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PENNSYLVANIA: HOW THE SWING GOES [Chris Lilik 10/19 01:33 PM]

The Keystone State is always listed among the swing states, but how much is it really in play? Depends who you ask.

Today's new Survey USA Poll shows Kerry beating Bush by 6 points, and other polls continue to show Kerry with a slight lead, while most project a closer two to four point race.

Over the past week there have been rumors that the Bush campaign was cutting down its TV ads and pulling out of PA (see here and here), as well as rumblings that key out of state volunteer blocks were being shifted to Ohio instead of Pa. But this Thursday Bush will be in Hershey and Cheney will be in Scranton, and Bush is heading to Wilkes-Barre the following day, so this rumor should be taken with a grain of salt.

The Bush campaign has also been very busy hiring more and more operatives all over the state. This is not to say the Kerry team has not been effective as well, with reports that Kerry signs are popping up in traditional GOP Philadelphia suburban areas where Democrat signs have never been seen before. Like most of the state, Kerry also seems to have a sign advantage in areas like Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) and Blair County (Altoona).

Speaking of signs, mysterious Kerry/Specter signs are appearing in the Philadelphia area, financed by a group called the Philadelphia Education Project. The real story here is that the committee was apparently started by GOP Specter operative Roger Stone to push Kerry and Specter.