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IOWA: DIVIDING AND CONQUERING [David Hogberg 10/19 02:30 PM]

Brian has gotten Iowa off to a great start, so let me just add a few points of information.

Iowa can be divided up into political thirds. The Western third, which encompasses all of Congressional District 5, is heavily Republican. The middle third is a mix, with heavy Democrat areas like Des Moines and GOP areas like the suburbs. The eastern third, which traces the Mississippi, is heavily blue collar and heavily Democrat. However, note that the three congressional districts that touch the eastern border, 1, 2 and 5, all have Republicans representing them (Jim Nussle, Jim Leach, and Tom Latham, respectively). The reason is that a lot of the Democrats here are culturally conservative. These are the ones that are likely to support a lot of Bush’s actions in the war on terror, and are opposed to gay marriage. Bush has room for vote gains in this area over 2000.

The one exception is the Iowa City (a.k.a., “The People’s Republic of Johnson County”) where the University of Iowa is located. Jim Leach represents this area, and as a result he has opposed the action in Iraq and opposed the 2003 tax cut. Say what you will (and I will—he’s a RINO) he gets reelected in a district that should have a Democrat representing it.

Iowa is a something of a bellwether state for Democrats. The GOP hasn’t won a presidential race there since Reagan’s landslide of 1984. (Yes, it even went for Dukakis). Although we’ll probably have a pretty good idea of how the race is shaping up by the time Iowa is called on election night, a win by Bush there and you can bet that Bush is doing well across the nation. Of the last five polls done in Iowa by firms not representing one of the parties, Bush lead in two, Kerry leads in two, and the other is a tie. If Bush starts to open a lead in the Hawkeye state, Kerry is in trouble.