Battlegrounders
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PENNSYLVANIA: TOOMEY'S SPECTER [Chris Lilik 10/20 12:22 PM]

After a razor-thin US Senate primary against Congressman Pat Toomey, it looked like Senator Arlen Specter was going to have a cakewalk against Democrat Congressman Joe Hoeffel from Montgomery County (Philadelphia Suburbs).

While Specter is still expected to defeat Hoeffel, two recent polls suggest that things could be tightening up a bit.

The latest Survey USA Poll from earlier this week shows the race to be Specter 48%, Hoeffel 41%. The wildcard is 3rd-party candidate in this race is the Constitution party's Jim Clymer, who is polling at 6%. With some conservative Republicans backing Clymer rather than Specter, Clymer's numbers could be a factor if Hoeffel surges closer in coming weeks.

An early October Franklin & Marshall College Center for Public Opinion poll (Harrisburg Patriot-News) showed a single-digit race as well, with Specter 44%, Hoeffel 35%, and Clymer at 7%.

Many previous polls showed Hoeffel getting buried by Specter, but with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee recently contributing $500,000 to Hoeffel (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) it is certainly possible this race could tighten further. If Clymer can somehow break the single digit barrier (unlikely) all bets are off.