 30 to 45, he’s up 16 points — 57 to 41 percent. And despite Feingold’s best efforts to rally his college-age base, Johnson leads by 6 among voters 18 to 29.

Favorable/Unfavorable:

Feingold — 47/48

Johnson — 50/41

Most striking is the how few voters report being “undecided” in this race. Most other polls reflect this as well. Voters have made up their minds, and that’s bad news for Feingold.

In its editorial endorsing Republican Ron Johnson over self-described maverick Sen. Russ Feingold (D), The Beloit Daily News takes a sledgehammer to Feingold’s favorite talking point:

There may be no greater indicator from the Atlantic to the Pacific this year of the full measure of dissatisfaction Americans are feeling toward their national government — Russ Feingold is in trouble.

It seems like just the other day liberal Democrats were talking up a possible Feingold run for the presidency, touting both his progressive history and his occasional willingness to go sideways against his party. Feingold always has brought forth those maverick occasions at election time, as evidence that he’s not a lockstep my-party-right-or-wrong kind of guy.

And, frankly, we have admired those sideways votes.

Still, the truth is that while those votes served Feingold well in election years, they came when the die already was cast and the outcome was not in doubt. Here’s a better measure of Feingold’s service in Congress: The liberal Americans for Democratic Action organization’s ratings show Feingold voted for their position 95 percent of the time in 2009.

Ron Johnson’s latest ad is all about manufacturing, something Johnson knows a thing or two about. “Not long ago, manufacturing drove America, providing good jobs, and a good living for Wisconsin families,” he says in the ad. “Misguided policies from Washington,” he says, are getting in the way:

BATTLE ‘10 is certainly not the first to suggest that AP’s reporting is riddled with liberal bias, but it’s worth pointing out a particularly egregious example.

Sen. Russ Feingold (D) recently tweeted a link to an AP story “assessing” the Wisconsin Senate race between Feingold and Republican challenger Ron Johnson. The Huffington Post promptly featured the story on its website. Not surprising, given the headline: “Wis. Senate race pits maverick against ‘rich guy.’”

The story’s author, Dinesh Ramde, first caught the attention of BATTLE ’10 by writing that Feingold was “slightly trailing” his opponent at a time when the RealClearPolitics average was + 9 for Johnson.

As the headline indicates, the story itself is about as balanced as a DNC press release:

With a restless anti-incumbent mood throughout much of the country, conventional wisdom suggests that voters might prefer the challenger, Republican businessman Ron Johnson.

Swap out “incumbent” for “Democrat” and you’d be closer to the truth. GOP Sens. John McCain (+28), Chuck Grassley (+25), Johnny Isakson (+22), David Vitter (+16), and Richard Burr (+14) seem to be doing just fine despite this “restless anti-incumbent mood.” Feingold’s support for an unpopular stimulus package and a health-care bill that a majority of Wisconsin voters want repealed might have something to do with it. However, the author didn’t think it necessary to include these details. Irrelevant!

But Feingold has been popular throughout his political career, so much so that he’d likely be cruising to a fourth term right now if the economy hadn’t tanked.

Love the caveat — “if the economy hadn’t tanked.” A bit like saying the Ground Zero Mosque would be breaking ground right now “if not for 9/11.” Is there anything that wouldn’t be dramatically different if the financial meltdown had never happened? John McCain might be president.

The article breaks down the candidates in terms of pros and cons — pros for Feingold, cons for Johnson. Feingold is a humble, gifted genius who has “made a career of doing things his own way”:

[Feingold] traces his independence back to his childhood. While politics and religion are taboo topics at some dinner tables, he says that wasn’t the case in his Janesville home. His family had spirited conversations that helped him hone his debating skills and sparked his desire to enter politics.

Feingold was always a gifted student. He graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Madison with honors, became a Rhodes scholar at Oxford University and earned his law degree with honors from Harvard University.

Meanwhile, Johnson is an under-educated hypocrite who rarely tells the truth. And of course, a “rich guy.” Ramde writes that Johnson attracted the Wisconsin Republican Party’s attention primarily because “he has plenty of money and has been willing to spend it.”

Andrew Welhouse, spokesman for the Wisconsin GOP, issued the following response to BATTLE ‘10 regarding Johnson’s appeal as a candidate:

The fundamental issue in this race, like many others, is job creation and getting Wisconsin back on track.
 
On both counts, Ron Johnson has a background you couldn’t draw up any better if you tried.  A manufacturer and accountant, who has never run for anything before, taking on an 18-year incumbent and lawyer in an anti-establishment year with an unpopular party in power.

Every single instance where Johnson is deemed to have “stumbled” on the campaign trail is mentioned. Not a word about Feingold’s controversial campaign ads, one of which the Associated Press itself called “misleading,” that have drawn considerable criticism, especially given Feingold’s reputation as a “clean campaign” advocate. 

Check out the disparity in the language used to describe the two candidates:

For Feingold:

“standing up for his principles”
“A smooth talker who enjoys meeting voters”
“doing things his way”
“a gifted student”
“cemented Feingold’s reputation for standing up for his principles”

For Johnson:

“That story contradicts what [Johnson] said early in the race”
“stumbled on occasion on the campaign trail”
“drew scorn”
“drew criticism “

Overall, the piece is really one or two sentences shy of an outright endorsement, but with a headline like that, why bother? To suggest that “Wis. Senate race pits maverick against ‘rich guy’” lives up to the AP’s professed standards of “providing distinctive news services of the highest quality, reliability, and objectivity” constitutes either willful ignorance or deliberate dishonesty.

BATTLE ‘10 suggests a new headline: “Wis. Senate race pits entrepreneur against future ex-Senator”

Here’s the latest ad from Sen. Russ Feingold. It is a direct response to opponent Ron Johnson’s ads using a whiteboard (see here and here). There he goes again with his Maverick tagline: “I’m Russ Feingold and I support this message.” The line of attack — Johnson has no plan — is probably the most effective angle Feingold can push at this point. He’s still going to need a miracle to save his seat.

BATTLE ‘10 was intrigued by the ad’s ending line: “When times are tough, who do you trust to stand up for us?” or perhaps more accurately: “who do you trust to stand up fruss?” (Get it?) An attempt at subliminal mind control? Or was that really the best take they could come up with? See/hear for yourself:

A new survey from St. Norbert College/Wisconsin Public Radio shows Sen. Russ Feingold (D) neck and neck with Ron Johnson (R). Among likely voters, 49 percent said they would vote for Johnson, while 47 percent said they would vote for Feingold, marking the highest percentage Feingold has received in independent polling since May, according to RealClearPolitics. Johnson, on the other hand, has not polled below 50 percent since late August, weeks before the Republican primary. Nine out of ten voters said they were either “somewhat” (9 percent) or “very” (81 percent) unlikely to change their vote before Election Day.

UPDATE: A reader offers a link to a piece on why this and other St. Norbert College polls ought not be trusted.

WI-08 — Michael Barone writes on NRO that for a number of House Democrats, voting yes on Obamacare was probably a career-ending decision.You can put Rep./Dr. Steve Kagen (D., Wis.) firmly in this group, and his downfall couldn’t be more emblematic of the Democratic failure (and hubris) when it comes to health-care reform.

The GOP has been hammering Kagen ever since footage surfaced of the 2-term Congressman striding confidently down Capitol Hill, jacket slung over his shoulder, while the Obamacare “negotiations” were taking place. When asked about the bill, Kagen responds: “I am writing the health-care bill. What would you like in it?” Kagen clearly didn’t realize at the time that he was sticking a knife in a career by making that comment. After all, his party’s leadership thought passing a massive health-care overhaul that most Americans opposed would be a good idea. Now, a majority of voters in Kagen’s home state of Wisconsin want the bill repealed. The NRCC has made good use of that clip in a pair of devastating ads targeting Kagen:

Kagen has responded by running what has to be one of the most desperate, dishonest campaigns of the year, leveling countless outrageous accusations at his Republican opponent Reid Ribble. For instance, in this ad about Social Security:

WI-07: Fans of Duffy’s previous ads will be disappointed in his decision to abandon the lumberjack theme is his latest spot, which highlights his time as Ashland County District Attorney:

“Usually it’s Joe Biden who makes the gaffes, but Julie Lassa holding a Milwaukee fundraiser, with a DC insider, to prove she’s the right person to represent Northern Wisconsin? That might take the cake,” Wisconsin GOP chairman Reince Priebus said in a statement to BATTLE ‘10.

Duffy and Lassa are running to succeed outgoing Appropriations Committee chairman David Ovey (D), who is retiring after 30 years in office.

Ron Johnson’s campaign reported raising nearly $2.1 million since the August 25 pre-primary period (through Sept. 30). He has also contributed an additional $2.4 million of his own money since then. Since announcing his candidacy in May, Johnson has now raised nearly $4 million and contributed nearly $7 million of his own money. Shortly after he entered the race in May, when Johnson was asked how much of his personal fortune he was willing to spend on his campaign, he answered: “All of it.”

“These are serious times right now, and our nation cannot continue heading in its current direction,” Johnson said in a statement. “Voters understand that Senator Feingold has been part of the problem in Washington and his job-killing policies must end.” His campaign said the numbers indicate “major momentum” on the Republicans behalf.

Meanwhile, Sen. Russ Feingold raised $3.3 million during the same period. His campaign now has $3.5 million cash on hand heading into the final stretch. Johnson’s campaign reported having nearly $2 million cash on hand.

“Our campaign is fueled by grassroots support and we have both the resources and momentum we need moving into the homestretch of the campaign,” said Campaign Manager George Aldrich. “Ron Johnson and the corporate special interests are using their big checkbooks to outspend us, but we will not be out-organized and this election will not be bought; it will be decided by the people of Wisconsin and our grassroots support.”

Researchers recently found that more Senate campaign television ads had aired in Wisconsin during the past month than in anywhere else in the country. Between Sept. 1 and Oct. 7, more than 18,000 individuals ads have run in the state. With the race as contentious as this one has been so far, Wisconsin voters can expect more where that came from in the next few weeks.

A number of good omens for GOP candidates in Wisconsin this week, as Republicans look well-positioned to pick up Russ Feingold’s Senate seat, at least two House seats, including that of outgoing House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey (D), and the governor’s mansion. Here’s a rundown:

• Ron Johnson: (Senate) Larry Sabato joined other political handicappers in moving the Wisconsin Senate race from “Toss Up” to “Lean Republican.” Johnson continues to lead by significant margins the polls.

• Sean Duffy: (WI-07) A new poll from The Hill has Duffy leading state Sen. Julie Lassa by nine points — 44 to 35 percent — among likely voters, with 18 percent undecided. Duffy leads in every major demographic except voters over age 55, according to the poll. He has a 17 point lead among Independents.

• Reid Ribble: (WI-08) The DCCC announced it was canceling its remaining ad reservations on behalf of Ribble’s opponent Rep. Steve Kagen (D), a pretty clear indicator that Democrats are no longer confident in Kagen’s ability to hold his seat. Meanwhile, the NRCC and several GOP-allied groups have ramped up their ad campaigns against Kagen.

Mark Jefferson, executive director of the Republican Party of Wisconsin, said Democrats have only themselves — specifically their handling of the economy over the past two years — to blame for their electoral misfortunes.

“The Democrats would be doing great right now, except that people tend to notice when their wallets are empty, government spending and debt are skyrocketing and there are no jobs,” Jefferson said in a statement to BATTLE ‘10. “If this election is a referendum on the status quo – the Democrats’ status quo – there are going to be a lot of pink slips on November 2^nd with their names on them.”

• A new CNN/Time poll shows Ron Johnson leading Sen. Russ Feingold 52 to 44 percent among likely voters. The result does indeed “suggest that [Feingold] is fighting for his political life,” as the poll points out, but that is hardly news to anyone who has followed the race over the past month or so.

Even among registered voters, Johnson still leads 48 to 45 percent, according to the poll. That ought to be frightening news for Feingold, as it marks a turnaround from some earlier polls that showed him leading among registered voters. For an incumbent to be this far below 50 percent this close to Election Day, well, there’s a reason why most handicappers no longer view this race as a pure “Toss Up.” This says it all: Johnson leads 57 to 38 percent among likely independent voters.

• The New York Times has weighed in on the race, in an editorial titled “Uphill in Wisconsin,” declaring Monday night’s debate in Wausau, Wis. a resounding victory for Sen. Feingold (BATTLE ‘10 respectfully disagrees) and praising the incumbent Democrat for defending his support for unpopular measures like Obamacare and the stimulus package — policies that the ungrateful masses would support too if they weren’t so busy taking orders from Glenn Beck. The Times’ take on the race, and the overall political mood of the nation, can be summed up in this one (partial) sentence: “The public’s lack of attention to detail, and Mr. Johnson’s willingness to exploit it, could end the career of Mr. Feingold…” Boo. Hoo. 

In summary (emphasis added):

Many Democrats are running away from their solid accomplishments of the last two years, apologizing for their association with President Obama. Mr. Feingold is one of the very few with the self-confidence to offer a full-throated defense of his votes.

But the Wisconsin electorate he faces seems to have lost its progressive streak and become more like other Midwestern states. Several polls have shown that the number of likely voters who consider themselves conservative has risen from a quarter of the electorate to nearly half. The misinformation and simplistic solutions propounded by talk radio and the Republican Party are having an effect even in a state that preferred Mr. Obama by 14 points two years ago.

Around the country, the Obama voters who were so energized in 2008 are rueful and dispirited, taking their cue from the timid races run by so many fearful Democratic candidates. Mr. Feingold is making the case that there is a choice to make on Nov. 2 and that there is a need for thoughtful voices in Washington.

Yes, it seems that enlightened, “progressive” Wisconsin, where voters shrewdly embraced the humble wisdom, postpartisan rhetoric and realistic promises Mr. Obama was peddling in 2008, but have since soured — through a combination of ignorance and mind-control — on his “solid accomplishments,” is in real danger of becoming “more like other Midwestern states.”

As for that final sentence — “Mr. Feingold is making the case that there is a choice to make on Nov. 2 and that there is a need for thoughtful voice in Washington.” — BATTLE ‘10 agrees, and refers you to the top half of this post.

I wrote previously about how Wisconsin’s vulnerable Democrats are attacking their opponents’ positions on Social Security. Well, now Sen. Russ Feingold is getting in on the fun with this new ad, in which he goes after his opponent Ron Johnson for saying he would keep “all options on the table” when it comes to Social Security reform. Feingold has said he thinks privatization — which he calls “turning Social Security over to Wall Street” — of any kind should be “off the table.” And he wants you to know he means it. Literally:

This latest ad from Senator Feingold is just another desperate attempt to mislead voters and distract from his record in Washington.  Senator Feingold has made a career of using Social Security as a political weapon.  He’s had 18 years to fix the program to honor the promises to seniors that depend on Social Security and to stabilize the program for future retirees.  He didn’t do it.  The one constant in Senator Feingold’s plan is that he has no regrets for raiding Social Security surpluses for 18 years of $2.2 trillion.

Thomas Sowell further examines where the two candidates stand on Social Security here.

 (Yawn). A new poll from Rueters-Ipsos show Ron Johnson with a seven point lead over Sen. Russ Feingold — 51 percent to 44 percent among likely voters. It’s funny to think that less than a month ago, this would have been considered shocking news.

According to the poll, voters think Johnson, a local plastics manufacturer, is “the best person to help generate jobs in Wisconsin,” by a margin of 49 percent to 36 percent compared to Feingold.

Voters see Feingold, on the other hand, as “part of the problem with politics right now in this country,” by a 42 to 28 percent margin (see here for more on Feingold’s problem with the number 42). Just the latest in a long series of troubling signs for the embattled incumbent:

“With some of the right messaging and campaigning and higher Democratic turnout than anticipated, Feingold could pull this back down, I suppose, but it’s not looking very good right now,” said Ipsos pollster Julia Clark.

Voters said Feingold’s support for Obama’s healthcare reform this year made little difference to their preference.

Clark said Feingold is likely suffering from an anti-incumbent backlash against Washington.

“I don’t think it’s that he’s seen as incompetent or weak on any particular issue, I think it’s simply that this is a race where there’s a very specific set of circumstances that means incumbency is no good thing,” she said.

No doubt many Democrats would like blame all their midterm woes on “anti-incumbency” fever, but if they think that’s a sufficient explanation for why a state that voted 56 percent for Obama in 2008 is now poised to elect a Republican Governor and Senator by significant margins, and potentially flip three Democrat-held House seats this cycle, they likely do so at their own peril.