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MINNESOTA: GROUNDSWELL FOR W.? [Scott W. Johnson 10/19 08:16 PM]

Knowing how close they came to carrying the state for Bush in 2000 and how much damage they might inflict to Kerry's prospects this year, Minnesota Republicans badly want to detach the state from Kerry's column on November 2. Having elected a Republican senator, a Republican governor, knocked off an incumbent Democratic congressman, and substantially added to the Republican majority in the state of House of Representatives in 2002, however, some party insiders have feared that the party may have reached a high tide that year.

Despite these fears, however, portents of the state's continuing transition to red-state status abound. One such portent indicated by party insiders to me today was the groundswell of support for the president that was manifested at the Minnesota State Fair in St. Paul in late August and early September. The state fair provides the preeminent venue for retail politics; the party carefully plans the use of its booth at the fair each year. Although fair regulations prohibit giving away campaign merchandise, the party exhausted its original supply of 110,000 Bush-Cheney buttons and bumper stickers in the first two-and-a-half days of the 12-day fair. The party woefully underestimated the reserves of enthusiasm that had yet to be tapped.

Since Bush narrowly lost the state in 2000 and Kerry has held a lead in virtually every public poll over the past five weeks, party sources express guarded optimism about the president's prospects of carrying Minnesota. But the enthusiasm of the party's foot soldiers provides a palpable basis for their optimism, as do other factors to be addressed later.